Rustynailer
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Posts posted by Rustynailer
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I think the North Atlantic Rift poses little danger at the moment.
The stress relief at Iceland will demand counterbalance.
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For selfish reasons I want it to continue! I am ADDICTED!
Strange thing about us humans, we thrill to danger, both sexes..
It will go off I am afraid, yes it will be annoying and potentially fatal to humans, how many humans, up to half of them if she was feeling like it, we are truly at the mercy of the North Atlantic Rift.
Worse thing is, she has cross faults, South of Iceland right down to the Azures and beyond, that look alarming on Google Earth. Mag 9 strike slip stuff, Iceland Rift/North Atlantic Rift, has just loaded some pressure all along herself.
Just rumbling along, stretch, twist and shake.
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The plume is looking subdued compared to earlier on and no earthquakes in the last hour. I wonder if the eruption is coming to an end at least for now.
Karyo
Yes like EJ 2010, exactly.
Some Icelanders(1r2) are speculating, that with the GPS movements the land next to and including the caldera at Bada has twisted around a bit. Twisted being the key word.
In my opinion, the twisting of a vertical shaft in mining due to outside influence is likely to cause sudden collapse of the said shaft. When otherwise viewed than mining.... A truly vertical shaft is safest of the shafts one can drive. Caldera shaft is safe but if you twist it.... Oh dear/deer.... Obviously the deeper you drive a shaft the pressure says that the sides cave in if you do not take precautions.
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Who by? I think it's great!
Not sure but if you can pronounce Tungafellsjökull, then at least one of us could ask over the phone, actually I cant pronounce it......
Mila 1 in some far off planet in star wars mode...
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It is indeed and I like that Icelandic song!
I was told to turn it down
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Still reading, video is great.
It has quietened seismically, now Iceland is at her most dangerous. Always been this way there.
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I have been thinking about Badabunga, the options for the future, I have thought of another one or two.
Eruption at the fissure stops rifting stops, Badabunga caldera slowly collapses, without immediate eruption, say over a few months. Then eruption. VE 4-6, large glacial flood.
Other options are continual rifting eruptions in the same place and new places, but towing the line of the current active fissure and Volcanoes going off as they are set off by the rift.
Bada is in full contact with the mantle has been for 1000's years, that's why the lava is so runny...(simply put)
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Depends whether the magma has found a place to flow freely without obstruction. If that's the case less earthquakes. I suspect that we will have a large stress relating quake again soon and the quakes will pick up again.
Yes it is about the time when it could just stop, or move on to the next bit, truly safer if it stops, for all of us.
The weather has now cleared and the plume is visible in the Mila webcam.
Also, the earthquake activity seems to be on the up again.
Karyo
We will see if this evenings viewing presents us with some Mag 5's or nothing, either way it is new ground and we are unable to predict what this rifting episode will do next, truley nobody knows.
A stunning album of a glacier trip and an alternative view of the eruption.
http://dreki.smugmug.com/Photo/Volcao-trip-September-2014/i-mntF8Dx/A
Couple of examples.
I have been amazed at the photographs from this eruption, it is so memorable thanks to those who strive for that perfect shot, well done them. Thanks for posting G_F
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And there is the biggest concern for most people Rustynailer, from one little word that you just typed;
Mantle
Yes that is coming up under Bada and filling in to the fissure from there, the scientists reported that the thin runny lava coming out of the fissure was evolved magma combined with fresh material from the mantle.
It is not happening along the fissure, just at Bada this is perhaps why the caldera is only sinking slowly.
Lava sampling on the 9th http://earthice.hi.is/petrology_holuhraun_lava_gudmundur_heidar_gudfinnsson_and_sigurdur_jakobsson slightly olivine-normative tholeiite (0-5 wt% ol) The Olivine bit is decompression melt below Bada I think.
Bada is the source of the magma, the mantle is keeping the lid on things by topping the chamber up. if the fissure breaks new ground and lets the pressure off a bit, the mantle will get more, involved.
Just a matter of time.
There are no quakes from deep down for two reasons, the first is the opening is already open, second there has been no rush as yet...
