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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm sure the models are struggling...and I'm struggling to see any realistic prospect of snow for the rest of this year, pretty grotty output for cold / snow lovers..back to the youtube videos to get my snow fix. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Amazing Gfs 18z tonight, very little actually happens..The end -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a changeable outlook with the best of the fine weather to be found further s / se and the most unsettled conditions further n / w. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
An instantly forgettable Ecm 12z..give me the Gefs mean which looks much more settled in the run up to and potentially including christmas. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don't forget the JMA Right now I would settle for a chilly settled outlook as the gefs continues to show with plenty of frosts! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 12z mean shows there is strong support for an increasingly anticyclonic spell returning next week, especially from later next week until christmas bringing a largely settled outlook into the mid range with overnight frost and fog and crisp bright days but fog could again mean particularly cold days where it lingers with borderline ice days like some of us saw last week..it could be a cold christmas. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't mind zonality as long as its cold zonality! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good to see two consecutive Gfs runs showing seasonal cheer during christmas week..more please. Ho Ho Ho -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Judging by the latest models, it's happening as fergieweather said last night, marked swing compared to recently. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If we are going to see wild swings in the output, it can only be a good thing for wintry weather lovers!means we have a good shot instead of boring predictability. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Almost a repeat of how last night's Gfs 18z ended..I'm not complaining though!christmas week snow..yes please -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That sounds good Fred, northerly shots would be most welcome! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So all bets are off basically, anything can happen which must be potentially good news for coldies looking for snow -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tonight's Ecm 12z T+240 ensemble mean and operational have something in common, they both show high pressure firmly in charge. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would like to think so..but in any case it looks like settled chilly weather will be returning by mid month or a little sooner, at least further east and south. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
True, just like the GEFS mean, surface cold would return with similar conditions to a few days ago. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There's a surprise Coldies need a sense of humour to get through a British winter. Ecm 12z ends on a high note -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 12z mean indicates stronger support for an anticyclonic spell beyond the current mild / changeable phase with increasing surface cold bringing frosty foggy nights and fine crisp days which would be particularly cold where fog lingers, it then gradually trends more unsettled during christmas week but stays cold. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would be more concerned if there was no cold showing at all but there clearly is. :- ) -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nobody has said anything is nailed on from ten days plus apart from tongue in cheek but it's reasonable to comment on cold ensembles / op runs whatever the timeframe as most of us are looking for snow seeing as its supposed to be winter. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes it's not all doom and gloom, I still see a change to settled weather with frost and fog mid month and we will take it from there, just because the experts can't see anything significantly wintry later in December doesn't mean it can't happen..The weather doesn't obey any rules! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree the reliable is poor but FI is up for grabs and its a good place to start looking for longer term trends..sometimes they are on to something and as a cold / snow lover I'm really looking hard for signs and there are some showing. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And there were some peachy cold runs within the 6z suite too, things are looking up! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We are looking for signs of hope rather than wallowing in misery. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We like to look on the bright side of life so I agree, let this trend be our friend! Encouraging signs from the models again today.