Rustynailer
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Posts posted by Rustynailer
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I don't expect any major eruptions of vei 6 the eruption seems to have really reached a steady state. The only questions are 1) Will new fissures open up 2) How long will this go on for?
Perhaps it will do a Pu'u 'o''o and still be erupting in 30 years time....
I think the fissure will cause a flank weakness, its the size and shape of Bada and Hawaii does not shake like this and nothing happen, Iceland is due a big eruption, Bada fits the bill.
Still the fissure could grow...
I speculate that if Hekla erupts first or during Badabunga eruption then Badabunga will only be a bad VE 4 but if Hekla does not erupt than Bada is a 6...
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It is a bit like the new kind of warfare we see these days, we wait with baited breath...
I found the lava field at H alarming when looking deeply, reason is, it has never been like this since Laki, nothing more.
I am sure i would place my joker at the NE flank, if I was put on the spot at any time in the last three months, likewise today and on...
Latest at 20:47 ish UK
K303.JPG Really just look at the caldera...K304.JPG I wish right now I could say:- Nothings going to happen everything is going to be alright, this is not looking good...The worst case scenario... ...big explosive eruption VE 6+ is easy within range of Bada at the moment in my opinion, if the wrong events happen down there deep...
Keep your tin hat* handy.
* Safety helmet, etc.
The gateway to hell looks like this at the moment...
K305.JPGThe fissure at H 20:10 UK
K306.JPGPulsing at 20:14 UK
K307.JPG same cam...heres todays plus 3 so far
Saturday22.11.2014 15:48:03 64.675 -17.424 3.6 km 4.2 99.0 6.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 14:50:17 64.674 -17.490 7.9 km 4.1 99.0 4.2 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 14:21:03 64.678 -17.427 0.7 km 3.7 99.0 6.4 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 12:39:33 64.677 -17.448 7.5 km 4.0 99.0 5.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 10:17:40 64.686 -17.508 7.2 km 3.9 99.0 5.1 km N of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 10:15:09 64.689 -17.408 9.5 km 3.9 99.0 7.8 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 07:56:29 64.659 -17.445 1.0 km 3.8 99.0 4.4 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 06:14:52 64.693 -17.480 9.8 km 4.1 99.0 6.3 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 05:02:12 64.687 -17.494 9.1 km 4.0 99.0 5.4 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 04:16:00 64.676 -17.454 8.6 km 4.4 99.0 5.3 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 03:25:35 64.684 -17.410 10.0 km 3.9 99.0 7.4 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 03:03:06 64.680 -17.444 2.3 km 3.8 99.0 6.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 02:23:36 64.685 -17.481 9.2 km 3.0 99.0 5.4 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 01:24:51 64.681 -17.409 9.3 km 3.6 99.0 7.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:33:39 64.690 -17.469 9.7 km 4.0 99.0 6.2 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:28:32 64.620 -17.528 7.9 km 3.7 99.0 2.3 km S of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:26:54 64.631 -17.514 5.3 km 3.6 99.0 1.2 km SSE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:25:12 64.636 -17.575 14.1 km 3.5 99.0 2.3 km WSW of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:17:12 64.671 -17.427 8.5 km 3.8 99.0 5.9 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:14:48 64.690 -17.483 9.2 km 4.3 99.0 5.9 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:11:40 64.664 -17.474 5.1 km 3.7 99.0 3.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
22.11.2014 00:08:44 64.672 -17.508 7.4 km 3.4 99.0 3.7 km NNE of Bárðarbunga
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table
some shallow and some deep
all around ne but one of interest at WSW
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947
hi rusty
got a feeling marathon rather than sprint comes to mind
but to be honest i aint got a clue what happens next
my gut feeling is this thing will do something out of the blue
and the NE flank collapse is still not out of the equation
It is a bit like the new kind of warfare we see these days, we wait with baited breath...
I found the lava field at H alarming when looking deeply, reason is, it has never been like this since Laki, nothing more.
I am sure i would place my joker at the NE flank, if I was put on the spot at any time in the last three months, likewise today and on...
