Long haul to mild

Interesting trough feature on the 120 chart there for East Anglia.

This run looking more like the last two ECM runs with that High in charge over Scotland. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0

The WMC Moscow model is forecasting dark days next week; bet that's an outlier....... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wmce_cartes.php?ech=120&code=&mode=0

Ah, sorry, of course, the locations have disappeared from the thread at the moment! I'm in Suffolk.

I love it when people congratulate posters who have made a correct call for zonal conditions. Considering the general Weather patterns in the UK, It's a bit like praising to the skies someone who every season says that Manchester United have a good chance of winning the Premiership! Fascinating models again tonight, and very good for my neck of the woods. But I would happily give up some of that snow so everyone can join in! UKMO the pick tonight; ECM great in the early stages but I don't like its sinking high evolution much and it has now shown that for two consecutive runs. However, it's FI though and we have some very interesting weather to look for in the meantime!

Not too worried about toppling highs over a week away given the differences in the models at the moment. We are in a much better place than we were yesterday when the GFS kept bringing in SW'lys for Tuesday; there is plenty of snow on all the models now, albeit with different areas affected depending on which model you view. The GEM has gone poor admittedly, but it's not reliable enough in my view to be particularly significant at this stage. The broad pattern is cold this morning, but which version of cold is still very much up for grabs!

What exactly is the COAMPS? I have seen it on Meteociel but considering it doesn't even get trotted out on here as a straw clutcher in a Bartlett dominated spell, it must be truly awful!

It has to be the slowest releasing model I've ever seen, but it is sticking with some lovely cold synoptics!

Steve M said to look out for the 18z to maybe fall further in line with the Euro models, so I will certainly be following it with great interest. It would be so much better for future prospects if we could get it on board for cold!

Netweather presents! "Model Implosion" starring: The GFS The ECM And the UKMO ....in an epic battle of good (cold) v evil (mild). In a rip-roaring edge of the seat thriller, uk cold lovers including Nick S, Steve M and TEITS come together to fight "The Scupperer" (played by Ian Brown) and his army of shortwaves who, along with a powerful northerly tracking jet stream are trying to finish off the hope of countrywide snow. At every turn snow forecasts are dealt a blow by yet another lone GFS run but together with legendary internet forecasters, the Euro models and stratospheric backing, the coldies will not give in easily. Only time will tell who will prevail but this will be a fight to the finish and to the victor, THE SPOILS. Also starring: A load of flip-flopping lesser international models Lots more great knowledgable weather bods from the Net Weather forums And a load of contradictory melodramatic ham actors (also from the forums) Now showing on your local PC / Laptop / Mobile device. Admission free!

MOGREPS ultimately is just another model though, and is as fallible as any of the GFS/ECM/UKMO, especially at day 8.

Here we go again, posts congratulating a model on getting it right when we are still a long way away from any agreement or consensus. It can be a totally maddening experience on here to be honest and this morning is a low point.

If the GFS is right for next week, then the worst thing about it won't be that we didn't get the cold and snow, it will be all the tedious wrist slashing posts writing off January and calling time on winter! The GFS is against everything else, other major models, anomaly charts, and it's powering up of the vortex is completely off kilter with the signals. But if it is right, then I am going to lose a lot of respect for the other models!

Excuse me, I thought that the vast majority of the models were showing cold and blocked next week, but judging by some of the posts on here, the GFS is already right and we might as well write off next week! Some on here are just on wind ups I'm certain, which are far more annoying to us less knowledgable members than emotional one liners.

But as you said earlier Ian, the 18z has never decided anything. GFS might be on to something but it's got some serious competition from other heavyweight models.

Not bothered in the slightest about the JMA; despite the Met Office supposedly regarding it highly, I don't hold much truck with it. Need GFS to get on board though!

Well, virtually every model has been trotted out tonight, so allow me to add the Russian WMC! Not exactly the most reliable usually but it looks nice at T120 so it's getting an airing! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wmce_cartes.php?ech=120&code=&mode=0

Another great chart from what is rapidly becoming my favourite model! Thanks for sticking with it too CV, a real devotion to duty, seeing as it comes out about as fast as treacle up a hill!

That Chinese model is leaving me hungry for more! Ahem....... Anyway, good to see that we have almost across the board agreement tonight; imagine there will be a few more dramas to follow but looking promising going into the weekend and next week.

Ensembles schmensembles! I've never trusted them and the Op runs are what we need to follow in the 5-6 days period. There are plenty of instances where the Op has followed the ensembles eventually and vice versa. To me, that just shows that they can't be relied upon and we should all stop trying to torture ourselves with the set from the latest GEFS. The op runs may downgrade a bit (they could hardly get much better!) but IF they have the general pattern anything like correct, then as Nick S said earlier, there is no easy way back to mild. Fascinating and exciting period coming up!

Still pleasing on the eye at T192

Thanks IF, brady, Nick S, and I'm dreaming.....All part of the valuable learning process on here! Personally, I think the ECM operational is wrong for next week, not that I have the science to prove it, this time the Atlantic is just not going to steamroller in!

I'm confused; Matt Hugo tweeted earlier that the ECM was an outlier against its ensembles but the graphs people are posting clearly show that it is very much in the middle of them. I appreciate that these ensembles are for De Bilt, but that is very close by (at least to where I live!) so would this really make all the difference? Also, do people like Matt get to see other graphs for locations other than De Bilt? I assume they do, hence his mention of it being an outlier. Can anyone help? Thanks.

Yes, the LP that threatened to stop the High ridging N just fades away, allowing progression of the ridge towards Greenland.

That small area of LP south of Greenland is squashing the Atlantic HP into the same circular shape that Steve M mentioned on the 12z. A little frustrating that it won't allow an elongated ridge into Greenland but to be honest, T138 is very much FI under current conditions.