[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Being greedy even the GFS12Z the best run of the lot doesn't really excite me, brings in a pretty brief spell of cold uppers, 6Z was really nice looking but as many have said unlikely to materialise.  

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

It always seemed likely that it would turn milder in time for Christmas but it's still a fair way off yet and could easily be delayed. Annoying having such cold temperatures for a week with no snow likely here though. Models currently showing how easily the cold gets shunted away despite many believing a so called cold block is hard to shift. As for a so called great NH profile that can change in a blink of an eye too. Just to add there is a common theme of UKMO looking good, surely this is because it doesn't go out as far.

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

20 minutes ago, Stav said:

What wind direction gives you snow? I am in N Cambs but only just moved here do I do not know what delivers round here.

Any if it's cold enough, I usually find -10 uppers off an east of NE wind ok for here, but a North or NW can usually be ok in a -5 upper.  N Cambs usually fairs well in a North easterly and inland enough to be less affected by a warmish North Sea. 

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

40 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Looks a backtrack to me and too NEly rather than shorter sea track ENEly as previously shown inland areas look best off away from SE unfortunately for us. Even the Harmonie only shows sleet here sods law this setup has occurred in Spring! Still goodluck to those rural/hilly regions further west

Probably the same outcome in winter. With sea temperatures around their coldest now, never delivers anytime of year here from an east or ne wind unless we get proper cold uppers. Though generally you have less of a sea track down there anyway.

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

I think that as often seems inevitable in these diverging model situations that a 'half way house' is what actually happens and what seems to be happening here.

The low being progged further south but not far enough for a clean solution...thus pleasing no one with just miserable weather...we shall see..

Spot on, ECM nowhere near as good as yesterday, what started as a northerly turned NE and now almost SE track, with the LP core over us the colder uppers pushed further north and somewhat mixed out in the South. General trend cold though but perhaps never cold enough for snow for many. Saw the UKMO 144hrs this morning when I got up for work and it's broadly the same. 

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

Whoever is right or wrong here, still struggling to see how we can eek much snow out of this, far north and higher ground probably do well though.

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

The difference between GFS & ECM for next week is massive, I hate the thought of a halfway house as it really doesn't hold any interest from a weather point of view, but now that GFS seems to have dropped the cold signal probably a rather boring average (ish) week to come next week

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

I don't buy the better synoptics theory needed just yet, into April yes but I don't think these kind of synoptics forecast would deliver in Jan/Feb either. Current charts are just not good enough, we are caught in the middle neither here nor there. How many times have we been desperate to see this kind of pattern forced north & west to deliver the cold uppers, I really do think they are destined for SE Europe again.  

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not the best set of 12zs!!back to square one!!

Yep that's the problem with being a small island in a battleground, small shifts big differences in weather, with so many battleground failures I keep my expectations low, if it comes off it's a bonus if not I save on my heating bill. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

Expectations have seriously lowered even for early March if we are to be excited by a few wintry showers and a chance of rain preceded by snow from the west.  Based on current output I'd say that was a fair assessment. Early March for me still has the ability to deliver but just not seeing anything substantially wintry yet. I suppose this is the new normal now scrapping around for bits of sleet & wet snow. 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

One thing is for sure it's going to turn cold by this time tomorrow almost UK wide, but the second blast to me remains doubtful, I would not be surprised to only see a glancing blow followed by a warm up even though the latest GFS remains cold well into it's run presently. Incidentally the near useless met office symbols have heavy snow for NE Lincolnshire first thing tomorrow morning, unsurprisingly no mention in the text forecast!   

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

4 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

It's still exceptionally cold for April. As it is we're talking about a week or so of way below average temps. 12z even has a minor snow event for Central and North England as part of the Northwesterly after the Arctic blast. 

