[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Half hour change shows signs of this light precip

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

In fact more widespread than that. Worth watching

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Keeping an eye on another possible unforecast convergence zone developing between Tenterden and burgess Hill on last few radar runs.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Marie said:

Try and be positive , we saw snow , it’s been better than the last few years . I know it’s frustrating but fingers crossed tomorrow might give us a bit more  

Yep marie, and Brighton still has a fair chance tomorrow of an unexpected snowfall from the dropping convergence zone.  Another day of radar watching

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

16 minutes ago, craigore said:

I thought East kent/Kent was more in the firing line tmrow wth that convergence along wth east sussex.?

Yep, agree with that at cz drops south

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not buying GFSp for the weekend and Monday then Chino? 

Nope. I don’t rule that out, more that that scenario is too far away for close short term analysis. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

II’ve had a look at UKV tonight. Suggestion is that as the wind swings more NE a convergence zone pivots from the Thames estuary southwards, so the band will move southward at the westerly point as the night progresses. By midday tomorrow the pivot should be from the estuary to Brighton before moving even further east during the afternoon. So those areas in the pivot zone should get some snow depending upon the strength of the convergence and wind strength.  Perhaps 2-5 cm in some areas.

The last chance saloon for these areas methinks

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

For me the spell rates 7/10 for depth of cold and 3/10 for falling snow but only 1/10 for depth of snow. Hey ho. Still another day or so left for these to change. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Well hopefully when I get up a streamer has formed to surprise me. No doubt my snow body clock will ensure I wake up and check a few times during the night. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Interestingly, the light snow/ snizzle has picked up in intensity inland across the region south of the Thames in the last half hour. Don’t mind that trend

.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Whats interesting is here the snow is not really melting at all on the grass at least, and we have the lightest of dustings which melted in about 2hrs on the road.

I'm wondering whether the snow event I had 2 weeks ago which had snow on the ground for 2 solid days has helped to cool the ground down enough despite the milder temperatures before hand that once the snow and cold arrived again here the ground is just about the right side of things.

I doubt it Kold.  Grass is better at holding a colder layer between the snow and the ground - reversed insulation if you like. I have an area in my garden with small tufts of grass in between soil. And the snow stuck to the top of these, but not the ground surrounding them.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Everything is frozen solid here though...

 Yes, I was in east Grinstead this morning and noted that this had not occurred in the same manner, so elevation, being further away from the sponge effect of the water table and local geology appears also to play a part.  Lol, be grateful.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

The snow melt is 100% ground temps. I have just watched the phenomenon in my back garden.  The air temperature just above the ground is -1.2°C. When the snow hits the pavement, or bare soil, it melts very quickly.  However, where the grass and bushes are tall enough to offer a bit of protection from the ground, the snow settles, likewise outdoor window ledges and roofs. It also is sticking on manhole covers, and the outside door mat where bristles keep the snow away from the surface. I have a small paved area with steps, that I have noticed have air bricks underneath them. The snow has melted right up to the steps but stuck on the air brick borne steps - so the air bricks are providing a cold insulating barrier away from the ground to let this occur.

It’s no surprise really, with weeks of heavy rain, a warmer and saturated water table, and no significant harsh frosts prior to the snow, it didn’t stand a chance in these areas.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

It certainly looks at the moment that those in east anglia are not getting anything like forecast. Wait for any streamers.

but I would say so far a far weaker event than expected

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Now precip is drizzle. It took a bit of checking, but definitely rain drizzle rather than snizzle. Bloody cold out there too.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, OzzyUK said:

Do you mean rain to snow?

How many stages are there in your scale - assume the last is total whiteout 

Its stopped now but next level is white sleety streaks in the rain.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Your not out driving around at this ungodly hour, are you Ed?

Nope. But it is easy to pop out and look at the nearest car windscreen.. I would be arrested if otherwise lol.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Referring back to my earlier transition from snow to rain, we are at stage one.  Rain with icy blobs, that can be witnessed on a car windscreen.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Marie said:

will take your word for it I haven’t got a clue lol .Going to get a couple hours sleep as it’s still not ready to lay yet, hopefully a couple more hours of dropping temps & dewpoint will make a difference

Lol no sleep for me until I see a snowflake settle. Hard core

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Marie said:

Sorry I don’t have it , my weather station is broken , it’s still very sloppy snow but god it feels cold out there and the wind is notable now 

No worries Marie. The low pressure curvature should have sent the colder air around the back end first and you are confirming this. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

 

4 minutes ago, Marie said:

I’m in mile oak , portslade , it’s still wet snow but never the less it’s snow

This shows how the curve of colder air undercuts those to your east.  What’s you temp Marie and dp if you have it? 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

16 minutes ago, Marie said:

It’s snowing yay , lovely to see , I’m happy  

Blimey. Just rain here but I know the low pressure will have a curved cold undercut.  Whereabouts are you Marie? Higher up? 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

10 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Chino how much do you think is Sussex ppl can expect

It’s so difficult to forecast Tom.  I would expect you to get at least 10cm, but more with convective streamer alignment 

thats where the difficulty arises.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Latest radar is a thumbs up. And this doesn’t show western precipitation 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

So, can intensification from streamers enhance the snow amount in a dynamics situation.  Of course so higher goals expected, due to the models not being able to forecast this.  Signs are already there as well