adamgooner
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Posts posted by adamgooner
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So where are we 24 hours later after my last post. I recall being shot down by some members for calling mild/wet, vortex in wrong place, zero Atlantic blocking.
Looking across the suite bar a brief 24 hrs crap northerly (even that’s unsupported across esembles and other models) I think my call looks fairly good so far.
Firmly believe we are looking at a wet and v mild run up to Xmas and personally until end of year. Background signals don’t guarantee you anything and these current charts show you just that - pinning your hopes on these alone is a mugs game sadly.
I appreciate some posters want to see cold and snow and will pedal any narrative they can find to support this through the odd gfs chart at 240 hrs +. Reality is - no cold spell has been shown consistently across any model suite and it’s esembles with ecm and gem showing the polarised opposite.
It’s grim viewing sadly no way of spinning this - best advice for those hoping for cold /snow - take a break for 1-2 weeks (you’ll save yourself a lot of frustration) nothing is going to significantly change in the next 10 days or so.
Likely we will be looking into Jan for an ssw to save our winter chances…sound familiar? I’ll get my coat …
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23 minutes ago, MattH said:
As I mentioned in a previous post, with some attachments and slides, the outlook is focused on this next MJO passage. There was some caution here as to whether the signal was being over-amplified by tropical cyclone activity and that may still be the case, but the overall trend in model data, as exampled in the two images here, is for the MJO to quickly progress towards the Maritimes and then the W Pacific. Any amplitude through phases 6-7-8, along with a rise in the GWO to higher Nino phases continues to point towards very interesting synoptics further down the line.
Good morning...
I start by highlighting the above first - Since the opening few days of December, the above remains a feature that still needs to occur. While not a surprise there are far too many posts in here already, essentially, saying Christmas won't be cold, or the end of December will be x,y and z - Some need to put the breaks on for a little while...
The evolution ahead (short term) is not a surprise. The more progressive progression to a more cyclonic spell has been well documented for some time and we are seeing that now, the exact reasons for the build of pressure later this coming week, IMO, can't simply be linked to the teleconnections. The reason for the build of pressure, through a couple of stages, is linked to synoptic developments over the USA and the W Atlantic. What is disappointing mind is it is likely to lead to a very mild spell indeed, given the main CoG of the high. While there remains some room for 'give and take' over the position of the high, the GFS is looking too bullish with this build over the UK and a mild/very tropical maritime W-SW flow is likely to dominate the mid-month period as an active westerly flow dominates over the top.
We then look, still, to the period that I've focused on for some time and that being the final third of December - The 20th to the 31st - We continue to see differences in the evolution of the MJO and the associated VP200 signal. As I mentioned back in early December "there was some caution here as to whether the signal was being over-amplified" and we have model differences over this even now. Equally, while this remains a watching brief it is disappointing to see little influence, yet anyway, on the GSDM with the GWO yet to rise, as was suggested, for example.
If we don't see the amplified MJO signal, like the BOM model is suggesting, and we end up with a less significant event then I do believe the output for the Christmas period may well actually evolve like is signalled now, with semi-amplified Atlantic highs that bring brief N or NW'lies, but with more cyclonic events flattening the high as they move over the top and I am leaning more that way now after this being a watching brief - The 'holy grail' of a high amplified MJO passage, large GWO rise and significant impacts are becoming less and less likely with reducing risk of "very interesting synoptics" further down the line.
It does, however, remain a watching brief and to completely rule out the rest of Dec because of recent model runs is, as ever, just daft. Once again December was never meant to be a 'wintry month' and was often progged to be the most +ve NAO month of the winter. We've just had a noteworthy week of cold weather and the outlook is still nothing like it can be at this time of year when a resolute and strong sPV links to the tPV - Those Decembers really can often be written off, but, again that isn't the case this year.
Some adjustments need to be made as the situation continues to evolve - significant or pronounced northern blocking and 'holy grail' winter synoptics through the Christmas period do look less likely, but we still need to see how the current tropical signal evolves and with 2 weeks to go until Christmas, let alone the end of the month, there is still a lot of legs left in this yet.
Cheers, Matt.
Matt, respect your knowledge (far greater than mine) but I do sense you’re seeing what you want to see at the expense of what’s realistic.
You’ve been banging the wintry nirvana projections for around Xmas for several weeks all based on background signals.
You and I know these are never a guarantee- for the less knowledgeable posters and readers on here I think it would be right to at least acknowledge the current nwp has taken a significant step back towards a cold and wintry outcome over recent days.
Your post whilst detailed and informative doesn’t really touch upon anything other than the background signals which many of us are aware of.
The reality is - if we take a broad sweep of all available nwp charts and esembles there is little to latch on to right now, sorry just being a realist here (don’t shoot the messenger).
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A reality check is needed here for anyone pushing the wintry narrative in the lead up to Xmas.
If we put the background drivers to one side for a moment (they are by no means a guarantee of determining the weather and have been wrong many times before) then the current nwp projections are about as bad as they can get for cold /snow fans. You can spin it any which way you like to argue if this happens…if that happens etc etc and find a straw to clutch to pedal a cold wintry narrative if that’s your weather ideal.
