[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

I have to say that I gave up a long time ago in looking for specifics wrt to run by run model  differences. With these type of Synoptics the main thing to look for is getting the blocking in place. Without this, anything other than transient cold is unlikely. So, block block block is the main thing. If this doesn’t lead to deep cold then we will be unlucky, but longer lasting deep cold depends upon this. Don’t be looking at short term just yet. I repeat from Earlier, a tropospheric modelled early Greenland block from tropospheric wave patterns is the true nirvana of possible cold in mid latitudes. Not Guaranteed. But not the wheel of fortune that a downwelling SSW provides. So if we have a Greenland block on all or most of the outputs relax. If we don’t then fret. History suggests that cold will flood south once we get a true block, so…..

Block, Block, Block…..

[Polar Vortex / Stratosphere Watch 2022 / 2023]

9 hours ago, Catacol said:

Given the long-term nature of the Kara High that we have seen in November - and modelling for at least several days of an increasingly strong feature in that area, it is good to see the outer reaches of modelling spotting the lagged impacts. I used to be solely a wave 2 junkie, and the BFTE context did nothing to shift me from that hunt....but a substantial wave 1 event initiated from the Urals and then extended by retrogression of the high to Greenland, giving the vortex a might big bottom-up hoof in the usually robust Atlantic testicles, is a scenario I'd be delighted to see played out. 

And with GLAAM remaining unusually high in a Nina season the potential to see block reinforcement is certainly there. MJO may even play ball again by mid to late month.

Question for you Chio as your brain is far bigger than mine (despite your fanatical allegiance to Klopp) - is there any basis for the mutterings on twitter about the Tongan volcano causing such a significant cooling impact in the SH stratosphere that a rebalancing in the NH is possible? My head begins to hurt when I try and make sense of energy budgets, time lags etc etc and the advertised increase in global stratospheric moisture levels of 10% caused by that single event. I'm a bloody historian and not a physicist and it annoys me that my knowledge rather stops at a basic grasp of NH dynamics.. but might chances of an SSW this year be enhanced by this? 

I wonder why Berlin has slipped. Seems odd - it was such a good site...

To be fair, I don’t think enough is known about water vapour entering the Strat  from volcanic eruptions in the SH to be sure of NH Strat responses alongside all the other factors. Would welcome a link to research papers that have enough cases and up to date data that have studied this. 

[Polar Vortex / Stratosphere Watch 2022 / 2023]

Regarding SSW, there are hints at the end of the runs of a wave 1 type pattern developing in the upper strat, so this needs watching for the end of December

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Just now, bluearmy said:

This asking why this upcoming spell may not verify ?  We don’t know how it will actually manifest itself so can’t really comment strongly 

what we can see is support for the forecast trop pattern high up in the strat which in my experience is a big plus 

This type of pattern verifies far better than a downwelling riskier SSW. Yes deep cold is always a lottery for this country, but an upwelling Greenland split are definitely the tickets I would want to have......

[Polar Vortex / Stratosphere Watch 2022 / 2023]

Its a big pity that the berlin site is down. Especially as we are entering such an interesting strat period right now.

So those of you who were around in 2010 will remember the upwelling splits that appeared in the lower strat which originated from (internal) trop wave based breaks, And now we are seeing the same type of pattern all over again with record low u winds at the 100-70hPa level.

 

u60n_100_2022_merra2.pdfu60n_100_2022_merra2.pdf

u60n_70_2022_merra2.pdfu60n_70_2022_merra2.pdf

 

This is at a complete contrast to what is occurring in the upper strat . Here the SPV remains at normal strength and highlights the disconnect between upper and lower strat. Long may this continue

u60n_10_2022_merra2.pdfu60n_10_2022_merra2.pdf

 

I have a fair bit of disinformation over on twitter about the possibility of a SSW on the cards - but it is mportant to pointout that internal wave break and split vortex has a completely dynamic process than a baroclinic collapse of the vortex brought about by the later season MT led wave breaks in which the SPV collapses from top to bottom - A far riskier way of acheiving Mid latitude cold.

 

So all in all a terrific propect for the start of winter with a risk of rinse and repeat throughout December before the possibilty of a SSW grows towards the New Year. 

2010 was a terific start to winter and I suspect 2022 will be as well. The trend is our friend, so I wont be looking at interrun differences with too much concern as long as the pattern stays the same.

Data Services

ACD-EXT.GSFC.NASA.GOV

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Available annual Meteorological data

PS if the merra charts dont come up use this site and look at mean zonal wind at 60N for all levels 

[Temperature Record Monitor Thread]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

And so the fallout of the hot spell starts. At home following a heat induced migraine and the leccy has just got cut. Looking at the uk power network I am far from alone

Live Power Cut Map: Information & Updates | UK Power Networks

WWW.UKPOWERNETWORKS.CO.UK

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Live power cut map for London, East Anglia and South East England

 

 

Just scroll into the map. It’s insane the number of power cuts at the hottest part of the day. 

