Matt Jones
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I think a covering from the showery easterly is most likely, I imagine as always with showers there is going to be some largish variations on depth but don't expect too much on low lying areas. It does look increasing like the SE, EA could be affected by that LP in the channel so that seems to be why the warnings of the possibility of heavier snow there. From my point of view I think falling snow and a light covering would be might expectations of my area.
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt Jones replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree from Monday uppers are good for snow just think the snowfall will not be as widespread, depends where any streamers align. Angle of attack looks good too, although in my 17 years in this location I have not known any battleground situation from the SW bring snow, either too far south or the cold uppers get mixed out before precipitation gets here. Probably a different story if we had colder air than projected in place to begin with, like say feb91. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt Jones replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
While everyone gets excited about snow charts for 1 week away! The ukmo this morning not quite as good as last evenings, yesterday we had a better alignment to get a more north of east flow later in the run. Today it’s earlier output shows Sunday with a easterly but with a more southerly influence hence the colder uppers are slower to come in, ecm this morning is the same in holding the coldest uppers off until Monday when we pick up a straight easterly. No point getting excited at this point with any battleground/breakdown event as its too far out. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt Jones replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Liking tonight's UKMO Sunday through to Tuesday 850's looking good. Not liking GFS runs of late though wanting to bring less cold uppers in from the south and been consistent with it's breakdown from the SW, it can't be ruled out but hope it's got this all wrong. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt Jones replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good to see a much better run by the gfs18z. Breakdown is poor but more importantly it brings in a decent easterly spell for most and colder uppers for a time. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt Jones replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I understand the disappointment here but it can't be denied, the ECM has moved toward the GFS scenario, I would love some falling snow for my location just maybe a dusting. But gone are the deep cold 850's we saw in the last 24-36hrs. More runs more changes to come hopefully for the better for all of us. Been a member on here since 2005 and am 41 years old and a keen weather freak all my life so I am a little offended as I see have a decent understanding and experience of previous cold spells and non events. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt Jones replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-4 uppers flooding in at 168 that’s what. Certainly not the same as the last ecm runs. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt Jones replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Big move to gfs on this latest ecm, margins very tight for anyone south of Scotland. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt Jones replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Spot on, it's dicing with death, whilst the uppers are good Sun/Mon probably relatively dry then a weakening of the cold is possible from there. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt Jones replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not so sure about the UKMO 144hr, we don't seem to be progressing for days now we have had the same chart at 144hrs. Not convinced it has the legs from there to produce deep cold from the east. -
I feel your pain, nothing but cold rain here all winter, last decent spell here was December 2010, managed a foot of snow then. Even the so called beast from the east 18 delivered little snow here as it was cold but fairly dry. I always feel low lying areas next to east coast here need -10 uppers+ to deliver anything substantial. Best hope has got to be early next week but even that is on a knife edge.
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Model output discussion 24/01/21
Matt Jones replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cold and snow is by no means a certainty here, this 12Z GFS just shows there are many options on the table later next week between more cold rain and very cold snowy weather from the east or NE. Still a long way to go and many more changes, fine lines here are going to make a big difference. Don't like the latest GFS run, UKMO good but no certainty it will maintain a cold snowy outlook post 144hrs. 288hrs and GFS puts us back where we started cold rain. -
Model output discussion 24/01/21
Matt Jones replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's a fair point and just as much as milder spells (as recently happened) can be eroded so can cold spells. Quite often I see pattern locked in or the block is not going to be shifted that easily but all too often cold spells can be short and blown away quickly. From the GFS perspective I think the hope is the breakdown as shown later in the run will perhaps go under the block and prolong the cold spell. If we get a bit of snow in the starved eastern areas I would be happy. -
Model output discussion 24/01/21
Matt Jones replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's really not the greatest of runs from the 12Z, it's pretty dry and cold and the uppers run out of steam due to the more SE source. It goes wrong around the 204 hr mark when we cut off the northerly source. Hopefully it's wrong this time. Don't get me wrong I'd take this over what we were seeing a few days ago but it's not going to deliver big time. -
Model output discussion 24/01/21
Matt Jones replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like -15 at best into the SE corner, those mega cold uppers rarely make it across the North Sea, even from that set up relatively dry here in NE lincs. -
Ambient Weather WS-2000/ fineoffset HP2550
Matt Jones replied to trebor's topic in Weather stations and equipment
Received my weather station, set up and has been working fine until this morning it randomly recorded a temp of -0.6c for an hour the actual temp was around 7c. Does anybody know if you can edit data to correct? -
Ambient Weather WS-2000/ fineoffset HP2550
Matt Jones replied to trebor's topic in Weather stations and equipment
Thanks for all the information, have gone for it and ordered the Watson 8686 from Nevada Radio. -
Ambient Weather WS-2000/ fineoffset HP2550
Matt Jones replied to trebor's topic in Weather stations and equipment
Thanks for the information, can I just ask what the difference is between HP2550, HP2550/1 & HP1000SE or are they all broadly the same. -
Ambient Weather WS-2000/ fineoffset HP2550
Matt Jones replied to trebor's topic in Weather stations and equipment
Thanks, so this is looking like a pretty good option without having to buy from Australia, have been looking for a station since my WMR200 has all but broken a year or so ago. Thanks for highlighting. -
Ambient Weather WS-2000/ fineoffset HP2550
Matt Jones replied to trebor's topic in Weather stations and equipment
Is the idea here to buy this for the control unit and buy the Ecowitt sensors to go with it? Are the sensors with this not as good? Thanks -
Yorkshire and E England regional thread 30 Jan 2019 onwards
Matt Jones replied to damianslaw's topic in Regional
Bad news is the wind off the sea is raising temps, up to 1c now.