Matt Jones

Fax chart for Tuesday shows the front across our region. Probably not masses on it though.

Yeah the system from the SW looks well and truly out, wouldn't have delivered here but Leeds looked good for a time, still hope that that slider from the NW will edge further south but those systems so often turn out to be weaker features that only affect the NW of the UK. As usual Scotland is the place to be next week. With nothing likely coming in from the east could well be a bust in my location, at best a dusting or slight cover and with cloud and wind even a frost may be a push here, needed winds more in the east to make it anywhere near a 2010.

I too am liking the UKMO this morning, some nice cold uppers in there and regarding dry I do think there will be the odd opportunity for snow Mon-Thu, though larger amounts will be reserved for northern Scotland, N York moors probably do OK. Really looking like the jet fires up from next weekend so got to hope there is snow in the Mon-Thu period.

Good N'Easterly and low uppers required here for anything decent, straight northerly can bring a little snow here too, location a big factor here your N & W of me so a NW wind is probably better for you I agree. Again LP from the SW can be good for your location but certainly not mine, 179m ASL you're already in a good place.

Does look that way currently doesn't it, northerly blast is too short lived to give us anything and attacks from the south fall short, cold 850's on Monday but on the rise from there. I imagine that snow in the south will be reserved for the north western edge of the front with many missing out. Have to say the prospects after next week do not look great, back to wind and rain from the Atlantic.

Shouldn't be and hope not but it's there on the run.

So often happens that way, we keep the cold a little longer but suffer a poor breakdown, GFS hinting at less cold air moving in Sunday week, hopefully can squeeze a few snow showers and a few frosts before then, some will do a lot better than that though.

In the shorter term there is no denying the initial northerly blast is swiped away faster now than modelled a few days back low 850's getting mixed out quickly before reloads from the north but how potent will that really turn out to be is the question. Would have much preferred a straight northerly sustained a little longer but they seem hard to come by these days.

Really not impressed by the charts this morning, they may still deliver something for higher ground in the west of this region but the prospect of deep cold and a lengthy cold spell is looking unlikely, heights to the NW get eroded quickly so we could find ourselves back to wet, mild and windy weather sooner than anyone predicted.

After viewing the ECM the EWC have cancelled their meeting. Flicking through the ECM 850's its an atrocious run but just one run I know!

Decent charts for those with elevation and west of the A1, but we had charts covering the UK in sub -8 850's for a good few days before now so the ECM for the country as a whole is a poor one, corrections south and less progressive needed for an improvement tomorrow hopefully.

But low lying eastern areas will have rain from this too even north of the Midlands in an easterly, sea temps always scupper when uppers become marginal.

The initial northerly is starting to look tamer and rather short lived on the 12z's, this has to be taken into consideration when viewing the subsequent cold push from the north for midweek too, really not keen on where the UKMO and GFS are heading.

One thing of note looking at the 850's today is we start to see the warm sectors more clearly, Monday sees a large part of Eastern England on the wrong side of marginal before a renewed push of colder 850's from the north Wednesday/Thursday. Always a tough ask to get snow from these marginal set ups if precipitation does move in off the north sea, especially low lying areas.

What about "one for the bin", when I log in at 5am after getting up for work in the morning I want to see some stunning outputs.

That's fair enough, maybe it's an IMBY thing that I personally have never got snow here from a battleground event, so would rather a proper cold blast from the north or NE.

All the focus on getting the cold 850's from the north and we totally underestimated the warm plume coming up from Spain at 240hrs on the ECM! Seriously I would imagine many that have suffered flooding will not be too happy with the trend of more LP systems, a settled proper freeze which seemed more likely a few days ago would have been much better.

Totally agree locked in and all roads lead to cold are two of the worst phrases that are used, there is no such thing. On the face of it ECM looks ok but personally this is not where I wanted us to be, outputs are fraught with danger.

Barring the UKMO which has a nice 850 chart at 144hrs the GEM & GFS look poor and would struggle to deliver for most, have not seen 168 chart for UKMO but a slight shift in pattern could scupper this cold spell, UKMO has a habit of looking deceivingly good at 144-168 range, really got to hope UKMO and ECM hold onto their current outputs.

Great run there if it verifies, loving the heights to the NW, if I'm being picky I'd like the winds veering east a touch more for showers to filter in off the North Sea. 10 days away still a lot of changes to come in reality. Compared to the 0Z where the cold uppers had mixed out, on this we keep -8 or lower going.

The problem here is we are losing the key ingredients for a decent cold spell, as others have mentioned Greenland heights show at longer range but often diminish as we get closer. I just think we are in for a colder spell of weather, as in more like January should be compared to what we've had in recent weeks then back to something milder.

I agree probably wasted but can’t really compare as we seem incapable of this kind of synoptic in January and when on a rare occasion we do it still struggles to deliver or sustain. Even if by some miracle we managed 4” of snow here overnight early April it would be the best event here since late nov/dec 10. I am not suggesting that is going to happen though!

When I lived in Essex pre 2004, there were numerous reports on Look East of Norfolk receiving snow from decent northerlies, seem to have got rarer that's for sure. Oh dear these charts are often so wrong. I did just see GFS is off on one again trying to bring an easterly in later on.

Looks good, sun coming out here, looks very different here though! Given the right situation March produces the goods as well as any winter month, no deep cold for it to last but that could be exactly the same in winter. Repeat performance same areas broadly, but won't be the same depths you'd have thought.

Not convinced we will see much snow in the next few weeks barring in the north and high ground. 2013 we had a blocking high around Greenland and a much colder blast than this week brought in -10--15C uppers from the North and east, fronts around the south coast brought snow and I seem to think Kent got hit hard from convection, wasn't too bad up here but was cold.