Rustynailer
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Posts posted by Rustynailer
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Still can't see hardly any rift activity now ? Has something gone on under Glacier and pressure been relieved ?
Something substantial has changed IMO
I think you are right about the change. There is something going on behind that darkness
Big cloud at back.
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There may have been a fissure break out near the glacier or reactivation of an older one that all but closed off some days ago.
Unmistakable in this picture.
Errm it could be the glacier, fissure trpe activity looking at the view now that cloud in the background is rising fast.
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Hi rusty, The small events around 10am look to my untrained eye to have an unusual profile so maybe not EQ's? Rockfall or someone working near by maybe?
Impressive fog bank over the glacier this morning but unfortunately I think we are stuck with this wind direction for the rest of the day so the mila cams may not have the greatest view.
My first impression was rockfall too, we will see.
2 plumes at the fissure site one has ash I think.
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Are you sure ? Just an hour ago the plume was very dark now even though view does not seem obscured I can't see any real trace
Yes it is still there, this fast moving low cloud is getting mixed with the gas plume and obscuring it a bit.
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On Mila cams whrere has plume gone ???? I don't think obscured by cloud but can't see it
It (the gas plume) has blown in a different direction and is now obscuring a direct view of the erupting fissure.
Interesting a few small Quakes near Askja.
2014-09-10 03:53:01 -16.531 65.002 0.8 8.1 auto 2014-09-10 03:40:15 -16.456 65.07 0.3 4.6 auto 2014-09-10 01:12:17 -16.462 65.02 0.2 5.3 auto 2014-09-10 00:49:58 -16.46 65.021 0.9 5.1 auto 2014-09-10 00:49:58 -16.452 65.026 0.6 5.7 auto
They show on the drum...
Looks like some ash in the plume again, noted dropping from the gas cloud in sheets just.
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Honestly, Rusty, I think you might explode before Bardy does.
It's gripping viewing though, without a doubt. What an age we live in when we can witness these events unfold live with a wealth of information at our fingertips.
I probably will, can't get anything done with out checking the graphs
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If Bada caldera goes up they won't be a tsunami as it's far too inland. The caldera collapse could still be relatively quite affair. The big danger is if the magma is suddenly drawn off. At the moment this isn't happening allowing a steady sinking. If the magma is suddenly withdrawn the collapse will be round the ring fractures as too how big it will be nobody knows. The other possibility the slow sinking will continue with some Pheatic explosions blowing smaller caldera's or craters.
Just from the shock wave splintering the ice if its a big blast, like St Helen's, the glacial ice could make it to the sea in the NE, then a tsunami would happen, local, slight effects in NW Europe, probable no more than a couple of feet, but that is a worse case blast, sorry I was tired when I wrote that above... The worse case of 80 odd square Km of ice being blasted laterally out to the NE.
Something like this from 1787 only bigger I think, see quote..
Quote prof Dave Mc Garvie :-
There is a famous eye-witness account of an eruption in 1787 at the ice-capped Öraefajökull volcano in SE Iceland, in which hot water and mud was pouring forth, and because it lubricated the base of a valley glacier the ice flowed down onto the lowlands 'like molten metal poured from a smelter'. Unfortunately some lives lost during this eruption and one body was found 'parboiled' after immersion in the hot water+mud mix.
The 5.5 mag this morning has coincided with a drop in EQ activity, this could be significant, today we may well find out.
My best guess is still flank collapse into the fissure damage NE quarter Badabunga, VE 6+ with violent plinian activity. When do I think this will happen, I doubt we will get to weekend without the caldera giving up.
The lava is now leaving even quicker, the destabilization is worsening and the voids left by this evacuation are precipitous.
The chances of this stopping and going back to sleep are real , but even if it does the volcano structure has in my opinion been mortally effected, it will collapse I think.
The VE6+ I mentioned above will cause significant disruption to air travel in the immediate area and depending on the weather anywhere it takes it, the satellite photographs will give the best clues as to how big it will get
The Icelandic officials do not voice "Grave concern about Badabunga caldera" without there being good reasons.