I suppose it depends on what you define as exceptional, I don't see it as exceptional, just taking my location as probably being 5-6C below it's average for 3 days. Those snow events rarely materialise but can't be ruled out.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

It really depends where you are in the u k, I can’t see any downgrades for the north, specifically Scotland..now, Scotland is a part of the u k and can’t be ignored..good luck to them with this imminent arctic blast   ️..it’s one for the books ooop north!  

I get that but downgrades were always less likely to affect Scotland, yes I think Scotland and northern hills will get some snow.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

2 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Huh? Are you sure you're not watching some early December 2020 run? 12z has a slight west correction and brings also back the reload next weekend. 

Missed the 6Z that must have been worse then, the reload is quickly moved away by the High that then sits over us. Certainly cold for this time of year but struggling to see it as exceptional as it looked a few days back.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

The downgrades both short term and long term keep coming for cold and snow, looks like a northerly toppler now in comparison to a few days back.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

1 hour ago, LRD said:

I think ECM and UKMO have actually slightly intensified the cold (albeit the very coldest uppers have been pushed out to Tuesday now for the south if ECM ensemble guidance is correct). A mean of -8 uppers in London in April is cold whichever way you look at it

You could see quite a lot of wintry-mix action in your location. Coldie folk are getting quite excited about this upcoming spell and in Scotland, NI and the north of England (especially higher parts) they're probably right to be despite some slightly over-hyping it. For some parts of the north this could be a relatively long-lasting cool/cold spell but, as you say, the coldest air looks like it might get mixed out for England and Wales after 2 or 3 days... but that is FI and could be wrong of course. However, what I'm seeing in the models this morning for lowland southern UK I'm not seeing anything THAT unusual. Cold for the time of year, yes, but nothing extreme. At least not yet. Models might start to see something for the south in time. For now though, for the south, it looks like we'll get an interesting squall line early hours of Monday and then some hail and rain showers, maybe a flake or 4 of sleet on occasion, in between sunny spells. Nuisance cold with a nagging, constant breeze

This is a bit of an IMBY post. You'll have better chances of seeing snow in Lincs I should think

Yes I agree ECM looks colder this morning, I think the 144hrs UKMO chart looked poor for a decent prolonging/reload, and GFS considerably worse for reloading than last nights. I expect to perhaps see some falling sleet/snow here early next week but nothing more, agreed areas further north with elevation will do well. I really wanted to see some more extreme 850's but that was always being greedy!

Just viewed GFS 6Z and think that looks a little colder than 0Z.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Some very positive posts regarding wintry weather this morning, to me when I viewed both GFS & UKMO models this morning my immediate thought was a large watering down compared to what I viewed yesterday evening, once the initial short northerly blast is over both models mix the uppers out for any reloads.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I thought it was 'nailed on'!?

I think I only look at meteociel each day to see the nails fall.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

What amazes me is how we are simply unable to pull off a potent straight northerly, either goes one way or the other. Suppose we are only a small target but you'd have thought it would hit occasionally. Fair enough it's not a done deal either way but it does become rather predictable.

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Had -6.5C first thing this morning, coldest night I can remember here since Dec 2010 when we hit -11C. Come over dark here now with snow in the air.

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Coming down in Immingham now, sky gone very red, oh no that's the refinery.

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Had a couple of heavy showers today but sounds like just over the other side of the Humber has fared well. Inch at best on grass and some surfaces. Sun has melted most off roads and paths.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

I don't think it really matters here the end result is less cold air by Thursday that takes any snow risk away for most. If I can get a covering out of this cold snap I will be happy enough. For me the UKMO 144hr didn't look good yesterday evening or this morning.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

2 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

But remember.. it had the limpet low over Glasgow earlier in the week, and it corrected 350miles SE in the end.. If that happens to this monster low. It will take it over NW France. And snowmageddon for the South and S Wales..

Yeah I think I'd back the UKMO model, but who knows.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

UKMO looks great, better 850's than this mornings run and maintains a strong easterly wind throughout. Just looked at GFS model not so good though.