Latest at 20:47 ish UK
Really just look at the caldera... I wish right now I could say:- Nothings going to happen everything is going to be alright, this is not looking good...The worst case scenario... ...big explosive eruption VE 6+ is easy within range of Bada at the moment in my opinion, if the wrong events happen down there deep...
Keep your tin hat* handy.
* Safety helmet, etc.
The gateway to hell looks like this at the moment...
The fissure at H 20:10 UK
Pulsing at 20:14 UK
same cam...IOM Vala positioning algorithm snip
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48 hours worth of EQ's
Looks like we will loose vis on the Mila cams soon weather is closing in
I wonder will we still be looking at this fissure eruption in to next year?
Still just as noisy
A nice early map of the fissure site I stumbled upon....
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Miðvikudagur
19.11.2014 22:23:24 64,005 -19,642 7,3 km 4,5 99,0 2,0 km NA af HekluIf that is real is is likely to be dangerous....Never seen this before, Hekla erupts without shaking for ages beforehand, just couple EQ's then eruption usually...
IMO correction now a 0.9 .... People in Iceland are relived that "the gateway to hell" remains shut for now.
Still noteworthy as Hekla does not shake...
This is possibly a rifting stress re adjustment or the like, Badabunga eruption and rift will effect the stress fields of all Iceland.
Bada seems business as usual today.
Mila Badabunga 2 cam. Lots today already at 99%... -
Un corrected-----corrected---Heineken sminekin
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we should be able to trust it as its at 99 so been reviewed
The default depth for uncertainty is 0.1 at 99% it means as yet depth uncertain @ IMO
Todays quake map is a busy one alright.
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Dropping like a stone on the vertical displacement as I type
The depression that the GPS is sat in has gone deeper slower on the graph on average because it is roughly conical so as it gets bigger it slows down even though the amount of magma draining away remains out-flowing at the same rate, outside of the depression is now a much larger circle. The fissure lava flow is much the same , it is now that big 70+km that it grows hardly noticed now.
The GPS dropping like a stone is normal as it is corrected before long automatically by IMO algorithm. The gray lines are corrected out blue lines etc...
Magma cutting through rock like the gas axes at a scrap yard, same sound only much louder
Perhaps not the best analogy LOLSame on the drums
longer time frame. (Askja is broken, tough weather to be out there fixing, mind there is a living hut for scientists at Askja...We may see it serviced before near total darkness sets in I hope.)Bada 2 at 2200hrs UK
Badabunga and the Fissure today at 14:35 UK time MODIS
Better at 12:55 All attachments with kind regards to IMO and Mila.
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http://www.ruv.is/frett/holuhraun-eruption-fresh-video Super video.
Those clusters of quakes today are noteworthy harmonics in my opinion.
This afternoon.Now
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Finally I have seen the fissure eruption again, at last
Cam one is panning about for once, cam 2 is at full zoom, not worth looking at at the moment. The low cloud is steam from the lava field...Now I can see the fissure properly at last
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OK we are up and breathing again, looks like another ripple and a Around 5 should be along before morning a 5+ by tomorrow nights end. If ......
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http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/ (better)
cor can see something there
sorry updates are sketchy
computer probs
LOL every time I look at mila its snowing they are elusive.
As we are familiar with drum plots now thought the Molucca sea EQ Mag 7.1 (up to now) would make a useful comparison
sort of makes Badas shaking look like a mere rumble The fissure eruption at H is back to fountain mode I think, people on VC have posted screen shots that appear to show such.
Looks like the magma feed from the hot spot has pushed some more.....
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The 5.4 last night may be significant, it may herald a change in the eruption, this could well be a sign of the end of the fissure. Equally the end of the fissure could lead to fresh activity.
I knew straight away last night that after a long pause in 5+ mag quakes a big one was coming, been watching Bada too long.
Nobody knows what will happen next, we all know the worst case scenario, so the Average scenario is perhaps a wise precaution here. That would mean an eruption of material somewhere else rather than a stop RE- activity.
Reason is that this is a regional fissure eruption and it takes years to show its full colors. Patience is a virtue in the study of Iceland's Volcanoes...I don't have patience half the time but I am young to the subject.
A graph that looks like an arid desert of activity is worthy of caution and generations of respect, especially in Iceland....