The reality is there is zero northern blocking, the pv has moved from a favourable position to an unfavourable one and much of Europe is trending mild, in our case v mild at times.
Call me a gloom monger or just a realist - cold and snow will not be on the menu this Xmas and imo before the year is out.
On the positive side - the steep trend away from positive wintry charts has been v noticeable, always a chance things can change again…unlikely any time soon though….time for a break from the models me thinks.
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8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Win win.. something big does happen and I get to see snow! It all collapses and I get to claim I was right all along
In all seriousness though - Huge step towards this evolution, the detail remains an absolute mess but that's to be expected at this range. Evidently I have a lot to learn re: background signals & drivers.
Fair play buddy - I was fairly critical of your assessment of Atlantic driven onslaught but great to see like us all we are learning daily and that’s all part of the fun here. I’ve learnt one key thing over the years - we can study background signals, analogues etc all we want but ultimately the weather will do what it wants to do, and the beauty is we never know how quickly our luck (if you like cold /snow) can turn. Very much enjoy your contributions, keep up the good work.
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1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:
I think you need to go back & read what I actually said, I wasn’t saying that specific chart would come to frution exactly as shown, I was using it to illustrate the point re: teleconnective signals & NWP modelling and why we can have more (or less in some cases) confidence in certain situations, such as the one so highlighted in the post you’re responding to
But it’s an isolated chart at 300 plus hours - surely it doesn’t add any value to forecasting what might happen up top or on the ground.
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1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:
Just to go back to this post here & how teleconnections often lead NWP outputs, the 06z GFS is picking up this idea in the extended and running with it for early December.
Due to the drivers mentioned in the quoted post it means we can have more confidence in this evolution (details aside) from the GFS because it's well founded & advertised within the broader drivers, vs the recent Greenland high runs we've been seeing which haven't been supported.
NWP doesn't lead, teleconnections do and that's why it's important to look at the entire picture when looking ahead vs just following individual det runs.
How often do you find a chart circa 300 hrs plus come to fruition?
This is cherry picking and misleading for learners.
The models have been flipping back and forth of late inc the much lorded ecm.
There is no overwhelming evidence across the suite to support the chart you’ve posted above, unless you pay high regard to charts deep into FI which rarely materialise.
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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Hi all .
Hope everyone has recharged their batteries and is ready and raring to go as the winter season approaches !
Looks like I picked a good time to return from my hibernation.
Nothing like a bit of early season drama which seems to be the case with 3 options on the table . GFS turning colder and wintry , UKMO generally drier and colder and the ECM more average and drier .
The divergence as is often the case due to upstream differences. Specifically here the area in the nw Atlantic and handling of shortwave energy, phasing issues which stop the ridge extending north .
I should say the UKMO has edged a bit towards the ECM this morning compared to last nights run . The GFS is the cleanest upstream evolution .
Not long till the the next GFS so more after that .
Great to see you posting again Nick. Always enjoy reading your posts and the knowledge you share is always excellent.
How many weeks until your SOS line opens up as the winter nirvana charts crash before our eyes at T-30 hrs.
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Anyone know when GLOSEA is released?
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Interesting Tweet from BBC Weather highlighting the risk of disruptive snow next Wed/Thurs...early call from the BBC
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Looking at the current EC32 pattern coupled with a number of other key indicators you just get the feeling that this winter will be a real non affair from a coldies perspective. Whilst HLB can develop at short notice in the weeks ahead I think the chances of this affecting the UK are minimal at best. This winter just seems to have a different feel to it than the last few....
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The most encouraging thing about recent output is Ian F's comments.
The Meto are taking a potentially easterly (that's what I construe as to his comments about cold spreading from E/SE parts) seriously and appear to be calling it the form horse. We know that they more or less ignore the GFS at more than 8 days out, so I think we should do until that kind of timeframe.
Normally, though, the Meto are rather circumspect about these sorts of signals and with a minority of ensembles wanting the easterly, it seems to me that (as usual) they know more than we do, and therefore have something else to back up the pro-easterly view.
There appears a solid build up of cold air to the east to tap into now...rewind a month back and many of us were chasing signals for an easterly...with a lack of a cold pool to the east. IMO any easterly incursion from mid month would be notable indeed. exciting times...
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UKMO view (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter.
fascinating update Ian. What time frame we looking at here...10d-12d?
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cheersNorth side 2-8cm is the guess
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http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?21-17
EPIC UKMO tonight right from T36 when the snow lands in MOST places right out to 120 when the -10c isotherm brings the threat of heavy snow showers from the East...
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Steve, How much snow do you think London will see (outside of central London)? Precip has edged south...but is it far enough south hmm?
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Give it chance....
You need to let the models roll out before coming to any conclusion as drastic as yours.
looking drier still cold but not the convection coming off the north sea we need....still time
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Many of the more experienced posters have solely pinned their views based on background signals. If only the weather was that simple. If background signals were an accurate indicator of predicting our weather the long range seasonal models would be accurate most of the time, often they are not.
Sadly a big bust for those calling cold end to December. If we don’t see a dramatic change early Jan I fear we will be chasing that ssw to save winter.