[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Scandinavia output so much better by day 4. Marches the lower heights further west. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I can’t!

Ok lol me neither, slightly better profile over uk and importantly lower heights more west over Scandinavia.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

I wonder who can resist posting til day 4/5 comes up lol.  May stop the confusion often generated on here with these scenarios.  

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

We have seen such pendulum swings from the GFS previously, so wouldn’t rule out a swing back. GfS had been so keen on a strong easterly, and to see it being blocked by a stationary low is disappointing but no surprised to seasoned model watchers.. without cross model support I wouldn’t be surprised to see a nudge back for that pendulum - but probably no more than that. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

A bit of moderation advice for everyone.  It is only human nature for all to look at how the synoptic situation affects them at their location.  It is not a crime, or bias for anyone to do this - rather a natural response to those viewing the output. So, we don’t need to hear outcries of bias, selective viewing or anything similar.

When looking at whether someone says that it is a good or bad run it is worth taking into consideration their location alongside any output to get a better understanding of how that run affects them and influences their outlook. 

I am happy for any member here regardless of location to see the weather they desire, but I first and foremost will look at my own location first, and do not begrudge others doing the same.

Especially, as the timeframe we are looking at is not set in stone and subject to substantial changes, whether it be shifts north or south, or west or east. So, don’t get annoyed by anyone’s own location perspective, and if you are really unsure of how the output affects your own location then the best place to ask is your regional discussion area.

If we all do that, then we will be less stressed or annoyed about posters taking their own regional perspective about the model output and a lot more sympathetic to each and everyone’s own take.

It really isn’t that difficult to do!

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

@chionomaniac you went 24 hour’s early.

Never . The floodgates had opened previous frame, but the cold hadn’t flooded in yet.  

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Ecm t+168 should open the floodgates, unless it wants to join the GFS club.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

A lot of posts saying nothing at all and have been hidden or moved to this thread

 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

GFS 18Z. One word. Messy. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

I suspect that the cold air will be dragged down to the SE as the run continues and the north/south divide will reduce.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Not as clean as previous run, but certainly acceptable. Note lower heights are just a bit further away to the east.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

GFS looking fine out to 84hrs, more or less the same as the 12z run.

I think we are getting close to the point where at least for the north we are getting close to nailed on now. Still some worries I've got further south, particularly in the SE with the risk of a LP developing to our south and swinging NE/NNE towards the SE before the cold air has the chance to really set in down here. Luckily that could also bring the risk of snow as well into the region but the path is a fine line to tread.

However lets make sure we get the easterly flow in in the first place first.

Yep I agree with that. Slightly more flabby set up to T+102, but not much in it

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

So every 6 hours we are going to have to run the gauntlet of each model run until we get into a reliable timeframe.  I know, that no one on here will trust any output until we are within 2-3 days, as we have seen it all before and find that an exploding European low blows up mild air from SE Europe into the mix, or a shortwave blocks the easterly. So, it’s a matter of taking ‘one game at a time’ and hopefully we will get to where we want to be. First hurdle is T+120 to see the set up aligning for the easterly. Then we can worry about what follows closer to the time.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

I’m still chasing day 10 charts.....

..

Now we just have to see this reel in  

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I sighed relief when I saw the ecm T+120, because I expect the next frame to show an easterly across most of the country, with Iberian low deepening and moving NE

Sure enough

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

I sighed relief when I saw the ecm T+120, because I expect the next frame to show an easterly across most of the country, with Iberian low deepening and moving NE

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

12Z  complete opposite to 6Z lol. A little bit naughty with a deepening depression just SE of the SE next monday. That would be proper snow conditions right there.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Well, well, well. The 18ZGFS is truly a spectacular run. The -10°C 850 isotherm is somewhere over the UK for over 100 continuous hours.  Can’t remember seeing that before.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

3°C cold rain here. Not even a hint of sleetiness 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

Fairly cold at the surface, but not quite as cold as a good few inches snow cover which would inevitable drag cold inverted air to the surface, which was on the menu 12Z

Concentration for me would be on getting the major models agreeing on a cold outlook by day 5.  When that happens then perhaps we can look further down the line. Hope you are well stu

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

That’s an ok 18ZGFS gfs. It’s too early to see how severe or prolonged any cold will be and I am more concerned about getting the cold to our shores at this point than anything else. We know that with true cold outbreaks any mild breakdown gets pushed back when we are in the cold, but getting proper cold in first is the priority.  I think that the ECM will slowly nudge towards the GFS and vice versa to a lesser degree. I’d definitely rather be watching these Synoptics than a SW to NE jet racing across the UK, so will continue to watch with interest in the next few days.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

A couple of things regarding the ECM. This year it has been guilty of under amplifying the Atlantic. It took the longest to spot the possibility of a Greenland High. We have no consistency run to run either. The Arctic high is difficult to model, as is weak high pressure to the North.

The ECM has (historically) notoriously advertised Scandinavia blocks at day 10, that get weaker and weaker and dissipate by T+24. So, in a way it is better to see it flustering around and seeing changes within day 5, than hoping to see snowmaggedon charts at day 10. Small changes at this timeframe will have far bigger repercussions in the coming days.

And to edit, I still feel that it has the look of a loaded gun in the later stages, that will fire with those smaller changes in the earlier output.

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

Jeez

 

I think I have just witnessed a 'THAT GFS' moment. Blimey

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

These NH charts are as close to a synoptic nirvana that we wish for. I reckon they can improve too.

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

Looks like a lovely Atlantic undercut in the making too. And hitting super cold 850s.  Likey