Frosty.

It's a difficult balance to strike between pessimistic and realistic, fine margins. IDO is usually accurate with good technical input.

The Gfs 00z shows a much milder spell on the way, I think sidney is quite excited!

Both, ground in cities, air in towns and especially countryside. minus 4 in rural parts of England and Wales, minus 6 in parts of rural Scotland.

Well that's what I meant, there has been more cloud in the last day or so but as we import dry continental air this weekend, more sunshine and more clear skies overnight = the frost will return more widely..and into early next week.

Agreed, it's not all doom and gloom, some parts have already had more frosts during late Nov and early Dec than the whole of last winter!

Well the good news is that frost will return this weekend, especially in rural parts where minus 4 celsius is likely but nearer minus 1 to plus 2 c in towns and cities. Increasing amounts of sunshine too as we import drier air from the continent, the sunniest weather today across southern england but then more widely across the uk tomorrow into the start of next week but then it's going to become much milder, breezier / windier with rain at times as winds turn southwesterly and we draw tropical maritime air up across the uk.

How cruel is this, bitter cold to the NE and bitter cold sweeping south through canada and down into the Atlantic with the uk bathed in mild!

The Gfs 18z would feel positively balmy from next midweek with tropical maritime air flooding across the uk, especially mild in the south with low teens celsius.

Well I don't think the models are as poor for cold as yesterday, there is a little potential in the extended Gefs 12z for a scandi high and very cold easterly airflow by or just beyond mid Dec. and for cold high over the uk too..I posted the charts a few pages back..there is also a hint of retrogression leading to a bitterly cold NEly..hoping support strengthens!

I mean neither chart is good but the Gem is just..well, mild

Given a choice, I much prefer the Ecm 12z day 10 over the mushy Gem

Surprisingly, there's very little mild on the Ecm 12z, it starts chilly and ends chilly with some average / mildish in the middle but as Gavin said, it becomes increasingly unsettled after a fine weekend and early next week..no blowtorch though!

I found some good output..in line with the MO extended outlook

I'm looking for signs of a colder anticyclonic second half to December and I found some on the extended GEFS 12z with a few peachy very cold ones..P17 P16 looks nice too!

A mild / mushy end to the Gem 12z

Well we coldies have had plenty of practise doing that haven't we I'm still clinging to the seasonal models colder anticyclonic second half of dec.

When the operational is hideous, best check the mean for signs of hope..plus, I'm sure some on here will like this run.

I'm not sure either but this weekend will see increasing amounts of sunshine, especially by sunday as drier continental air arrives and early next week should be bright / sunny, especially further south and east apart from where fog lingers. When the swly Tm air mass arrives, I expect there will still be some sunshine, mainly to the lee of high ground but there will be some rain around too, probably dullest across the western side of the uk from midweek.

Although the Gfs 12z becomes mild from next midweek, it doesn't look super mild with temps in the mid to high teens celsius like we saw last December, temps look nearer to 11-13c range with some sunshine but also bands of rain, especially affecting the north & west.

Well it's already started colder and frostier so early signs are good!

We are lucky that the PV is taking longer to become organised, in complete contrast to this time last year.

Well it looks like becoming significantly milder next week after a chilly, settled start and rain looks like gradually spreading south and east, even reaching southeast england towards the end of next week but the most unsettled weather looks concentrated across the northwest. Into the following week also looks mild and unsettled, especially in the north with the best of the fine weather further S / SE. From around mid december there is still a signal for high pressure to regain control but confidence is not as high as recently.

Great post legritter, love your enthusiasm! Although the models show next week becoming milder / mild..I have a feeling it will be short-lived.

Agreed, it looks better further upstream

Looks like it would continue..