mcweather

It will be interesting to see tonights ecm ensembles and whether this run sits on the mild side.

Same here at Winfrith. Where's the 8 inches of snow on the Purbeck Hills that Alexis Rogers promised us yesterday on South Today, thats what I want to know. Thats One extreme and two severe weather warnings that have gone completely wrong here inside a week.

Have to agree with you there Phil. I,m not sure that the Atlantic has really got enough oomph at the moment to do much about that high. Come the weekend I think the models will likely be showing another push from the east or northeast.

Just when people thought it might be safe to use the M word. ECM tells the Atlantic where to get off.

Last sub zero month was feb 1986

For what its worth my take on the tonights charts are that the ECM has it pretty much nailed. Experience has shown us all that in cold set ups like this it always pays to back the ECM against almost any GFS scenario. Interesting devlopments this weekend and again next week in the south. ( A touch of the 1947's there ). I think what we need to bear in mind at the moment is that this is rapidly turning into an cold and snowy winter of perhaps historic proportions and as such some of the usual things that worry us don't really apply this time round. In our "normal winter scenarios, the Atlantic is usually still very strong and just gagging for a chance to rush back in. This is simply not the case this time round and one of the reasons why this could go on to be quite an historic winter. Finally We are often told to back the form horse and the form horse so far this winter is Glacier point whose teleconnections analysis has been spot on in forecasting all that has happened so far. His current analysis suggests that the cold will win out come mid January and if its good enough for GP then its good enough for me.

Tonights glorious ECM run was a mild outlier. Never mind 1963 I,m thinking 1740 or 1684 :lol:

Have to say as a Dorset guy. I am pretty unimpressed with the Met Office today. I am usually very supportive of them and have defended them in this forum and others from unwarranted attacks. However to release an Extreme weather warning regarding up to 40 cms of snow and then change it less than 6 hours later seems crazy. We are after all talking about an extreme weather warning here not just a weatherwatch. There are schools and workplaces that have decided not to open down here on the strength of the original warning. If there was that much uncertainty in the movement of the low it should have been stated in the release. I,m not just saying this because I,m going to miss out on the really deep stuff but because it will lower peoples belief in extreme weather warnings in general if they can go awry at such short notice.

Yes but the ECM isn't a col/ snowy bias model. Its what the Met office us for the longer term forecasting. By the way on a more general note Just seen tonights ecm ensembles and the ecm12z was NOT a cold outlier there were plenty of colder runs.

That interesting BB, but its not the GFS that most of us are getting excited about at the moment its the ECM. Fair points made by Ian Fergusson though. Modeling the precipitation in these stalling front scenarios is always a night mare. Hope you get some snow soon.

Not really BB. The so called forecast snow event for 29/30/31st was never better than marginal south of the M4 in my opinion any way and I have thought this all along. The ECM run is entirely plausible and also backed up by NOAA in the states.

Have to agree with you there Steve. I have been watching charts on the internet for the last ten years and tonights ECM is the most staggeringly cold and snowy I have seen and that includes all the fantasy crap served up by GFS over the years too. The interesting (and worrying) thing is that we are looking at an entirely plausible scenario.

I wouldn't be so sure Bad boy a matter of 50 miles difference on approaching fronts could leave the south with plenty of snow rather and rain or sleet.

Just seen the BBC weather for the week ahead and you know what it looked nothing like the GFS would have you believe. Well Well Snow in Wales and the midlands in the run up to new year then south of the M4 for new years eve and new years day. :lol:

Many thanks for that Ian. Nice to have some input from someone with the very latest output. I look forward to the spicy 6-10 stuff as well. Thanks for taking the time to post

I couldn't agree more Tamara. I still think that this is the more likely eventual outcome.

Quite so Tamara. A voice of reason at last.

Before the 00z gfs run induces too much wrist slashing. Can I just remind everyone what the Met office who are always ultra cautious in there outlook are saying. UK Outlook for Thursday 31 Dec 2009 to Saturday 9 Jan 2010: On Thursday there is a risk of further sleet and snow in the south and east before it moves away southeastwards. This will allow a cold northeasterly flow to develop across the UK with wintry showers in northern and eastern areas. Some central and western areas enjoying drier, brighter spells. Staying frosty in many areas overnight. Friday and the weekend period look like being in a cold northerly flow with snow showers affecting many areas, especially northern and eastern areas. This will lead to a widespread and sharp frost. The following week looks cold especially in the north with wintry showers here, and possible rain, sleet or snow encroaching from the southwest at times. Overnight frosts are likely to continue. Updated: 1204 on Sat 26 Dec 2009 Having lived through more winter spells than I care to remember. The one thing I have noticed is that the northerly extent of the encroaching fronts from the south are nearly always initially over egged and then corrected southwards as the degree of stalling is always difficult to forecast exactly. To my amatuer but nevertheless experienced eye. An extended cold spell is still very much on the cards.

As a veteran of many of the cold and snowy winters fduring the 60's 70's and 80's. I have to say that the current set up reminds me very much of the winter of 1978/79. We even have the possible prospect of a new year blizzard just like we had back then. Very interesting times ahead I think.

To be honest I think what the ECM is showing tonight is not the slowing down of the Atlantic coming in but the birth of the next cold spell. tonights ECM is very reminiscent of the christmas period during the winter of 78/79. Take a look at the GFS kartenarchive and spot the trend.

Thanks for your input Nick. Concise and interesting as ever. I have a feeling there could well be a few surprises in this unusual situation.

Believe me 80's weather you weren't the only one.

Latest Meto 6-15 day outlook says cold right through to boxing day. They don't buy the gfs christmas breakdown at all.[]

I,m with you on this one Teits. There are some people on other sites talking about the christmas warm up shown in deep FI on this mornings 06gfs as if it is already nailed on. If the gfs ensembles had existed at christmas 1962 there would no doubt have been runs suggesting that the cold would break down by new year. ECM ensembles looking good.

I couldn't have put it better myself Paul. Being almost 50 years old I have often felt something almost akin to a sense of guilt about having lived though synoptics like these in the classic winters of the past whilst so many of our younger members have had to endure the weedy winters of the last however many years. This as you say is what model watching is really all about. Nice to see that again the vast majority of the gfs 12z ensembles want to keep it cold and snowy right through to christmas and beyond.