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frosty ground

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Posts posted by frosty ground

    North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013. 12z onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by frosty ground

    Just to add to my post - the metoffice tweeted me confirmed the LP system that has plonked itself in the Irish Sea is likely to bring more snow. So no idea what Matt Hugo was on about.

    The low will pull the systems Westwards on it's northern flank. Because it's in the North sea the systems will pull away from the Northwest region. As the low sinks the systems will sink with it. If the low formed over our region and not the Irish sea then we would be a lot happier.

    Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by frosty ground

    No evidence other than 10 years or so of looking at the models! And we know that to get a decent cold outbreak in the UK everything has to be "just so" to overcome the natural mildness of our location. Generally if one of the models spots something that's not quite right then the whole house of cards collapses in short order.

    I'm not saying that will necessarily happen, just that I think it is more likely that GFS will flip towards ECM than vice versa. Fingers crossed that I am wrong though0!

    What about the situations which had model disagreement and still turned out cold....... FYI every cold spell / Snap that has come to pass has had model disagreement in the lead up to such events. The disappointment in missing out what was forecasts is probably remembered more than an actual events coming to pass, who cares about disagreement when the situation resolves itself?

    Hence the mild always wins argument is clearly snake oil.......

    PS I've seen the models for the last 10 years also!

    Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ian Brown is right that in general, if there is model disagreement, it is the milder solution that is the correct one, whether that is ECM, GFS, UKMO or whatever. You could say that at least 9 times out of 10 just because of the balance of probability. Any one missing ingredient and you end up with mild. That's just the reality of UK climate, much as I would love something like the GFS 06Z to occur!

    Following that logic, any forecaster would miss any upcoming cold spell....... Then again I can't remember too many occasion (If Any) Ian called a cold spell / Snap correctly that went onto occur. There is always an exception to the rule, even when the rule is a made up one.

    Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Latest from Ops Centre:

    " 4. Trend for Days 10-15 : Best estimate is to remain colder than average with frost more widespread than normal and some wintry ppn likely, especially in the N and E. Highest probs of milder, but wetter interludes are towards the W/SW.

    5. Discussion : There are major differences between EC and MOGREPS through this period. Initially these differences are not too great, with both ensemble suites having a signal for a brief milder interlude early next week, especially across northern Britain. Thereafter a blocked pattern is expected to develop, but there are large differences between MOGREPS and EC with the detail of the block, with EC ensemble having a strong signal for an E’ly, whilst MOGREPS has a S’ly. NCEP ensemble appears to be roughly split 50/50 E’ly and S’ly. The EC solution has been favoured at the moment, with slightly more support, but with the caveat of occasional frontal incursions into at least in W’ern parts of the UK."

    Just need to bump this back up the list.......... Please note this first hand account, I am not sure how this ties up with the post by Ian Brown.

    Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The METO are talking about wintry showers in far Eastern areas with rain and milder weather at times in the far South and West. Hedging their bets a little but they are obviously see as it being an end of the line easterly at best.

    That sort of situation won’t sustain for long and by synoptic implication the block will not be aligned how we then need it to progress an easterly across all parts. We would then have to have the retrogression to Greenland that GP is talking about to keep us on the cold side of the PFJ.

    I don't think the Met office are thinking that(but they are obviously see as it being an end of the line easterly at best.), Their thoughts were summed up by Ian F earlier and while the solution to the problem is twofold they back for now the ECM, but both outcomes are entirely possible?

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