mcweather

ECM out to 168 and it's more of a waft than a beasterly

Well when the ECM raised the possibility of an move to an Easterly late last week I raised one eyebrow now I have raised the other one as well. The interesting thing looking down the line from tonights 12z op is that in its latter stages it shows how the cold could become locked in and drive the jet south . Shades of 47 in the final few frames.

Superb post Tamara. It should be remembered that any synoptic output that we can view is governed by the interplay of the various global and regional parameters and drivers (MJO QBO Tropical convection and many others) Longer range forecasting is necessarily based on trying to work out what weighting to give these various players in any given situation or as shown last year will one be so dominant as to negate any kind of weighting given to others. Those who try as you gp and others do to understand these and give some kind of guidance as to the POSSIBLE broadbrush synoptic outcomes should not be derided or put into some kind of us and them situation because that lowers the level of the debate in this often brilliant thread to a level unworthy of us all. It is all about learning and hopefully learning together so that our understanding can help us recognise which synoptic developments to take seriously and which not to, thus eliminating a lot of stress each winter.

So yet again the models tease us first flashing us a Scandinavia high then whisking it away.. It seems that some kind of cold northwest or northerly outbreak is reasonably nailed on although how potent is still open to question. Beyond that as IF has pointed out is anyone's guess with low confidence in any option whilst such wild operational swings occur. More than ever a case of wait and see. Hopefully we'll be pleasantly surprised but after many years model watching I wouldn't,t count on it.

My eyebrow is somewhat raised by tonights 12 ecm although I will be happier to see that exact development inside the 120 mark then I might raise my other eyebrow as well. Even allowing for Tamara's cautionary tale of things unconducive to prolonged cold and snow . If we were able to squeeze a cold and snowy week out of this otherwise rather boring (so far at least) winter a lot of us on here would be pretty happy.

Afraid to say I remain far from convinced by the midweek model madness. Same thing happened a week ago only for major backtracking away from the coldest options to occur on the Thursday. Something both the gefs op and control seem to doing again this morning. As with any stellar charts that come along Unless they'come within 120 hours then treat them for what they. Winter porn and nothing more.

GFS 12Z actually has sub -5 850,s further south at 174 than the 06z did.

I know it can be difficult to manage expectations after a stellar run like the 06ZGFS and had it come completely out of the blue I wouldn't give it any credence at all but the truth is that it hasn't there have been a growing number of GEFS ensemble runs since xmas showing similar evolutions to that which the 06z has shown. perhaps another thing to hold onto as well is that even a watered down version of the 06Z would still deliver what many on here are hoping to see this winter.

Unlike last year With none of the atmospheric drivers running having a big enough effect over and above any of the others. This winter more than any other it is completely pointless looking beyond seven days. I think we will see some genuinely wintry weather but it pop unexpectedly up in short time frame

Well the gefs and ecm seem to still have plenty of Xmas spirit this morning. merry Christmas to all my fellow snows searchers, yes even Knocker and Sid. I have a feeling Sid will want to wrap up his Christmas nuts come the new year

Just thought I'd check out the 18z before going to bed. Looks to me like. Santa,s already been. Happy Xmas everyone.

Is that the sound of toys being picked up and put back in prams I can hear. Just when Christmas was starting to look a bit dull model wise the ECM GEM and even the GFS try their best to deliver a nice present

Yes Crewe we know that but Iceberg is talking about the potential to move on from that point as per some of the gefs

Yes rather like happened at the beginning of Dec after after the meto contingency forecast went for cold and blocked and the longer nwp went for mild now the update has gone for basically mild the longer term gefs at least start to trend chillier and blocked. One should remember that Ian F did state at the start of his posts last night that there was very low confidence in the on going monthly and seasonal outputs so writing off winter on the basis of something even the professionals have little confidence in seems a tad premature to me.

THankyou again for your input Ian. The way I see it we unless the ecmwf monthly backs glosea5 tonight we will have the two best lrf tools in the world going in somewhat different directions , yet presumably from very similar initial data. I think what people need to understand is that both of these systems are still to a certain extent experimental and this is perhaps not made enough of when the the likes of John Hammond do their presentations on the BBC website.. There is no doubt now that the December part of the forecast is completely blown. Yes some may argue that there was blocking but when you go out of your way to say that the blocking will be in a position to bring more easterly or northerly outbreaks with an increased risk of ice and snow and in fact the blocking brings you a mild Dec running some 2.c above normal then one has to see it for what it is. This is not to attack he Meto office or Ian or John Hammond in any way because I have the utmost respect for the organisation and those that work in it .THe meto and ecmwf are least trying to push the science forward. But just to say that we are nowhere near where we need to be yet to make consistently accurate seasonal forecasts..

