Kentish Man
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Posts posted by Kentish Man
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Total snow failure here (again) . I think we in the far south east have to accept a proper rather than transitory snowfall only occurs with two synoptic situations either a cold ENE continental polar airstream with previous cold pooling in Europe or an embedded polar low in a cold artic maritime flow (rare). Today a weak front by the time it got here from the WNW was the usual let down with just an odd snowflake seen in the cold rain.
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6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Well met going for much colder weather even here at end of the week so you must be looking at other charts if you think its saying very mild for whole of this week
Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:
Wet and windy throughout Wednesday, with gales in places. Colder and blustery for a time into Thursday, ahead of a drier, less windy, but much colder end to the week.
5C maximums as forecast on the GFS for Saturday don't cut it in my book. Chilly yes but not genuinely cold. The best you can say about this January is that it won't be as mild as in 2020 but it's still another let down after the model nirvana we saw at one point.
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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Think lesson to be learned is stick to ouput upto 144 hours,anything beyond that is liable for big changes,whatever it shows,models still arent able to go beyond 5 or 6 days ahead with much accuracy.
Writing off the rest of the winter,because of what models are showing 10 or more days aways like you are doing in here is rather pointless as they wont verify like that anyway.
Yesterday at 300 hours it had bitter easterlies heading towards UK!
I've been on this site long enough to rrealise that will not be the precise chart that verifies but I look for trends and the trends aren't good on any of the models unless you can see something I can't.
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36 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:
Meanwhile over on the model discussion thread, winter still appears to be obligatory "ten days away".
*rinse and repeat*
Yes that's 10 days ago when it did get a bit chilly. Quite likely now we'll end up after an average December with only slightly below average temperatures in January in the southern half of the UK and I now have a suspicion Feb will be a warm one with La Nina doing its late winter worst..
Edit Bartlett alert on GFS at t+300. Time to go home.
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What a load of crap output on all of this morning's models for the southern half of the country. At least we'll be spared the worst of the flooding before the mild sets in from next week. And we might get a couple of frosts next weekend lol. So much for SSW.
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20 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
The winter of rain 2.0 the cold variety...in the weeks ahead looks like going back to the traditional stuff. My God this month has been depressing!
Yes in this far south eastern corner winter has surely once again flattered to deceive despite promising medium term model output throughout December and early January . Even the promised snow failed to materialise here this morning although I understand a couple of spots in east Kent got a dusting. Looking forward it just looks very wet with a southern tracking jet not far enough south to provide any real wintry stuff in southers areas but far enough south for endless more depressing cold rain.
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2.0C thanks. Happy New Year to all!
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Wow a 0.3c drop is unusual at this late stage of a month. Could end up near to 1981 -2010 average of 14.2C.
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I won't be listing August 2020 as one of the great Augusts. A week or so of hellishly high temperatures by day and night bounded by average or even decidedly chilly conditions, unseasonal storms and wind and dull skies does not as a summer month do it.
Sadly the best of the weather down here was during the height of the lockdown from April to June.
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4 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Looking like a sub 18 month now, finishing mark 17.8 perhaps.
Yes we could end up as low as 17.5C with two chilly days and nights to add on plus the month-end adjustment to come.
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15.7C cheers
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13.6C thanks
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Last night's 12z GFS forecasted 0C minimums in my area early next week - now up to 4C at the lowest as the true artic blast (as so often) heads further east in the latest models. Quite happy about that as late frosts are potentially very damaging but it also suggests it was unwise of some broadcast forecasters to over-egg the pudding too early. Of course things can change but I'm struggling to think of many occasions in the past where once a northerly downgrade kicks off it goes into reverse.
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7.6C thanks.
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2 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:
That system quite a bit further north than forecast. Another soggy morning. 6c. March certainly carrying on where February left off. Wet spring ahead i reckon.
It's not the first time the forecast for "southern counties" is a bit off to put it kindly. If you listened to BBC forecasters bleating how this would be a much better week last Sunday you'd be forgiven for wondering why this is possibly going to turn out the wettest week of all down here just without the wind.
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I think with just 5 weeks to go and no signs of a SSW we can formally write off 2019/20 and consign it to the list of rubbish post 1987 winters from a cold viewpoint. Add in the endless rain apart from this last week of almost as miserable AC gloom then it becomes what I would consider as one of the top 3 worst winters of that period
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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Trouble is these little niceties are ignored by national forecasters thus raising up the hopes of our neighbours kids only to be let down again. Incidentally these Channel winds clearly extended as far "north" as our neck of the woods