mcweather

We could of course get both scenarios Tamara. Fronts coming giving some of us a real dumping then retreating as the high takes real control leading the way for further temporary frontal incursions etc etc. Now that would be a classic, a record feb to end the record mild. Wow.

You've got it in a nutshell there S4. Feb 1978 was the most disruptive weather event here of the last 40years. Not even the storms of 1987 and 1990 casued as many problems.

Have to agree with you there John. It is early days but the best set up we've seen in the reliable timeframe for many a long year. There is huge potential especially if the low progged to be out near Rockall on thurs decides to slide SE wards down the edge of the block as in days of old. A nightmare to call knowing the how ignorant the media reaction that will follow if the forecasters go small and it comes big and conversely if they go big and it doesnt go big in the south east.

Interesting to note that whilst we are all wrapped up in the end of the week scenario that 0600 also progs a similar scenario in the longer term as well. FI I know interesting and worth keeping an eye on as well.

According to Dr Richard Wild of Weathernet. The top man in the UK when it comes to snowfall the top three falls Undrifted depth are. Feb 15/16th 1929 200cm Dartmoor 9/13th March 1891 150cm Dartmoor 18/19 Jan 1881 150cm Dartmoor

Dont worry arrow my hopes arent too high. Just great to see cracking output for a change. However the fact remains that in these rare synoptic situations the incoming fronts and dpressions tend to stall and even stop historically they stall over the south and southwest of England. Indeed the top three deepest snowfalls of the last 140 years have all occured over southwest england.

Very fascinating Ian. This scenario has Feb 1978 written all over it to me. I personally feel that even the meto and( apologies for mentioning it) countryfile forecast have been to progressive in the north-east movement of the precipitation. The last chart on the CF forecast was a dead ringer for Feb 18/19 1978. On that occassion here in Dorset we got 18 inches of level snow blwon into 25 foot drifts !! Ive only waited 29 years to see another chart with that sort of potential.

Looking into FI on the 12z. It does look like a reload situation and if it came off a reload with a half decent Scandi high. Ah if only................

Quite so John. That is what they are paid for. However meteorology and particularly weather forecasting is not an exact science, it is in the main about probabilities and likelyhoods. As you say the discussion between the forecasters based on the very latest info could be very interesting and lengthy......... and could still go mamaries skyward.

Looking around at various forecasters outputs today I have a feeling that the battle between Mild and Cold may well be more drawn out than they were anticipating and may not necessarily just be the steady sweeping north-east of the mild air that was being mooted yesterday. I would expect the countryfile forecast tomorrow morning to reflect this with the forecaster going for the mild to win out but with the low confidence card being played quite strongly on this. In a sitiuation like this very small changes in the direction of the low can make all the difference. A change of just 50 miles north or south could make the difference. Over the years I have noticed that situations like the one currently developing can change quite rapidly and very often not in the way that the forecasters or the models were going for. After my loss of interest on thursday eve I must admit I am once again very intrigued.

Fair points tws. My reply would be that sst's may well have made it more difficult for severe winter synoptics to develop but there is a differnce between ''more difficult'' and ''impossible''. Which is why I added the piece about hard winters getting rarer rather disappearing altogether. We are certainly not at that stage yet.

This winter so far has made no difference to my belief about gw. GW is happening.This winter is without doubt very mild (so far). This is perfectly in line with Met office forecast who called no cold weather until late in the winter and possibly March (still much more a winter month in my book than december has ever been). However we are not yet out of the age of the severe or hard winter. In Philip Edens Daily Telegraph book of the weather published in 2003. He takes the best available research from climate scientists and models etc and puts together a notional set of weather headlines from the 21st century. The first one funnily enough is set on Feb 12th 2008 and suggests that Britain is going through its worst winter since 1979 and that if lasts a bit longer it could rival 1963. This as Philip Eden says in the book is not a date set in stone but it does show that those with far more knowledge on the subjest than any of us on here are reasonably sure that Britain will at some point soon see a very hard ( compared to recent times)winter. As it says in the book. Global warming does not mean a continuous upward drive in Winter temps. Ther will be some parts of the world having colder episodes and Britains ( Northern Europes) turn will come. Real winters like 47,63,79 are not dead just getting further apart timewise.

quite so blast from the past if one is finely balanced upon a high wire one can fall either way. and however one descrobes it a fall from a high wire is never marginal

Hi There Dorset snow you are quite right there, a quick look at the Met office uk Rainfall series show that the winter of 47 and the winter of 79 were both wetter than either the 61-90 and 71-2000 averages.

