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WINTRY WALES

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Posts posted by WINTRY WALES

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hey guys just a quick musing whilst this thread is so quiet. We have seen places in Europe ( Scandanavia) and other parts of the World like China experience very harsh and record cold Winters this year. Other parts of the World like Greece and Turkey in recent years gone by experiencing theirs too. For our small part of the globe and most of western europe it seems pretty difficult to see any prolonged decent cold weather due to repeating pressure set ups scuppering some favourable cold weather signals for it to happen.

    This to me seems something else maybe other than the general global climate change. Can any one expand on this and maybe help explain?

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by WINTRY WALES

    1 hour ago, TEITS said:

    Being she made the wise move of leaving the UK I know her opinion is 100% based on science and 0% based on bias.

    But if she made the move for a warmer climate then that would indicate Tamara does have a bias towards what the weather could be.

    But I do value Tamara input and she has championed the clod weather this year which strengthens your point mate.

     

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I know not strictly model related but there has been some chat about the consistent High pressure not setting up in the right place no more. After 25 years of skiing in the alps there has been a definite noticeable change to the weather. Long gone are the years of having to wear layers because of the cold. The most important thing to pack from the last 8!years or so is sun cream! Nearly always dry sunny and warm. Such a shame how our climate has changed.

    • Like 6

    Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Mine was Kitzbuhel, beautiful village and great Apres…..but Saalbach for skiing….micro climate giving incredible ski conditions 

     

    BFTP

     

    BFTO

    Will try it Blast! Spring like conditions look to be spreading from the end of the week through to end of Jan / early Feb....damn it!! Want to see snow falling from the sky 😞 

    • Thanks 1

    Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    I ski’d Val D’Isere last year, when you get flat light it makes skiing so much tougher.  We went by train too, recommend it.

    20/1 i’m returning to Austria, my favourite ski country.  Going to Kaprun.  Looks very cold first 36 hrs then a reasonable warm up….could be Spring like….but it’s difficult to tell up the mountains , wind direction can make huge differences

     

    BFTP

    Love Austria too! Mayerhofen my favorite ski resort to date

    • Like 2

    Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 10/01/2024 at 17:44, Staffordshire said:

    How would the GFS/UKMO/GEM look for snow chances in the French Alps would anybody know?

    I will be at 1800m in Avoriaz and a little concerned at some of the charts showing warm uppers hanging around.

    Is the trend in the past 24hrs constructive for my chances out there?

    I wouldnt mind knowing the answer to this.

    Travelling to Morzine and Avoriaz next week and would like to keep an eye on the forecast for snow and cold 🙂 

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    It wasn’t a comment about teleconnections.  While not infallible, on this occasion they did what it says on the tin, I agree about that.  (The models, however, did overegg the blocking massively as this came into view which was an issue.)  

    It is clear to anyone who has followed this winter chase for any number of years, that even with the right signals, it has become virtually impossible to get setups for significant snow in winter in southern UK.  Apart from a few inches in December 2020, there has been no cold and snowy period since 2018 (does that even count as it was in the spring?).  Changing climate seems to have done much more than increase average temperatures a bit, it also seems to have massively reduced decent patterns and altered patterns that once delivered into ones that don’t.  This year promised decent patterns and has flattered to deceive so far.  It may be many years before we get similarly favourable signals going into winter again.

    I agree ….i know it’s not as simple as this but if there were say 8 variables required to result in uk wide snow like in the past…we need all 8. And then…what would we say we had this spell…90% of the variables favourable?? And still quite a let down. Could be a good while to have so many favourable.

    But in the past ….again shooting from the hip here….maybe 65-75% of the variables required for the patterns to result in the majority of the uk seeing snow.

    From a non teleconnections expert…and at afar this is how it seems to have panned out over recent years 

    • Like 3

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Wales / Cymru weather discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, freeze for all said:

    Screenshot_20240112_171139_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.de8724c2a932be0c768bbbea7a511245.jpgScreenshot_20240112_171154_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.104237738e1ebe6aeaef0ee0eeaaabc3.jpgThis is the meto take on things, the most likely scenario is the low further south with snow affecting the very south of England. Also said enough snow to disrupt but not copious amounts. The second scenario was further north and then most of south wales would be in the game, he also mentioned more disruptive snowfall if that was the case 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

     

    That was a few days ago don’t mislead people that’s not the current prognosis 

    Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

    That was a few days ago don’t mislead people that’s not the current prognosis 

    Sorry my mistake it looks like it is from today 🤣 don’t know where they are getting that from all models showing the low going through france

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ok ok let’s all stop but please understand the moaning. If you went on a summer holiday and it was very warm but had no sunshine we would all mostly complain. Folk here understand it’s cold, maybe very cold. But we all chase the snow. Frustrating but fun. This coming week had potential, still may have. If not,it sounds like there may be more opportunities for the rest of winter where there is plenty of time left. 

    • Insightful 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Not trying to moan but ignoring the teleconnection possibilities and just looking out of the window, the next week, in realism terms will be standard winter cold weather. Disappointing for now let’s hope the science comes to fruition and the next few couple of weeks gives us all something to reminisce about next year and beyond 

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Chrisover93 said:

    How is this even a bad thing if it came in on a north extent the cold would be gone but now the cold is in and everyone has a chance no just you 

    There was the possibility of snow for a good 24 hours and remaining cold. The vast majority on here are chasing snow, so it can be disappointing. 

    If the low moving through France allows the cold to dig in deeper and increase the snow chances then great. Not sure that is the case though

    • Like 2
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