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Matt Jones

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Everything posted by Matt Jones

  1. Matt Jones
    Yes the snow charts as we know can be very misleading to what reality will look like.
  2. Matt Jones
    A few days I was talking about the northerly being a 48 hrs affair it's looking like less than a day now before the lows steam in from the SW, as ever potential to miss out from the north then a sleety mess from the SW. NE Scotland, NE England probably do ok in the brief north winds.
  3. Matt Jones
    Much better from the GFS06 in the day 7-10 region, I'd stick on that. Though not so sure on the Azores high showing it's hand.
  4. Matt Jones
    Is still think beginning of March is fine, lower SST have produced more snow here in March which often scuppers us early winter, I just don't think the synoptics are good enough, granted they are good but not amazing. November 10 obviously the exception.
  5. Matt Jones
    I just want to shove that chart south though to give us a better flow.
  6. Matt Jones
    It's possible had a few occasions where as it started to get dark snow that had been falling on wet ground suddenly starts to settle it's often that finer balance here, 10 miles away in the wolds they've all got their sledges out.
  7. Matt Jones
    Your location like mine is one that can miss out from all angles in this situation, a few inches seems possible though if the most favourable scenario from above comes off.
  8. Matt Jones
    One thing I have noticed from this mornings runs is the less cold uppers associated with the LP system moving down from the north, the -8 or so uppers forecast a few days ago get mixed out at closer range, probably ok for higher ground but I would think rain and sleet from this system for low lying and coastal areas. Then relying on wintry showers behind the front which may be short lived as the battleground situation potentially sets up, still a 90% bust for my location.
  9. Matt Jones
    That would be something if we got 3 or 4cm of snow right on the east coast from that LP running down, that surely is best case scenario for east coast. Relying on you ECM.
  10. Matt Jones
    No you've got to aim higher -15 uppers 0C maxes and a foot of level snow, if only!
  11. Matt Jones
    Very true but often that cold air hanging on just prolongs the agony without the white stuff, I feel the blocking high is slipping away too far north and west of us to give us a decent spell. My main point really was that it can be shunted away quickly but agree it sometimes deflects and keeps us in the cold air.
  12. Matt Jones
    Totally agree, frustratingly it feels like the cold air get's shoved out the way quickly far too often and that it can happen like that. Remains to be seen though either way.
  13. Matt Jones
    I have never understood the comments of the cold block will be hard to shift, it is simply not true as illustrated by the UKMO model this evening at 168hrs the azores high ridges in shoving the cold block east. Well lets see what ECM brings later as others have said no certainty that any chart is going to be correct at day 7.
  14. Matt Jones
    About 100 miles further north on the east coast it wasn't great, had a few cm's. Way it goes I suppose.
  15. Matt Jones
    216Hrs a good example of how the cold uppers get shoved out the way, got to prepare yourself this may only be a 48hrs spell.
  16. Matt Jones
    Struggling to see perfection here, surely that would be everything shoved South and east a little, it's slipping a bit west for my liking, allows some less cold uppers to creep in, that minus 12 850 well to the north of us. 192Hrs is better.
  17. Matt Jones
    Sounds great but it's a forecast, maybe a cold/snow ramper on duty today. Judging by the forecast models though they will be as clueless as we are.
  18. Matt Jones
    After looking at this mornings runs nothing yet to get over excited about, really not keen on the battleground scenario so often it's a bust then you have nothing to fall back on, convective NE'ly or straight Northerly is what I want to see. ECM in it's latter stages may look impressive but it only takes a shift north and your left with nothing, can still see potential but currently I'm 65% bust on this and 90% bust for my location.
  19. Matt Jones
    A lot of faith put in the ukmo model but countless times it has failed us at 144-168 hrs, concerning is the lack of push south of the really cold air to the north with no certainty it will after 144hrs, battleground not really that good for many areas with the very cold air not in place initially. Really want to see the cold uppers flooding in from the north, we shall see.
  20. Matt Jones
    This must be where the tabloids get their forecasts from, really fed up with going onto the internet and seeing their constant drivel. For me the forecast of a good wintery spell is 50/50, I trust these forecast models as much as car salesmen.
  21. Matt Jones
    Question is will these decent looking charts still be there in the morning, I made an error with my comment on the UKMO this morning, it was a good run, saw a few comments in here and presumed it was poor, though my general comment on it stands, nice to see it's held firm with HP around Greenland, for now.
  22. Matt Jones
    Totally agree, frustrating how many times ukmo is commented as a great run but in reality the next few frames would be poor then slated the next day because it looks poor. In reality yesterday’s GFS 12z was the only run I’d be happy with in this location if it would only happen like that, but in reality we probably all knew what we’d wake up to as it seems to be a repeating pattern. Expecting more changes in the next few days though. Good or bad who knows.
  23. Matt Jones
    It was surprising at the time, in 2018 spell we had it cold & windy with snow blowing around more than anything but never really got going and in this location we pretty much always avoid anything coming in from the west (storm Emma) so relatively dry here.
  24. Matt Jones
    Personally I would want a 5 star one here as neither 2013 or 18 really delivered anything other than a light cover of snow here, obviously though those years did deliver for others, late Nov 10 was the last what I'd call decent snowfall here. So I am hoping for some raging NE/E winds to be showing in the models soon.
  25. Matt Jones
    To be fair many on here were talking of too much energy over the top and that's the most likely outcome from here, GFS was not really a million miles away just underestimated this. It's surely where a bit of human interpretation comes in, really we all knew the most likely outcome here unfortunately. Still hope further down the line.
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