[Temperature Record Monitor Thread]

And so the fallout of the hot spell starts. At home following a heat induced migraine and the leccy has just got cut. Looking at the uk power network I am far from alone

Live Power Cut Map: Information & Updates | UK Power Networks

WWW.UKPOWERNETWORKS.CO.UK

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Live power cut map for London, East Anglia and South East England

 

 

[2022 tornado events, reports and chat]

Supercell from yesterday. Five tornados bagged

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

Thats quite a nice chart  on thr GFS at T+114. 

 

Oozes potential

[Netweather Winter Forecast 2021/2022]

Hey Nick, What a well researched, clearly explained, detailed forecast that both seasoned aficionados and newcomers can understand in equal fashion. A difficult task in removing complex jargon but still completing a forecast that all ends of the spectrum can comprehend. No mean feat. 

And furthermore I can’t disagree with your overall direction  

looks good to me and I know how difficult this is to produce. So a big thank you and even bigger good luck.

I hope that you are far more successful than me!!!

 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

or here https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/sbuv2to/archive/nh/

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

2 hours ago, Catacol said:

Do we have any ozone grogs on here who can interpret this much better than me? MIA over on the snow and ice thread has produced an ozone chart showing high concentrations currently over the NH. Most recent image is here

My question is - how uncommon is it to see concentrations like this, towards the top end of the scale, at this stage in autumn? I work a lot through observation but must admit that following ozone trends has not really been an area of focus. The link between ozone and warming in the stratosphere I understand - the mechanisms of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and what constitutes a "normal" season is not an area of any expertise.

Any thoughts? Is this image unusual? 

HI C -

I don't know how long you have  got but historical ozone records can be found here https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/omps/archive/nh/

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Went on a little night time lightning storm chase with the main chase man and friends last night. Managed to get lots of pics of lightning And here are a few  looking south from Goodwood. 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

But why are the background drivers less clear in summer? They are the same ones apart from the strat influence.. 

Ive not noticed any different in the anomaly accuracy .. 

 

Talking of which, the latest arent an exact match for yesterdays, but still have a strong greenland high and that is not good news for summer

A big reason for less accuracy is the lack of strat polar vortex in the summer. This is replaced by weak negative u winds in mid  strat which turn positive the lower that one descends. Strong positive strat u winds in winter give a very reliable indicator of trop conditions at medium range. Probably the most reliable winter teleconnection.

Anyway, is Svalbard on a red or Amber list, because looking at the ECM 850’s at day 10 this could be a lovely spot for a warm holiday!

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

16 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah storms can become elevated over time... a bit bias but I'm personally not very impressed by the current observations / severity of the system. Early days yet tho.

Me neither, but have come to expect it over time.  Still a few more opportunities over time, and an excellent shelf cloud observed over Dungeness

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Nice back building occurring behind main band. And a little further west too.......

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

On an unmade road in Firle, nr Brighton. I can confirm that the rain is bastardlike, and the thunder is -1

Lol. There are far better roads around there to use!

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

25 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The surface based / mid level activity earlier has now progressed into elevated material confirmed by lightning elevation data of 40,000ft recently over the Channel.

Lol. The surface based storms all died. The storms from France earlier are giving me the usual miserable rain from the forward spreading anvil. New elevated storms are forming on the eastern side of the french dross and these have initiated because of the mid level destabilisation moving north, not because of the French storms. In fact, it is quite obvious that the fallout from the surface french storms have actually interfered with anything elevated forming further west.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

First signs of cells actually developing in the Channel now so upper destabilising starting to occur

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

18 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I have to disagree here, there is no reason why surface based can not evolve into elevated. That is quite common with Channel MCS systems. In fact, we should be doing the opposite. This initiation has provided an optimal environment for further development in the vicinity.

Additional stand-alone elevated initiation is also likely circa 1am + which is what I think you are getting at.

The initiation of the elevated storms is quite different from the initiation of the surface based ones over the channel. Otherwise every surface based storm leaving northern France would reach us still active as an elevated storm. And down here we all know that doesn’t happen.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

I think it is a case of ignoring the surface based storms over northern France atm. Our storms will come from the higher instability aloft later on

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Just seen a dp of 18°C over at headcorn aerodrome  on xc. That’s pretty juicy for the UK. Especially as I looked at the RH at various levels for this evening and there will be a lot of moisture up there

[Introducing The Salton Sea Buttes Volcanoes]

What a fascinating read, Brick. Thank you for going to the effort of writing about this. I will keep an eye on this area for activity on my earthquake apps.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Hey chio I disagree with those closing the curtains on Winter..its still to early and we just can't rule out another cold blast.. plenty of ens are showing those Heights in a better position. And personally I think its far to early to be talking about what kind of Summer we are heading for! At least 3months away.

Lol. Winter ends in a week. Wouldn’t rule out spring cold shots though

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Looks like there are no ice sculptured solutions in the offing in the foreseeable looking at the models. What a difference  from earlier in the winter when there were plenty, despite some saying it was a cold biased narrow minded view. Lol. It wasn’t- just a realistic assessment of what was on offer. Just as now is.  Back to the norm.