Matt Jones
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Posts posted by Matt Jones
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Severe Siberian icy blast Given the right conditions and decent fall it wouldn't be gone by lunch, but the main problem for us is getting the snow before lunch or anytime! Ice days are possible in March.
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feb1991blizzard I'd go along with anything up to late March even if it doesn't hang around too long anything is better than the rubbish we've dealt with in the so called winter months in recent years, get the right synoptics March can deliver just as much as January, even better usually here with lower North sea temps less moderation. Hard to see where it's coming from the latest outputs but still time for sure.
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Tim A Now finally will people realise snow settles on wet surfaces, how many times do you hear grounds too wet to settle, given the right conditions it doesn't care. Sleet n wet snow falling here at sea level, will not settle at this level though.
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Aiden2012 I think it would probably just be wet on the ground but you never know. 35m ASL might not be enough.
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Aiden2012 You would think cold miserable with wet sleet/snow turning to rain later.
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The story of most winters now snow to rain event mostly on higher ground, somewhere in Wales and around the Peaks usually do well, MO chuck out Amber warnings. Outlook looks poor though was really hoping for a proper blast of cold from the N and E, those lucky ones that get a good fall probably need to make the most of it.
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Was a dreadful decision yesterday to put the warning all the way toward the east coast, never looked like being anything other than sleet here at best, another drab Feb attempt at an easterly sees it finally get going at 384hrs dream on.
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9 hours ago, MIKE LEVITT said:
14 years now since hull had a heavy fall of snow.2013 and 2018 we had falls of snow but nothing special.its been virtually snowless since 2018.
Yes it seems to take a monumental effort to get anything in terms of snowfall around the Humber, low ground near the warmish North Sea our only hope is a very potent sustained Northerly or -10 uppers from the East, neither of those are common or likely in the next few weeks.
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Just now, mike57 said:
Current spare room/office view, stopped again but radar shows ongoing showers.
Looks good my daughter is jealous.
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Got down to -4 here and -3 currently as expected nothing has made it this side of the Humber. Band coming down coast seems to weaken before it gets here. Nice to hear East Yorkshire having a share though.
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17 minutes ago, Hullsnow87 said:
You think we’ll get some in bev and hull?
North York Moors, Driffield east toward the coast might do well, north side of the Humber usually fares better than the southern side, hope for a dusting at best I'd say. -2.3C now after a high of 3C today.
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2.3C here after -2C this morning. Lovely blue sky. Met have put out a weather warning for the east coast, just about in it here, not expecting much but maybe a few snow showers Thursday morning. After a glimmer of hope yesterday in the longer term it looks like we end up with a Euro high that gets flattened back south, way too much energy to the north.
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28 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
Embarrassing regional weather forecast on Good Morning Britain this morning. I haven't see something as bad as this. This is what happens when you don't do a live weather broadcast. The bulk of NW England was affected by snow as this was being aired.
These days I'd imagine these are just computer generated with no human input. Bit like the countless useless apps with have these days too. We need Ceefax and Oracle.
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30 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:
Barring a miracle this will probably go down as my second most disappointing cold spell of all time! Especially with the weeks of hype.
Many a cold spell seems to be tame when it finally does arrive, when viewing the models I only really get interested if it's showing -10 to -15 uppers from the northeast or east then expect something closer to -10 if it does arrive, so rare though. Unfortunately among all the hype that this was going to be an extended cold spell then don't worry only a mild blip, currently all I see is the azores high and euro high into Feb. Still time in Feb but who knows at this stage.
Some light flakes in the air here, so did manage a few flakes from this spell.
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4 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:
Tiny tiny flakes starting in pocklington
That area around York to the west of you suddenly seems to have intensified a bit.
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The warm sector has come in to play more than originally forecast a few days ago, partly due to the front being a little further north, 850's rising to -3 for many this evening could make things very marginal, higher ground looks ok though, rain later at lower elevations. The snow that is currently falling with uppers still at -9 so all good for those with precipitation right now.
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6 minutes ago, Love Snow said:
It’s the only warning I’ve ever seen with no snow symbols for the warning days
Those symbols are notoriously bad aren't they, usually at odds with the descriptive forecast.
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11 minutes ago, clee_snow said:
Cold and sunny here in Cleethorpes, clouds to east full of snow but not pushing west
Unfortunately from a fairly promising position about a week ago where the forecast models were showing more of a direct northerly we have in reality ended up with NW winds today so those snow showers have stayed out in the north sea, todays synoptic chart has ended up with the pattern shoved just slightly east.
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13 minutes ago, cowdog said:
Met thinks something's up.
New Warnings issued for Wednesday & Thursday. Wednesday one covers, everywhere in region bar a bit of South Yorkshire and East Yorkshire.
I see that as Tuesday's original event/front from the north west as it starts from midnight Wednesday through to noon. Poor really as it states higher ground only and not expecting anything to settle at lower elevations, this week did unravel a bit with Monday seemingly likely to be the coldest day or at least the coldest upper air.
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Nice clear blue sky here, can see the clouds out in the sea if you look east, a cold 1.8C currently after a low of -0.7C. Bit disappointing to see Met mention snow mainly to high ground on Tuesday.
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Not looking too good for us east of the A1, needed less westerly component to the winds, it was concerning when the initial northerly got watered down, key thing missing here was when the push from the north became less apparent and LP to the SW nudged the pattern a little.
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ECM day 10 throws up a plume from the south, going to be a big difference in temperature compared to this Tuesday coming if it's anywhere near correct, still cold next week no doubt but have to say it's at the lower end of where I would have hoped just a few days ago, once the breakdown started appearing it hasn't let go, first signs had to be the weakening of the Greenland high.
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5 minutes ago, ribster said:
To be fair I don't understand this either, it's been cold since Friday last week, snowed Monday and frosts several nights.
It has been colder than of late for sure and for the UK as a whole somewhere it has snowed and there has been frost but not everywhere, frost free here all week due to cloud and drizzle, so just felt average for January, from late Sunday it does look very cold and will be an interesting week and from what is shown in the models will change no doubt so some will have a surprise snowfall. As we view the model outputs though you can't help but look for a breakdown, not saying it will happen but that is what is predicted currently.
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GFS wants to bring us racing through the alphabet with storms between 22-26th Jan. Snow chances looking restricted to Mon-Thu for some next week Northern Scotland looking most favoured.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Not convinced by those charts showing late in the GFS run, to me they are consistent in one thing, flushing out the 850's, looks mostly cold and wet unfortunately, this time of year would much rather be seeing a block of cold 850's approaching from the NE.