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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There were plenty of mild winters in the 1980s Anyhoo, change is afoot with a spell of unsettled Atlantic driven weather on the way for the second half of this week which could continue on and off into next week. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You misunderstood me, I said overall it will average out mildish with some mild days and nights and colder interludes..nothing too get excited about though. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It will be mildish, the devil will be in the detail but it certainly won't be a cold christmas period with spells of wet and windy weather racing in off the atlantic. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's OTT, any hill snow will quickly melt as a mild incursion comes through, one after the other. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree it won't be a very mild christmas but it will be mildish overall. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed, more salt needed to deal with the slimy Euro slug! The models are firming up now on an unsettled christmas period with a succession of deep Atlantic depressions winging across the uk with mild incursions separated by colder interludes..preety standard stuff really. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
1mm of wet slush if you are lucky -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Amazing Gfs 18z run with a risk of disruptive snow for some of us at times, especially scotland as well as bouts of heavy rain and severe gales..boring it most definitely isn't! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Absolutely, something to look forward to and a cold christmas eve with wintry showers and snow for some..am I dreaming! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wow plenty of interest from the Ecm 12z with alternating cold / mild air masses from later in the week onwards with snow likely to feature at times..better than the first 2 weeks of winter where there has been nothing really to talk about apart from mild benign dry and dull! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Ecm 12z shows a nice blast of cold zonality with 520-522 dam with blustery increasingly wintry showers with snow down to modest levels thru late wed / early thurs across the nw..opening salvo of wintry weather! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I disagree, I expect snow to low ground at times too in the n / nw later in the week, not confined to highest ground at all! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed, we have spent more than enough time already discussing benign mild dross and the models are showing cold zonality looking likely for the first time this winter which is only 3/4 days away..looking forward to it! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Plenty of wintry interest on the Gfs 12z, especially for the n / nw in what looks like a very unsettled / disruptive outlook with lots of wet and windy weather but snow at times for some. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You have snow showers to look forward to later in the week, one of the coldest parts of the uk from a cold zonal westerly flow! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There is plenty of cold zonality on the Gfs 6z so northern hills and mountains would see lots of wintry ppn with snow at elevation and the scottish mountain resorts would do very nicely thanks very much. Ps..fab post as usual Tamara, merry Christmas to you -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's good news as most of us don't want a storm disrupting the busy christmas period but I am hoping for some cold zonality for the first time this winter, which is what some of the models have shown today. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That sounds familiar, is that what I posted -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Whilst the christmas period looks unsettled and potentially disruptive, the GEFS 12z mean shows a return to benign anticyclonic conditions towards new year and into early January with an increasing risk of frost and fog. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Ecm 12z is an upgrade in terms of cold zonality compared to earlier..there would be a risk of snow at times and not just on northern hills..quite a wintry stormy outlook being shown for the christmas period.I suspect northern hills would get a good dumping at times and even the south on hills could see an occasional wintry mix. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There is actually quite a lot of cold zonality on the Ecm 12z from thursday onwards with snow at times in central and northern uk, especially on hills within a very unsettled and windy period with plenty of rain too. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm just looking for positives Nick, and the first snow of the winter is being shown later next week with wintry showers and transient frontal snow, especially on hills in the north. It all ties in with met office thinking with alternating milder / colder interludes before high pressure returns for the new year. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But the models are showing snow later next week, happy days!