Matt Jones

Being greedy even the GFS12Z the best run of the lot doesn't really excite me, brings in a pretty brief spell of cold uppers, 6Z was really nice looking but as many have said unlikely to materialise.

It always seemed likely that it would turn milder in time for Christmas but it's still a fair way off yet and could easily be delayed. Annoying having such cold temperatures for a week with no snow likely here though. Models currently showing how easily the cold gets shunted away despite many believing a so called cold block is hard to shift. As for a so called great NH profile that can change in a blink of an eye too. Just to add there is a common theme of UKMO looking good, surely this is because it doesn't go out as far.

Any if it's cold enough, I usually find -10 uppers off an east of NE wind ok for here, but a North or NW can usually be ok in a -5 upper. N Cambs usually fairs well in a North easterly and inland enough to be less affected by a warmish North Sea.

Probably the same outcome in winter. With sea temperatures around their coldest now, never delivers anytime of year here from an east or ne wind unless we get proper cold uppers. Though generally you have less of a sea track down there anyway.

Spot on, ECM nowhere near as good as yesterday, what started as a northerly turned NE and now almost SE track, with the LP core over us the colder uppers pushed further north and somewhat mixed out in the South. General trend cold though but perhaps never cold enough for snow for many. Saw the UKMO 144hrs this morning when I got up for work and it's broadly the same.

Whoever is right or wrong here, still struggling to see how we can eek much snow out of this, far north and higher ground probably do well though.

The difference between GFS & ECM for next week is massive, I hate the thought of a halfway house as it really doesn't hold any interest from a weather point of view, but now that GFS seems to have dropped the cold signal probably a rather boring average (ish) week to come next week

I don't buy the better synoptics theory needed just yet, into April yes but I don't think these kind of synoptics forecast would deliver in Jan/Feb either. Current charts are just not good enough, we are caught in the middle neither here nor there. How many times have we been desperate to see this kind of pattern forced north & west to deliver the cold uppers, I really do think they are destined for SE Europe again.

Yep that's the problem with being a small island in a battleground, small shifts big differences in weather, with so many battleground failures I keep my expectations low, if it comes off it's a bonus if not I save on my heating bill.

Expectations have seriously lowered even for early March if we are to be excited by a few wintry showers and a chance of rain preceded by snow from the west. Based on current output I'd say that was a fair assessment. Early March for me still has the ability to deliver but just not seeing anything substantially wintry yet. I suppose this is the new normal now scrapping around for bits of sleet & wet snow.

One thing is for sure it's going to turn cold by this time tomorrow almost UK wide, but the second blast to me remains doubtful, I would not be surprised to only see a glancing blow followed by a warm up even though the latest GFS remains cold well into it's run presently. Incidentally the near useless met office symbols have heavy snow for NE Lincolnshire first thing tomorrow morning, unsurprisingly no mention in the text forecast!

I suppose it depends on what you define as exceptional, I don't see it as exceptional, just taking my location as probably being 5-6C below it's average for 3 days. Those snow events rarely materialise but can't be ruled out.

I get that but downgrades were always less likely to affect Scotland, yes I think Scotland and northern hills will get some snow.

Missed the 6Z that must have been worse then, the reload is quickly moved away by the High that then sits over us. Certainly cold for this time of year but struggling to see it as exceptional as it looked a few days back.

The downgrades both short term and long term keep coming for cold and snow, looks like a northerly toppler now in comparison to a few days back.

Yes I agree ECM looks colder this morning, I think the 144hrs UKMO chart looked poor for a decent prolonging/reload, and GFS considerably worse for reloading than last nights. I expect to perhaps see some falling sleet/snow here early next week but nothing more, agreed areas further north with elevation will do well. I really wanted to see some more extreme 850's but that was always being greedy! Just viewed GFS 6Z and think that looks a little colder than 0Z.

Some very positive posts regarding wintry weather this morning, to me when I viewed both GFS & UKMO models this morning my immediate thought was a large watering down compared to what I viewed yesterday evening, once the initial short northerly blast is over both models mix the uppers out for any reloads.

I think I only look at meteociel each day to see the nails fall.

What amazes me is how we are simply unable to pull off a potent straight northerly, either goes one way or the other. Suppose we are only a small target but you'd have thought it would hit occasionally. Fair enough it's not a done deal either way but it does become rather predictable.

Had -6.5C first thing this morning, coldest night I can remember here since Dec 2010 when we hit -11C. Come over dark here now with snow in the air.

Coming down in Immingham now, sky gone very red, oh no that's the refinery.

Had a couple of heavy showers today but sounds like just over the other side of the Humber has fared well. Inch at best on grass and some surfaces. Sun has melted most off roads and paths.

I don't think it really matters here the end result is less cold air by Thursday that takes any snow risk away for most. If I can get a covering out of this cold snap I will be happy enough. For me the UKMO 144hr didn't look good yesterday evening or this morning.

Yeah I think I'd back the UKMO model, but who knows.

UKMO looks great, better 850's than this mornings run and maintains a strong easterly wind throughout. Just looked at GFS model not so good though.