Careful tread lightly Bada sleeps for a while
Snooze, sleep still alive though if one of those little lines was under my house it would fall to bits in short order, Bada is resting only.
All clips with thanks to IMO
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There has just been a mag 5+ quake the first for a while .....
The vala
I prefer this though when my eyes are tired
Confirmed on the strain at Hekla
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A little flurry of quakes over 3 with one @ 4.0 & 0.0km
What's that all about?
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table
Although not the mag 5's there are more green stars on that map than I have ever seen.
The noise of the quakes is breaking rock, the magma is not having an easy journey to the fissure, that's the noise.
Another as we speak...
Only a 3 or 4 , if it was any bigger it would show very well on this http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/strain/1sec/index.html-
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-30040238 Looks pretty much like the big storms last winter, note the idiot on the push bike, if he fell in people would have to risk their lives to save him, lost his common sense of had it educated away.....I blame the schools.
More storms this year then, never a dull moment.
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Video from IMO staff member, very revealing, sets the mind straight regarding triple junction. From this guy.... https://www.youtube.com/user/mummijons
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Hi there.
Great thread, I'm glued daily to the development of this volcano and I thank all those who have contributed so far.
Quick question, does anyone have a link to charts which show the SO2 anomoly in the the northern hemisphere following this eruption?
Ta
I think this is the one http://sacs.aeronomie.be/ also http://sampo.fmi.fi/
Look what it was like on 1 September
Today 1 hour ago from IMO sorry no link
sounding forecast for the same time slot Changing the subject slightly here are the over mag 3 EQ's for the past three days listed on the Vala map
Business as usual today all wavelengths from the drums separated for ease of viewing
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Some nice Pictures from NASA http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/84000/84698/holuhraun_oli_2014313_lrg.jpg
Also
http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/84000/84698/holuhraun_oli_2014313_swir_lrg.jpg
Both the above from this page http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=84698&src=twitter-nh
Thanks NASA.
This evenings graph looks active, business as usual
Latest in all wavelengths This video is very nice I think http://vimeo.com/111344670 Camera melting stuff that, not to mention singed helicopters.... Definitely in my top 5 of this eruption so far
Rather nice but short EJ 2010 just to compare... http://vimeo.com/11511087 The fissure at http://vimeo.com/25115803 Fimmvorduhals erupted first, the famous tourist eruption, I remember it as the eruption that started the Internets Volcano interest/usefulness for many people.
​My thoughts are of Holrahun fissure ending in the next few days maybe couple weeks, then Bada may or may not erupt...If the volcano erupts I am still thinking a flank eruption NE quadrant, at least as big as Grims 2011. I don't think this is all from this episode, the rifting continues with fresh cracks 40 and 80 cm wide spotted by scientists yesterday South of the erupting fissure.
It is anybody's guess weather Bada will erupt or a new fissure vent line opens or both.
Very interesting and very dangerous.
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The GPS transmitter was getting close to being buried under snow so it was dug out and re-set, expect GPS readings to be a bit wild until it settles.
Thank God/other for that, I looked at the graph simply because my mouse slipped I meant to click http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2949.
When I saw the GPS I gwarped and stood silently for a moment worrying...
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Here is the MODIS from 11:40 Iceland time.
blown up 150% by me, sorry MODIS...Also from the ground a little later at 13:30 IT.
Lots of steam and gas by the looks of things, lava still flowing strong. As the river source dries up more due to freezing temperatures the lava will block it up ready for spring and a new lake... If there is not a big glacial flood to wash a channel through the lava that is. We will see.
14:11 ITWith thanks to IMO all pictures.
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I am noticing a slight variance of the odd EQ here and there, they are manually checked so they must be real, Ill explain my thoughts on what I think is a possibility...
Shows EQ's over the last 2 days. Green star EQ's since year 2000 Jan 1st Detail. (note no large EQ's at Grims in 2011...Odd indeed)Looking at the occasional EQ's recently this looks like a possible development direction***. Dike intrusion or even fissure maybe? It could be nothing...
Bada is developing and the officials don't know how, we are all learning, quite humbling.
Nice to see an outbreak of fresh videos, hope there are more where they came from...
