Matt Jones
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Matt Jones replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not convinced by those charts showing late in the GFS run, to me they are consistent in one thing, flushing out the 850's, looks mostly cold and wet unfortunately, this time of year would much rather be seeing a block of cold 850's approaching from the NE. -
Severe Siberian icy blast Given the right conditions and decent fall it wouldn't be gone by lunch, but the main problem for us is getting the snow before lunch or anytime! Ice days are possible in March.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Matt Jones replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
feb1991blizzard I'd go along with anything up to late March even if it doesn't hang around too long anything is better than the rubbish we've dealt with in the so called winter months in recent years, get the right synoptics March can deliver just as much as January, even better usually here with lower North sea temps less moderation. Hard to see where it's coming from the latest outputs but still time for sure. -
The story of most winters now snow to rain event mostly on higher ground, somewhere in Wales and around the Peaks usually do well, MO chuck out Amber warnings. Outlook looks poor though was really hoping for a proper blast of cold from the N and E, those lucky ones that get a good fall probably need to make the most of it.
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2.3C here after -2C this morning. Lovely blue sky. Met have put out a weather warning for the east coast, just about in it here, not expecting much but maybe a few snow showers Thursday morning. After a glimmer of hope yesterday in the longer term it looks like we end up with a Euro high that gets flattened back south, way too much energy to the north.
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These days I'd imagine these are just computer generated with no human input. Bit like the countless useless apps with have these days too. We need Ceefax and Oracle.
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Many a cold spell seems to be tame when it finally does arrive, when viewing the models I only really get interested if it's showing -10 to -15 uppers from the northeast or east then expect something closer to -10 if it does arrive, so rare though. Unfortunately among all the hype that this was going to be an extended cold spell then don't worry only a mild blip, currently all I see is the azores high and euro high into Feb. Still time in Feb but who knows at this stage. Some light flakes in the air here, so did manage a few flakes from this spell.
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The warm sector has come in to play more than originally forecast a few days ago, partly due to the front being a little further north, 850's rising to -3 for many this evening could make things very marginal, higher ground looks ok though, rain later at lower elevations. The snow that is currently falling with uppers still at -9 so all good for those with precipitation right now.
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Unfortunately from a fairly promising position about a week ago where the forecast models were showing more of a direct northerly we have in reality ended up with NW winds today so those snow showers have stayed out in the north sea, todays synoptic chart has ended up with the pattern shoved just slightly east.
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I see that as Tuesday's original event/front from the north west as it starts from midnight Wednesday through to noon. Poor really as it states higher ground only and not expecting anything to settle at lower elevations, this week did unravel a bit with Monday seemingly likely to be the coldest day or at least the coldest upper air.
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ECM day 10 throws up a plume from the south, going to be a big difference in temperature compared to this Tuesday coming if it's anywhere near correct, still cold next week no doubt but have to say it's at the lower end of where I would have hoped just a few days ago, once the breakdown started appearing it hasn't let go, first signs had to be the weakening of the Greenland high.
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It has been colder than of late for sure and for the UK as a whole somewhere it has snowed and there has been frost but not everywhere, frost free here all week due to cloud and drizzle, so just felt average for January, from late Sunday it does look very cold and will be an interesting week and from what is shown in the models will change no doubt so some will have a surprise snowfall. As we view the model outputs though you can't help but look for a breakdown, not saying it will happen but that is what is predicted currently.