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I see a change of depth to 2 km for it
John,Karyo and Rustynsiler the speed of confirmation from IMO says a lot.
Indeed it does, todays spreading of the fissure. Latest from IMO
The magma from Bada is combining with fresh mantle material and filling up the void created by the spreading rift.Quite a lot of movement in the 40km or so of rift.
Looks like business as usual
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Not 100% checked but looks like location in the Bardarbunga Caldera North East flank .
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/
They checked that one quick, It must have rang a few buzzers.
This caldera is going down noisily and accelerating I suppose.
That EQ could be bigger than 5.2, the check was quick and it will still need reworking.
She is still OK in the background center right, Bada 2
21:22 UKGas tornadoes at night 21:27 UK
The last EQ at Bada was bigger, it could be a 5.5 or more, Look at the Hekla strain meter.
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Some good pictures and the lava meeting the river too...http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2752299/Stunning-pictures-Bardarbunga-erupting-days-airlines-banned-flying-it.html
Sulfur dioxide map animation on this page is kept up to date http://www.eumetsat.int/website/home/Images/ImageLibrary/DAT_2316893.html#plume
Today from NASA
The view from Bada 2 at 21:10 UK
Badabunga is distant right.Bada 1 at 21:12 UK
Large EQ, mag 5 at 20:55 ish Iceland time
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Seems to be going on, todays quakes at the Bada volcano, all checked automatic to 90% subject to change by manual review.
I have only grabbed the list of the Badabunga volcano its self nothing else on the map is in the list.The slow caldera collapse, discussion is on going, I have noticed comments by scientists over the past few days, first it was 18m, then over night it wen't to 20m then 22m now it has dropped a further 20m, I would say yes, the relatively slow fashion of the caldera collapse is safer slower for now if it just stops and the fissure stops erupting, problem with this whilst it is on going, is the water, in the glacial lake and the glacial melt water above that, if the caldera bottom lets in water there will most likely be an explosion, which lets in more water then, an eruption. Askja caldera collapsed slowly after an extremity violent eruption. Bada is not erupting it is just leaking lava into a fissure next door. the potential(perhaps the wrong word as it is collapsing at the moment) serious caldera collapse in this case is before the eruption, if it does not stop collapsing it will erupt as the glacial lake will have nowhere to go but down to the hot depths, the deeper it gets before contact the larger the caliber the barrel is, just like a gun. Deeper longer more powerful.
I still go for flank collapse NE, but if the caldera drops deep enough before this happens then the more dangerous scenarios are within the frame of possibility.
It could just stop, I hope it does, it is far to dangerous a beast to wish for I think.
Latest picture from Mars, sorry Iceland....
Latest
Bada grumbles alright.Looks pretty now, dangerous beasts often are
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Thanks Rusty
truely interesting times ahead whichever way it goes. If she does blow big I wonder what effect it will have on the fault lines around the world and if it might trigger some really big earthquakes elsewhere time will tell
No problem, I only hope people in the UK don't get too worried about this, best keep an eye on it but do not worry, worrying I am afraid is likely in Iceland at the moment, I feel for those people, I hope it is lesser eruption rather than greater for their sake. But facts are facts, Bada is critically wounded underground right now, on the surface is just a large caldera that is sagging a bit...
It looks like the edge of the glacier to me but it is not very clear.
Karyo
Yes I was not sure, that is why I posted the pic.
Nice to see they got the ASK station back up and running. Another mag 4 looking at the file...
Lots of small very hot gas tornadoes today, here are some from a minute ago...
Quick look at the Auto correct map with the latest auto recorded EQ's stretching off into the distance...
Nice pic at 12:26 UK time
This person is where its at I think https://www.facebook.com/jardvis?fref=photoBusy today already, it is not stopping at the moment.
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Seems to be possible glacial flooding starting, Not sure. Bada 2 cam.. I have marked the shot
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As an aside to the wondeful updates on this thread which is truely fascinating. As there is more and more talk of Booom could someone outline what the consequenses might be for bad, very bad and very very bad outcomes noted in some of the posts. Many thanks and again great thread.