To be honest Snowmaiden I agree with you about their honesty and kudos, I,m just concerned that their reputation gets a battering, the general public holds weather forecasters in only very slightly higher regard than estate agents and politicians.

You can hear them down pub right now. '' Hello mate, I see the met office have changed their winter forecast yet again, I dont think they've got a clue really!''. To be fair the Met office would argue I,m sure, that they are just being just being open and honest about the the process of long range forecasting and how difficult it is. The problem however from a public perception point of view is that each time the forecast changes througout the autumn it may seem to negate the validity of the previous release. After all they are not weather anoraks like us. Would it not perhaps be better for its reputation if the Met office were simply to offer these early prognostications to it's private clients who being from weather dependent industries will have a greater understanding of the nuances that are involved rather than releasing two or three changing forecasts to the public. Who when all is said and done, would probably be far far happier with one definitive forecast for the winter being given out the first week in December. This would give the Met office the chance to take all of the developing factors into account, It would still be a long range forecast because it would look right through to the end of february but having taking as many of the developing factors into account as possible it would be more likely to be as accurate as any longe range forecast can be. Just a thought!

Hi everyone. yet another interesting debate taking place here, and yet again kicked off by a snippet on TWO. After 35 or so years of watching charts develop. One thing I have noticed is that particularly with winter charts things can change very quickly, both from very promising to very poor as often seems to be the case but also conversely from not very good to bloomin marvellous from the cold and snow lovers point of view. For those who can be bothered why not contrast and compare the historic charts on TWO for 27th Dec 2005 with those of Dec 23rd 1962and try spotting the differenc? For those who those who can't let me tell you that they are extremely similar ( indeed almost indentical) with the UK trapped on the western side of a high pressure system place just a bit too far south over Scandinavia to bring us the severe cold that many on here hanker for. Yet one of these situations developed into the coldest winter for 260 years whilst the other fizzled into January nothingness and thats what makes it interesting. One more observation as well, for genuine sustained cold and/or snowy conditions we need blocking to the North and East not just over Scandi.

I agree with you about the rock and the hard place Dawlish. However if the METO put more weighting into the supposed warming trend they will almost certainly never forecast the next worthwhile winter that we do get with any accuaracy and imagine the outcry then!

Fair point to make there Dawlish but the NAO was only one factor in a number used to put the forecast together. Presumably If the other factors are strong enough then being a tad out one will not automatically invalidate everything else. In a similar vein, all those who say it is impossible for us to have another half decent winter in this country seem to forget that if the wind blows from the east or north east for long enough at the right time of the year then GW man made or otherwise will have very little bearing on what happens.

Devloping and experimental maybe but never the less good enough to pin last winter down very well. Although the present forecast says that at the moment things are on a knife edge, it is clear from the comments about emerging signals and continuing developments that they expect it to come down on the cold side. I expect the November update to confirm this and probabay put a little more meat on the bones.

A very interesting Met Office winter forecast this time round. The inference being that although things are on a knife edge at the moment, they feel that the 'further developments' they mention will take in a colder direction rather than a mild one. I expect that the November update will confirm this and probabaly put a bit more meat on the bones.

Hi everybody thought I,d dip back into the forum to see if winter discussions are up and going. Great to see that things are already up and running. Some very interesting points already being made as to whether there will be perhaps one outstandingly cold winter month this time round. The snow lovers amongst us would very much hope so. Winter lover though I am I,m afraid I have to agree with the thought that a winter like 63 or 47 is probably beyond us now. However the snow loving side of me is always buoyed up by the fact that the deepest and most disruptive snow I have encountered in my life came in February 1978 which had an England and Wales value of 2.1C and which although cold by recent standards is not yet unreachable. In that particular month it was the middle two weeks that were extremely cold and snowy, the beginning and end were mild. In reality now I think that sort of spell is probabaly the best we can hope for and would certainly make for a memorable winter even if the rest of the time was indifferent. Id rather have a fornight of real winter stuff in the middle of a generally wet and windy winter, than weeks on end of the psuedo winter we endured earlier this year.

Thanks for your hard work Ian and a fair forecast I think. I also concur with your thoughts regards possible pattern set ups for next winter. In the meantime for Winter lovers everywhere I recommend Paul R Browns excellent article in this months Journal of Meterology in which he looks at and describes the synoptic set ups during the winter of 1963. Beware though, some of the charts are practically pornographic if snow is your thing Thanks again Ian heres to next winter