adamgooner

Many of the more experienced posters have solely pinned their views based on background signals. If only the weather was that simple. If background signals were an accurate indicator of predicting our weather the long range seasonal models would be accurate most of the time, often they are not. Sadly a big bust for those calling cold end to December. If we don’t see a dramatic change early Jan I fear we will be chasing that ssw to save winter.

So where are we 24 hours later after my last post. I recall being shot down by some members for calling mild/wet, vortex in wrong place, zero Atlantic blocking. Looking across the suite bar a brief 24 hrs crap northerly (even that’s unsupported across esembles and other models) I think my call looks fairly good so far. Firmly believe we are looking at a wet and v mild run up to Xmas and personally until end of year. Background signals don’t guarantee you anything and these current charts show you just that - pinning your hopes on these alone is a mugs game sadly. I appreciate some posters want to see cold and snow and will pedal any narrative they can find to support this through the odd gfs chart at 240 hrs +. Reality is - no cold spell has been shown consistently across any model suite and it’s esembles with ecm and gem showing the polarised opposite. It’s grim viewing sadly no way of spinning this - best advice for those hoping for cold /snow - take a break for 1-2 weeks (you’ll save yourself a lot of frustration) nothing is going to significantly change in the next 10 days or so. Likely we will be looking into Jan for an ssw to save our winter chances…sound familiar? I’ll get my coat …

Matt, respect your knowledge (far greater than mine) but I do sense you’re seeing what you want to see at the expense of what’s realistic. You’ve been banging the wintry nirvana projections for around Xmas for several weeks all based on background signals. You and I know these are never a guarantee- for the less knowledgeable posters and readers on here I think it would be right to at least acknowledge the current nwp has taken a significant step back towards a cold and wintry outcome over recent days. Your post whilst detailed and informative doesn’t really touch upon anything other than the background signals which many of us are aware of. The reality is - if we take a broad sweep of all available nwp charts and esembles there is little to latch on to right now, sorry just being a realist here (don’t shoot the messenger).

A reality check is needed here for anyone pushing the wintry narrative in the lead up to Xmas. If we put the background drivers to one side for a moment (they are by no means a guarantee of determining the weather and have been wrong many times before) then the current nwp projections are about as bad as they can get for cold /snow fans. You can spin it any which way you like to argue if this happens…if that happens etc etc and find a straw to clutch to pedal a cold wintry narrative if that’s your weather ideal. The reality is there is zero northern blocking, the pv has moved from a favourable position to an unfavourable one and much of Europe is trending mild, in our case v mild at times. Call me a gloom monger or just a realist - cold and snow will not be on the menu this Xmas and imo before the year is out. On the positive side - the steep trend away from positive wintry charts has been v noticeable, always a chance things can change again…unlikely any time soon though….time for a break from the models me thinks.

Fair play buddy - I was fairly critical of your assessment of Atlantic driven onslaught but great to see like us all we are learning daily and that’s all part of the fun here. I’ve learnt one key thing over the years - we can study background signals, analogues etc all we want but ultimately the weather will do what it wants to do, and the beauty is we never know how quickly our luck (if you like cold /snow) can turn. Very much enjoy your contributions, keep up the good work.

No it doesn’t, you’re not interpreting the ecm correctly. You’re looking at GEM.

But it’s an isolated chart at 300 plus hours - surely it doesn’t add any value to forecasting what might happen up top or on the ground.

How often do you find a chart circa 300 hrs plus come to fruition? This is cherry picking and misleading for learners. The models have been flipping back and forth of late inc the much lorded ecm. There is no overwhelming evidence across the suite to support the chart you’ve posted above, unless you pay high regard to charts deep into FI which rarely materialise.

Great to see you posting again Nick. Always enjoy reading your posts and the knowledge you share is always excellent. How many weeks until your SOS line opens up as the winter nirvana charts crash before our eyes at T-30 hrs.

Anyone know when GLOSEA is released?

Interesting Tweet from BBC Weather highlighting the risk of disruptive snow next Wed/Thurs...early call from the BBC

Looking at the current EC32 pattern coupled with a number of other key indicators you just get the feeling that this winter will be a real non affair from a coldies perspective. Whilst HLB can develop at short notice in the weeks ahead I think the chances of this affecting the UK are minimal at best. This winter just seems to have a different feel to it than the last few....

There appears a solid build up of cold air to the east to tap into now...rewind a month back and many of us were chasing signals for an easterly...with a lack of a cold pool to the east. IMO any easterly incursion from mid month would be notable indeed. exciting times...

fascinating update Ian. What time frame we looking at here...10d-12d?

cheers

Steve, How much snow do you think London will see (outside of central London)? Precip has edged south...but is it far enough south hmm?

looking drier still cold but not the convection coming off the north sea we need....still time