Well without being alarmist, I will give a calmly spoken version
Caldera collapse version 1 the slow collapse, lots of small eruptions out gassing and occasional travel disruption. Could go on for months, The fissure independent of the volcano will stop on its own timetable.
Caldera collapse version 2 the partial collapse of say one flank of the volcano down the side and through the glacier, bad glacial floods with icebergs crashing down the flood plane the size of several streets in my local town, very disruptive to air travel in the area, dangerous for Icelanders may even kill, probably over pretty quick. Though the fissure eruption would stop when it wants.
Caldera collapse version 3 sudden total collapse of 80 square kilometers of ice at 600m thick on average down in to the very hot magma chamber of the worlds largest stratoVolcano, extremely loud and damaging explosion, debris of which could travel over 100 miles, large 7+ mag earthquake, possible local tsunamis when the glacial floods reach the sea, maximum disruption for months as the stuff that has gone up in to the sky slowly falls out. This will kill people in Iceland.
The eruption its self would end there, but the fissure eruption will stop when it wants.
Version 4. No caldera collapse and the whole episode dies down, at the fissure and Badas discretion.
Version 5 the fissure goes on and Bada does not much at all, in 6 months we will be noticing the effects of all the SO2 loading up the atmosphere like it did with Laki eruption.
My take is version 2 with a flank collapse NE quadrant of Badabunga. 90% chance in my opinion. Has been the same for me since I noticed the ring faulting and the potential fissure undermining of Badabunga. over a week ago I think.
I must say we may notice the effects of this volcanic episode in the UK, but only environmentally, with dust/ash and gasses, not with direct effects of eruptions and quakes. How bad we get it is anywhere from nothing to a Laki style event.
Don't forget, this could all just stop and that will be the end of the matter, no body knows for sure, no scientists have ever seen this before it is new to them.
Here is a wiki on Laki as I mentioned this volcano and its effects http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki
Somebody on another site has done a calculation of the energy released by the quakes so far in this eruptive episode, it is truly massive, the Russian Tsar Bomb was 50 megaton this episode has done 75 megaton up to now...
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ty Rusty cams gone all misty now i will continue to watch.
The wind has changed, it has reveled a possible hot spot, or rather a cloud that may stay above it, may stay being the operative here...
Comparison with the infamous Laki eruption...
The haze on the Mila cams is gas from the eruption and dust from the previously very dusty plain, probably at deadly levels today maybe even by the camera station, but definitely fatal down by the lava field
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Can anybody tell me wyh the small tornadoes are bieng created on cam 1 of live feed?
Convection, or rather super convection off of the 600 degrees hot lava field. Sort of storm chase from the armchair.
Here is a tweet grab of the same thing the other day.
Well it looks like Askja station ASK has broken down, I hope they service it soon.
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Those events today are pretty much 24hrs after yesterdays and have a similar profile (if not magnitude) so I am now thinking man made, I can almost picture a change of shift for the scientists. I would have assumed the seismometer would have been located a good distance from any stationing of personnel but maybe not. If there is a generator running at the hut then that could also explain the baseline noise.
I think we will know for sure if the quake makes the 99% cut off, or is removed by the IMO. There does appear to be a slight correlation RE:- ASK and DYN stations, but I am not sure either way 100%.
Looking at the Auto map I posted above it is real, but I suppose machines are fallible, we will see.
Slight match ...ask...dyn...
Changes in magma pressure are hard to interpret as are non fracturing movements and blockages underground, when dealing with semi-solid crystal mush, it is almost impossible to nail it.Arr wait a minute this happened yesterday aswell, all change...just look at the fissure cloud all disorganized and reduced compared to half an hour ago.
Pressure change at the vent I think, something going on out of sight under that glacier, or toward Askja, maybe. IMO brown and green Askja chart has stopped, could be nothing... Hope scientists are OK
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Anyone with a better understanding than me have any views on the Askja plots from the IMO?
and the tremor graph also from the IMO
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/ask.gif
Baseline noise started around 10am yesterday morning with some unusual small events that I suggested may have been rockfall or human interference but it seems to have continued for 24hrs now. Picking up noise from the lava field maybe or something more worrying or nothing out of the norm?