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Which area of action? At the dyke, under the glacier or in the crater?
The area of action is dictated by pressure to a large extent, so the answer is the weakest at the time, at the moment it is the fissure, in the background is a unstable weakened volcano, out of sight at the moment but much in mind.
The Glacier fissure eruption could well be marked on the Ice by tomorrow, don't forget there has only been a small number or larger quakes in the area unlike Bada, the ice is still tough, the rumbling is showing maybe.
If Bada goes proper, the Mila will not make the picture...It is too close
Bada is bigger than that, that being only about 10% of what Bada can do on a bad day... Big quake 21;40 Iceland time could be a 5, def a 4+Long and rumbling quake .
It starts in the previous line...Slip? I am not sure...More detail
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If it was a major eruption could the shockwaves from it be felt in the uk? Eg if it caused a massive explosion
Also keep up the good work everyone I love this thread it's a top read.
If it was violently explosive(which it wont be IMO) like Krakatoa, yes as it is much bigger, it is in fact the biggest of its type on Earth. But thank god the explosive contact between Krakatoas caldera bottom @1200C with sea water was very very sudden and overwhelming, Bada is not like this, here we have an unstable slab of Ice and rock that will slide off and expose the inner volcano, which will explode to the NE where the fissure has weakened it, most likely. it will go slow with a series of big explosive eruptions, occasional mag 6 quakes etc. A series of ice and rock lahars and Plinaian eruptions
It will be a mag7+ if it goes quick, . The shock waves will be the killer if within 50 miles NE, tsunami Local, but it may effect NE Europe slightly, not at all like Japan a few years ago.
The sudden drop like Krakatoa with the huge amount of sea water entering are not at all likely.
The chances of this being filmed by Mila are good but bare in mind the camera is in range of the artillery.
Hey it could just stop...That is the great thing.
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Yes exactly we speculate, another big 4+ quake in the area of action at approx just before 22:00 hrs UK time. If its on the drums, it looks nothing special, but with softened glacier, what shock would you see... Mush, just mushes...
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http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table
hi rusty
more quakes showing at bara but nothing big
yet
The absence of quakes means lava is flowing freely from Bada, the rift will swallow lots, all that is left comes out of the fissure.
The caldera gets lower as long as this happens, tick tock. It is hard to just stop something this big. The 80 odd square KM caldera area is but a small part. Do we matter in this no, we are not in the process.
Eeeek. I feel totally insignificant and powerless.
I am still going for a NE flank collapse, right in to the fissure, VE 6+, bad disruption etc, news bad etc...I have upped it to a 6+ from a plain 6...I have a feeling the rifting lets go irreversibly once started, and we started rifting ages ago...The long haul, with occasional volcanoes that erupt whilst the fissure erupts, that sort of long haul.
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What is fascinating about this eruption is that it is creating its own micro climate.
Radar and satellite show the persistent high reflectivity over the area.
http://en.vedur.is/weather/observations/radar/#type=radare
It is the heat of the Earth and the gasses, behaving in ways they usually only do in the lab. I am astonished and profoundly at awe.
Our maker is here, we are small.
I am not allowing myself coffee now as I think I will go off on one...LOL
Tea only for me...If only to keep a clear head.
Situation as at 20:25 IT
My view is that we are in a trough of activity ATM -
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Lava fountains look spectacular tonight..and devils are a plenty 6 even!
And 2 twisters, Kelvin Helmholtz clouds in the back ground, what a view..
OMG
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Still there, if it still there in the tomorrow, it will be interested even more, talk about encapsulating....
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try this
Looks fine thank you stratty.
No camera ruining shock wave then...
Wonder how the distant cloud over Bada is?
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Cams back on
Not Yet, I have tried in several places
The lovely http://www.midhus.is/webcam/Webcam.jpg is still there(Iceland time _ hour...)
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They will be back unless there has been above a 4, although, shockwaves can be damaging for miles in a VE 1... Prob some generator packed up, maybe...10% outsider...
Gross outside chance aurora effect stirs magma up LOL John P.
I will get my coat... Truth be told, the aurora and the rifting may well be influenced by the same group of things that are always going on.