*** Direction, not distance, definitely not distance...
Can't see Bada on the cameras today, yesterday it was visible until the snow started, mmmm always thought snow was great....
then the snow After that it is white out, read em and weep snow fans. That includes me..tsk....This site collates a number of links and auto refreshes them to stay live very useful at a glance...http://weerstationlangerak.nl/bardarbunga/
Snow...
Link https://www.facebook.com/icelandreviewonlineGood pictures here https://www.facebook.com/pages/Arctic-Images/134267477529?fref=photo
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The Bada caldera GPS has frozen because the relay station has ran out of diesel again I suspect, weather will make a refill difficult.
The EQ's keep coming, a 4 then a 5+ just
by the looks of this chart.Looks like a huge one on the Vala chart, but it always does...
Webcams at Mila Bada 1 and 2 are snowed over, so we await a visit from a brave superjeep ...
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Quote; Jón FrÃmann Jónsson "The area that is subsiding is now not just the caldera. It’s the whole volcano that is now lowering and this is something that I consider a really bad news."
He is referring to this statement http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/Factsheet_Bardarbunga_20141107.pdf
I think he is thinking that the whole volcano will start forming a hew larger caldera, dropping into the emptying magma chamber, this could take 100's of years, but it could cause a big eruption at Bada in the meantime, during this current event/eruption.
Hell on Earth is Iceland when she wants...Hope it dies away and stops, it is too big to go bang in our lifetimes me thinks. Nice little(Biggest on earth since 18th century!) fissure eruption, is one thing, but Bada being the biggest strata volcano on Earth, going full on is another completely different ball game.
Map from IMO because they are nice people, that like sharing we can see it
Todays map but I don't know when it starts, blue oldest red youngest. I plotted this using the IMO algorithms (thanks folks) All the EQ's over mag 3 since August 14 to today at 1600Z
Zoom
Once again thank you IMOUniversity of Iceland twitter link https://twitter.com/uni_iceland updated with fresh pictures quite often.
This person is worth keeping an eye on too https://www.facebook.com/jardvis?ref=stream
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ICE 3 infra-sound plot, When I find the map again I'll post where ICE 3 is... It is near or on Bada I think.
The plot is interesting, in comparison with quakes from the same period. I think/vaguely remember something about these being dropped off from a helicopter in September. ICE 1,2 and 3.
I get the impression that Bada may be changing something, look out for the fissure stopping and fresh eruption elsewhere, maybe. Also it could just stop, somehow I don't think so, but it is still possible for Bada to go back to sleep. My own take is still a NE flank collapse, it just takes a bit longer than I thought
I hope to see more over flights on YouTube, surly all those people aren't keeping it all to themselves
,I would think at least one in ten would post on the Net in a hope that their video gets a bit viral...these days.I am sure I have seen no more than 10 small over flight videos and only 3 of them are what you call taken by a competent camera operator and a reasonable camera.
Funny thing is some photos of the 2010 EJ eruption only surfaced for me this September, may be they were out there earlier who knows, here is a taste "Crazy Icelanders" with superjeeps, love it, they sound like a fun bunch. Wish I had the money to go play with them
This is the small fissure eruption that stopped one day before EJ blew in to the News...Sadly one of the jeeps broke down on the way back on the last few days of the fissure, both in the vehicle died frozen. They were the only fatality's of the 2010 eruption.-
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,I would think at least one in ten would post on the Net in a hope that their video gets a bit viral...these days.
Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity
in Space, Science & nature
Posted · Edited by Rustynailer
I think Hekla is a pressure valve LOL.
My thoughts are of a diminishing fissure eruption too. I think the pulses are a sign of this. I am sure even if the fissure stops dead, the Badabunga eruption will not be over, it will just move, I think that's what happens with these break out fissures.
Mila 1 and 2
Iceland Uni...
Relay station out of fuel again
Latest drum graph with this mornings 5.1(don't be surprised if it is revised upwards)
Long term graph
Past 48 hrs at the caldera...
There is a new article in Icelandic that suggests the lava is closer to the surface than previously thought http://www.ruv.is/frett/kvika-naer-yfirbordi-bungunnar-en-talid-var 1 to 3 km rather than 5 to 8km, interesting...