Looks like a much bigger version of what happened yesterday, maybe somewhere along the fissure or Askja herself.
There are scientists staying in the Hut at Askja, either its them making noise or it is the Earth, one or the other.
Looks like it is a real one only auto to 90% at the moment , so position and size etc, subject to change.
SO2 looks to be grouping above Russia, I would think this will circumnavigate the globe at this latitude in a couple of weeks if this output continues from the gassious fissure eruption, perhaps Bada caldera may change this one way or the other...
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We all safe here Rusty nice and far away. However if the gas keeps going and high pressure remains stuck over us it may get interesting.
The Laki scenario, is the glowing thought ever since I noticed the FAX charts from our Met O....
I hope for a multi-volcano fireworks display and a few cold Winters. Nothing more.
Having a little ginger DNA probably helps me with this
.But a Laki is altogether different and worrying in a far more sinister way. Still having some ginger in me gives me a fighting chance of survival, so hey what the hell...LOL.
I joking loudly .
Hope it is not Laki, mate.
Regards.
Carls mate has put a few more pictures on Flikr...https://www.flickr.com/photos/35133216@N05/
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Interesting that Askja has gone quiet again. Perhaps the dike feed has become blocked and the quakes further back are due to a pressure build up.
She responded to the change earlier today, then nothing... Perhaps she is like Hekla and quite sensitive to the important things, like dogs and cats, we respond to everything, they respond to the things that count...
Further away than yesterday, that is further back, so we get a better view, but it is in a more dangerous position.
Fluid dynamics and river type lava erosion come in th play under pressure and heat underground... Encapsulating and yet traditional in these parts I would expect, the Vikings were in awe at the place.
Hells gate, I think they went back home the first time they saw the rage in the place, when it chooses, even known to allow rhythm and then snap' like a preying mantis,
Great viewing on the Internet tonight, just hope we are all safe ... No pic, can't think of one.
Lucas eat your ...
LOL if only we knew what it meant... I posted the same picture 3 times, such is life...Grumbling internals I think
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Hi Rusty,
Those clouds look different and camera2 is showing nothing but shaking a lot. All looking dodgy again
Hi NNW. Yes this is the thing, it is a change in weather conditions and simultaneously a change in the eruption, sods law...
I am sure the fissure has gone back toward Bada and thus reducing the nearest fissure to the camera, to hardly anything. So many variables...
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"you can see how the Holuhraun eruption compares to New York: the lava would now cover Manhattan to 53rd Street and its volume would frame the entire Empire State Building, except the tip of the antenna."
Like that bit , it sort of gets it in to something we can relate too.
I must point out that until we see the evidence from the camera or IMO, that a fissure eruption has started nearer the Bada volcano, under the glacier.
It is only me assuming what is going on, it could be nothing like what I have said in the posts above.
We will see
Strains throughout Iceland from this, Hekla is a hair trigger sort of beast, don't take too much tugging and pulling...
This morning at 10
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Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity
in Space, Science & nature
Posted · Edited by Rustynailer
Thing is they have all happened before, most likely in Iceland.
Badabunga is still inflating, but the rift is spreading, the balance is being kept up by the pressure from the mantle, subtly evolving the magma in a pseudo Hawaiian style.
Pseudo, Hawaii is not Iceland it is the Opposite version of the Same, regarding lava it is the opposite pole of the runny family. Hawaii is a Judge and Iceland got sent to prison.
Iceland is on a rift. Boom. How soon, soon enough, just let us forget a bit.
Now that's all for tonight(if your lucky), don't forget, most humans live far enough away from the worlds most dangerous volcano(as at 21:03 ... 12/09/2014.) to not worry over 50%, unfortunately the UK is in the range of total inhalation, which is nice, I think as a species we are very silly and we do not belong, period.
dyn station malfunction, on and off...Not anything other than a note
I on the otherhand belong because I thought of it first.
There has been a distraction and something is stirring...
Putting it into perspective; Coal is 50% a result of rifting episodes, the event catastrophically rips up the forest,.... like a Tsunami in Japan and deposits the debris in accordance to principles of fluid dynamics, geological time then dictates that the deposit turns to coal...I rush a bit, but you know where I go.