Matt Jones
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Some marvellous pictures this morning, was a marginal event but on the southern and western edge of the front where the coldest air remained and with elevation it produced the goods. Nothing like 2010 event which was more widespread without the marginality. Still the wrong side of it at sea level near the east coast just sleet/wet snow at best and thoroughly wet on the ground.
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Yes the 2018 BFTE was a massive disappointment here, I expected more from that. I didn't expect anything from this though as it seemed pale in comparison. What ever happened to northerlies that lasted and brought troughs to increase shower activity from the north down the east coast, I lived in Essex between 1979-2004 and remember those troughs even making it down there in a straight northerly in the past, but now seem extinct. I really don't think we will get much in the way of snow in the next 12-18hrs, the precipitation will die out as the cold uppers come back in.
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
Matt Jones replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let's be honest it's poor but it's made a better job than most of the winter, we are just entering the 2nd quarter of March it is perfectly capable of delivering the goods given decent synoptics. Probably had my 2nd deepest snowfall since moving to my location in 2004 at Easter only beaten by December 2010. -
As many of us said though this would end up being rain/sleet at low levels, only a few days ago the forecasters were saying even to low levels, so often gets downgraded.
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Always likely wasn't it, they don't seem to get that it rarely snows on the east coast from a battleground situation where the uppers become marginal and predominately the wind blows off the sea. Just looked at the uppers for tomorrow on the GFS and they go positive sure they were -5 or so yesterday.
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Matt Jones replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A decent straight northerly can deliver a little snow here, I think the problem is they often look like a strong northerly 5-7 days out and get watered down to a weaker NW wind or as today has ended up an extremely poor almost light and variable wind, got up to 7C here today and doesn't really feel that cold. I expect Thursday will be a disappointment in most of Lincs and the Humber area, battleground events just don't deliver here. -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Matt Jones replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I see the mouth of doom is evident for the Humber again, one thing they probably have got spot on.