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frosty ground

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Posts posted by frosty ground

    Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I learned my lesson in 2005. A huge easterly with -15 uppers were forecasted across the whole of england with heavy snow around 4 days out only for it to be downgraded in the final few days before hand.

    We ended up with this:

    Rrea00120050228.gif

    Rrea00220050228.gif

    I distinctly remember Milan getting 50cm snow, southern france over 30cm and heavy snow in parts of spain. Fair to say I was heartbroken lol, but taught me one huge lesson about getting your hopes up on futile model fodder lol.

    here is the issue the 2005 eassterly was never down to deliver those cold uppers.

    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A week or so of cooler weather now seems almost certain from Wednesday this spell also looks a fairly dry one on both the GFS ensembles and now the ECM one of course that doesn't rule out snow cropping up in places

    15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png?6767676767

    There is a continued trend to something milder as the month ends and spring arrives but before we get there we have one last shot of cold and potential snow for winter 2012 / 2013

    Can you explain how the ensembles of a point in Europe says its dry in the uk?

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Update: MOGREPS now agrees with EC on scope and onset of blocking with longevity well into trend period (10-15d): cold & frosty; dry/largely dry for most with exception of E districts initially & showers tending to migrate progressively to more central districts with time.

    A classic easterly incursion then..... slowly building. Not seen one of these for a while....

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    You can post as many charts as you want, the reality is that the ECM has on 4 separate occasions this Winter shown (for several runs in a row) an Easterly feed developing, in it's output between +168 and + 240, and the reality is that only once has that come to fruition.

    I would love the ECM to be on the money as much as anyone else on here that loves cold...would.

    Come back to me next Thursday when we're under a cold feed and snow showers are feeding in off the North sea and then tell me how wrong I am

    Just a point that needs to be raised...... The GFS has also shown Easterlys this winter, usually around the same time as the ECM.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Aye, but it has nothing whatever to do with what 'some people want', CC...The fact remains, that not one, single 'stellar run' has yet come to fruition...Is a model 'good' just because it paints a pretty picture, at T+384?

    No model @ 384 is good, regardless the picture it paints!

    AS for Stellar runs, well you would have to define the term Stellar? Or basically do you define stella as what some people want?

    North West England Regional Discussion 09/02/13 20z ------>

    in Regional

    Posted

    According to the forecast wednesday so called event is a very quick snow event followed by haevy rain

    as an IMBY prospective i am not in the warning zone,and for the first time i am not bothered one bit.

    C.S,

    Just as well, I doubt you'll even see snow Wednesday..... Very much a transient event for everyone east and North of Manchester...... Do not be surprised to see the snow risk moved north!

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