A reality check is needed here for anyone pushing the wintry narrative in the lead up to Xmas.
If we put the background drivers to one side for a moment (they are by no means a guarantee of determining the weather and have been wrong many times before) then the current nwp projections are about as bad as they can get for cold /snow fans. You can spin it any which way you like to argue if this happens…if that happens etc etc and find a straw to clutch to pedal a cold wintry narrative if that’s your weather ideal.
The reality is there is zero northern blocking, the pv has moved from a favourable position to an unfavourable one and much of Europe is trending mild, in our case v mild at times.
Call me a gloom monger or just a realist - cold and snow will not be on the menu this Xmas and imo before the year is out.
On the positive side - the steep trend away from positive wintry charts has been v noticeable, always a chance things can change again…unlikely any time soon though….time for a break from the models me thinks.