mcweather

I think you have a point there Watcher. I think what a lot of people understand that the seasonal forecast has to be very broad brush in its approach but the Meto could help themselves a lot by giving more explanation as to how they arrived at their conclusions be they mild or cold or average.

Hi TWS A very interesting piece. I,m not sure if have it already but my former colleague at WeatherNet Ltd. Dr Richard Wild completed his Phd in 2005.It is entitled, A spatial and temporal analysis of heavy snowfalls across Great Britain 1861-1999. I'm think you would find it very interesting if you don't already have access to it.

Great storm pics there Chassisbot. Good stuff.

Have only just come across this brilliant and interesting thread very interesting stuff. Keep up the great work

Personally I don,t enjoy long hot summers because they nearly always end up turning humid and sticky which is my least enjoyable kind of weather. Having said that the legendary summer of 1976 was great because the air was so dry. So even on the days when it was up around 90f it didn't feel horrible, recent hot summers have had a great deal of humid weather when even temperatures in the mid 70's f have felt grim compared to the dry heat of 1976. Hope you get a great day for your wedding though Stoke.

Not quite. During the research for my recently published book about The Blizzard of 78 the figures that came to light for Princetown were 60cms whilst the higher parts of Exmoor reported 90cms of level snow!!

Heavy snow has been falling here in central south Dorset for a few hours. Weymouth was cut off according to the radio a few minutes ago. A37 Dorchester to closed as well. Here at Winfrith we have about 4- 6 inches on the ground. Not bad for aweather station a mere 45 metres above sea level and within 3 miles of the channel coast.

I think that just about sums it up SP. The interesting thing is that the models can't seem to tear them selves away from the cold scenarios which keep popping up from time to time. We shall just have to wait and see.

I can't help but chuckle to my self a little. If the GFS were showing what the ecm is showing everyone would be saying I'll beleive it when the ecm shows it. Now the ecm delivers some dream synoptics all be it a little way out and everyone is saying its not supported by the gfs which was roundly condemned by many last week as a completely useless model. you couldn't make it up

Seems to me we are getting into one of those situations where FI is much closer than usual and as JH has just said it will be a while yet before we see. exactly how things could pan out. This actually reminds me of the run up at this range to the previous cold spell when the models wavered somewhat before eventually all coming in behind one of the colder options. It would not surprise me at all if this is what happens again here. We may well have to wait until well into the weekend or even monday before it all become clear.

Glad to see this boring grey nothiness weather coming to a close Plenty of runs that take the low further east on the GFS 12z ensemble maps too

Interesting to note that the ECM has now joined the gfs in going for a northerly later next week and also interesting that after the initial blast a reload looks to be on the cards.

All a matter of where you happen to live I think. I think in Dorset this winter will probably come in on a par with 96-97. temp wise. As some already have noted there was no real freeze in the proper sense of the word where daytime maxs stayed below freezing for a week or more. However a winter is far more than that and on a personal level, working outdoors as I do this winter has provided far more in the way of wintry type weather than any since the 1980's for me. A good many frosty mornings in December made for a very seasonal start. Whilst the post christmas/early January cold spell although not delivering a great deal of snow here did see me record a record low temperature of minus 10C which is not bad seeing as I live within 3 miles of the channel coast at the "massive" altitude of 45metres amsl. The feb cold spell did however deliver the snow which was the worst locally since at least December 1997 and in the north of the county quite possibly the worst since January 1987. So for me the best winter in a very long time.

Have seen the first few flakes blowing in the wind down here in the last 20 minutes. Broken cloud though so just a little taster for later I think.

I would have to concur with both Timmy H and Damianslaw here the recent cold despite producing the coldest temp my 17 years here at Winfrith and the coldest temp at Hurn airport since January 1963.It Was merely good compared to the mild mush of the post 88 era it certainly does not bear comparison 78,79 81,82 85,86or87 in terms of cold maximas, or longevity of exceptional minima ,most certainly not in terms of snowfall nor in terms of being a nationwide event for long periods. Nevertheless it was fantastic to actually have some real cold at a time of year when it should be here.

Glad you got the book ok Tamara. Yes that is one of the things I have found about that blizzard. It really did stay etched in to the psyche of many residents here in Dorset. It was without doubt THE weather event of my life so far by a country mile, I was only two in the winter of 63 so I can't really remember anything about that. Enjoy your read. Mark

Just to let you know that rather like a new puppy the Netweather discount on the The Blizzard of 78 book, is not just for Christmas. The offer remains in place for as long as any members want to buy the book.

Whilst not wishing to show disrespect to the Met office who IMHO do a pretty good job, I do wish they would have the courage to point out that the Dec 22nd update is a massive divergence from their original winter forecast. The original was that winter temps were most likely to be at or above average. December despite this current mild snap is likely to come in below average and now they expect Jan to be below average as well. They begrudgingly went for a chilly December only at the very last moment ( ie their late November update) Over the years they have always been quite bullish when their winter forecastS have come in on target so it would be nice to see them be as bullish about admitting that this time they might not have got it right. This is not an anti Met Office post just an observation

To all forum members who have been kind enough to order a copy of The Blizzard of 78- The snowstorm that buried Dorset, may I ssay a big thank you. Thanks to your support and that of the locals down here in Dorset. The book is now having to be reprinted. The discount offer shown on page one of this thread remains in place for all netweather forum members.

http://s389.photobucket.com/albums/oo331/m...ULWORTHROAD.jpg http://s389.photobucket.com/albums/oo331/m...nt=scan0018.jpg Yes Andy I feel very priviledged to have lived through the events in those pictures. I hope you and all netweather snowlovers get the chance to do the same at some point.

Hi everyone, thanks to all those who have looked at the thread. If you would like to see the sort of photos that are contained in the book please follow the links below. Please be aware that these images are copyright. Please let me knwo if you have any problem accessing thes e pic http://s389.photobucket.com/albums/oo331/m...ULWORTHROAD.jpg http://s389.photobucket.com/albums/oo331/m...nt=scan0018.jpg

A big thank you to those forum members who have ordered copies I will always do my best to send orders out within 24 hours of receiving them. I hope members will get as much enjoyment from reading the book as I have had from putting it together. Very much a labour of love.

Thanks for the update John. Fascinating and informative as ever. A cold feel to weather genearally I think once we get the next few days out of the way.

Hi John Don't forget you can invoke your Netweather forum discount and order direct from myself if you wish. Mark

Just wanted to say thank you to the members on the forum who have already ordered copies of the The Blizzard of 78 book.