A great post Tamara. Your posts have always pointed out that despite the various LRF,s (including the Meto) that there were always things that could go wrong and as a veteran of 56 winters I know that if it can go wrong it probably will. As Nick Sussex often points out in his posts we need so many things to fall into place for us to get a sustained cold shot and then even more to fall in place for widespread snow away from the usual suspects on high ground in the north. Living in central south Dorset within a couple of miles of the English channel I always start each winter from the stance that I probably won't see any long lasting cold or snow at all and then work forward from there. That way anything I do get is a bonus and I would advise any members living in lowland southern England to do the same. Every so often a great cold spell comes along and occasionally some heavy snowfall but they are much the rarities. The recent spell between 2008 to Dec 2010 provided some great winter weather for many but also I think raised the expectations of many in lowland England to a new higher level of expectancy than is justified by our natural climate. In my own locale Dec2010 was the coldest and snowiest ever ( colder and snowier than 1890 or 1981) but I didn't kid myself that was the new norm because the vast majority of my other 56 winters weren't like that at all . I am lucky enough to have memories from 1963(just) and the snowy winters of the 1980's along with the greatest weather event of my life, The amazing southwest Blizzard of Feb 1978 the latter being an element that all lowland ( and especially) southern lowland snowlovers should hang onto and that is that you don't need a 63 or a 47 to have a phenomenal snow event of historic proportions . The models in the short to medium term look pretty dire but they can and most probably will change and with just a little bit of luck they will change enough to give lowland southern snowlovers a nice surprise at some point during the first few months of the new year.

yes mwb models showing pretty much unanimous agreement on a mobile westerly out look through the Xmas period. Time to forget the models and go off and enjoy the seasonal festivities for a while and come back after Xmas I think when hopefully some of the signs from Glosea and ecm46 will actually start to show themselves in reality instead just existing in a computer's miscalculations.

As you say Nick the ECM outlook is the best in terms of how one or two tweaks might spice things up a little if the colder pool over Europe is able to advect west slightly quicker that could lead to someone getting a nice surprise come the big day. I am reminded to a certain extent of xmas 1993 when out of a seemingly hopeless situation we actually managed to squeeze out a white xmas here in Dorset at an elevation of just 45metres above sea level. I'll never forget walking home from a lockin at my local in the early hours of Christmas day and realising that what I could feel landing on my bald patch was not rain but snowflakes. Then waking to gently falling flakes on xmas morning with about a centimetre on the ground. Picturesque but not travel inhibiting, just right. incidentally that was the last time I actually saw snow falling on xmas day. Although I did have a six inch cover of previously fallen snow in Dec2010.

Quite so Nick one only has to look back at the archive charts for numerous cold spells to see how the weather regime has done a complete turn around to cold from some very unpromising looking set ups

Thanks Karlos I stand corrected, although I stand by the fact that come later in December the output could look very different indeed

Hi Steve Ian F suggested this afternoon that what Matt actually mean't was Jan and Feb as in his words the EC seasonal December update doesn't actually cover December so that actually gives us three weeks and a few days by which time the output could look very different indeed.

God bless you Allseasons-Si How good to see some optimism when so many others are showing model fatigue on 5th December ( yes 5th December). Really am surprised at some members here not even a week into meteorological winter and seemingly already in mourning for winter 2016/17. Surely we know by now that December rarely delivers deep cold and snow for much of the UK. We were spoilt 2008 through 2010. The GloSea signal for blocking has always been for the 2nd half of Dec at the very earliest. So what if it turns out to be a week or two late surely better to get some real wintry conditions in the heart of winter and so what if it is 13 or 14c next week. As another post has pointed out it was 14c a couple of days before the snowiest winter of the 20th century for gods sake. A mild week in December means absolutely sod all in how the rest of the winter will turn out. Honestly this place beggars belief sometimes.

Whilst some posters set about slitting their wrists at tonights output ...........................................Its amazing sometimes when you look at old weather charts and you find a day with a great big chunk of the vortex over western Greenland and a low pressure at 965 over southern Greenland with south westerlies blowing across across the UK along with a big azores high ridging up by Iberia and to your surprise you find its not December19th 2014 but December 19th 1962.....................................remember guys its always darkest before the dawn.

Well yet another day that has proven that taking any single operational run at face value is completely futile. This mornings GFS06Z was a pure cold and snow lovers dream but facts are that You really need the GFS to be show something like that from run to run for a few days at least before giving it any credence whatsoever.

yet again some interesting runs this evening. I think one has to be philosophical about model viewing in November. Much as us coldies would love some lowland snow in November especially having been spoilt as recently as 2010 with ice days thrown as well even down here in Dorset. But if one wants the greater prize of a decent and reasonably long lasting winter then one needs to remember that no great long lasting winter ever started in November and held all the way through to the end of Feb. 1947 didn't start until late Jan and 1962/3 didn't really get going until the final week of Dec 62, indeed a look at the charts around the 19th/20 Dec 1962 would give you no sign that the coldest winter since 1740 was in the offing. May be its just being a veteran of 57 winters but for me especially in the south of the UK the watchword has to be patience, unfortunately we live in an order it today and get it tomorrow society which in which patience has become a dirty word. On a personal note I would happily take what's on offer for the next two weeks and have the real stuff kick around mid December as per IF and Glacier Points professional suggestions. Again winters starting in November or early December like 2010 or 1981 don't really hold. give me a mid to late December start for the real action any day. GP''s post earlier today is very inciteful especially given the north hemisphere view at the end of the 12z ECM and some of the GEFS charts around the same time. One can understand after last years record warm December that people want to get things kicked off cold and snow wise as soon as possible but our greatest winters show that patience shown at this time of year can pay huge dividends down the line.