Science disagrees unless it is buried in truth sometimes, no hunches and beliefs allowed, for our "health and safety"
Probably quite dangerous at the moment regarding the sensors... If lava is flowing it is not making any noise, that could be either very good, or very bad, the bad would have brass knobs on it is that bad,
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They will be back unless there has been above a 4, although, shockwaves can be damaging for miles in a VE 1... Prob some generator packed up, maybe...10% outsider...
Gross outside chance aurora effect stirs magma up LOL John P.
I will get my coat... Truth be told, the aurora and the rifting may well be influenced by the same group of things that are always going on.
Science disagrees unless it is buried in truth sometimes, no hunches and beliefs allowed, for our "health and safety"
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Isn't it? I should be doing some work.....
Instead I'm watching volcanic plumes
I thought I could leave it alone, but I must know what is happening.
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Great Catch Rusty well done
Thank you, but I still could be wrong, we will see..
This volcano is the most interesting of things...
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Netweather exclusive Gotcha 2 yes 2 plumes.......
May be not we will seeI think Jon was right
The hottest clouds around...
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/Ther is a slight chance that events might have caught up with the webcams, like a shock wave. Only slight, but worth mentioning.
NASA pic :-
Thanks for that, pals. ATM At the moment
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Stunning and scary in equal measures there JP. Thanks for posting it
The outgassing is the beast here, the lava and its inexorable progress are but second fiddle.
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The new eruption is in the center of Mila 1, the clouds forming above it are a tell tale. This is in the background, not the foreground river damming malarkey, that is a different issue.
Jon Frimann was right first time, we will see, I am 90%... Check out some pictures posted on Volcano cafe and Jon Frimann's site, if in doubt just Google.
The heat is keeping the steam from being visible until conditions allow, just like the fissure we have been watching for days.
In my opinion this earthquake says the rifting pressure is still on folks, historic times indeed. http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=399075
Basically the heat generated by the tearing apart of the North Atlantic Ridge, deep underground this tearing has caused friction that has critically raised the temperature, some more volatile rocks riase as a result, "rifting fissure eruption" very dangerous beast, not witnessed before in the computer age, infact not seen like this for 100's years.
I am going to keep an eye on this no matter where I am or what I am doing.
Look at the persistent cloud... I think it is a sign of hot gasses getting out and heating up the free water in the air above the glacier. It is evaporating then rising then condensing as a cloud on and off, just like above Fawley fuel works... Sorry refinery...They must think we are stupid on the Isle of Wight if we don't notice the pollution that cars and transport does "twice"
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I think the steam is from the river hitting the lava flow, out of sight below the van, I think they can see better in the van as they are near the steep drop off.
If the glacial fissure shows up I think it will be between the van and the active fissure, right at the back, just a small red spot at first, I guess.
The big quakes have died down maybe lava is flowing freely now it has removed some obstructions...Time will tell.
Hekla felt that one on Reykjanes peninsula
Stresses and strains abound...BBQ finished...
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Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity
in Space, Science & nature
Posted · Edited by Rustynailer
Difficult to tell accurately but, I'll have a go.
I think he fissure has erupted under the glacier, it is the thin bit of the glacier nearest the existing fissure eruptions., just another crack in the fissure line, but nearer Bada and under ice.
The gasses coming out of the fresh eruption and what were coming out of the original eruption in its later stages earlier today, signal a subtle change in magma composition, it is more evolved, this means that the magma coming out now is stuff that was near the surface and has nearly erupted before, it has being lying around for 100's years. Evolved magma can be very dangerous, gas content can be different and it can be more explosive lava sometimes.
I watch with interest and awe, Badabunga is still emptying its (now partially evolved) magma down the fissure, some is taken up by the spreading North Atlantic fissure, some is erupted, either way Bada gets more dangerous by the hour, that caldera will reach a critical point over the next day or two I speculate.
I aught to add that evolved magma can make a noisy tremor signal as it is volatile stuff, also tremor spikes are likely due to fresh eruption areas.
There are other reasons perhaps, but these two fit the bill ATM...