Long haul to mild

So, big differences between the models as early as T+96. ECM sticking by its 00Z guns. Based on previous experience, which model usually predicts these potential E'ly setups most accurately?

ECM at T96 still not really interested in much of an initial Easterly shot.... ECM 96 And quite different from the GFS at T120 ECM 120

Snow has been coming down fairly steadily for about an hour ; now just the first few signs of it settling on paths. Looks like finally someone punctured a hole in the local snow shield

I think the worry about tomorrow's event stems from the fact that the GFS precipitation charts have been fairly consistent in saying that, as soon as the heavier ppn arrives tomorrow afternoon, it will quickly turn to sleet and rain in the far E and SE. Of course, they may be wrong and there's still a good chance of snow even for these areas in my opinion. Here's hoping!

Just had a couple of decent showers here leaving a dusting but according to the radar all the precipitation in the North Sea seems to have disappeared! Presume it will pep up again later?

Yes, not a great forecast for my area from the Beeb; not many showers on their graphics for tonight, then the snow quickly turns to rain tomorrow afternoon Still, as Geordiesnow said, it is only a guide; still lots to look forward to!

Yes, a very wintry day coming up tomorrow if they've got it right! Updated my signature in aniticipation of tomorrow!!

One minute it was sunny then very quickly it's clouded over with another snow flurry; things certainly getting interesting now!

You're right; I think I'm getting too tied up with that mild sector; tomorrow will do what it is going to do! Lots to look forward to in the next 24 hours first!

Hi Nick I think we're all a bit nervous over in the extreme E/SE because the GFS ppn charts continually show the mild sector invading early tomorrow afternoon (just as the heavier ppn comes in!) turning the snow to sleet / rain down here. Hope it is much later on as you say!

Latest GFS output still shows that, when the heavier precipitation arrives tomorrow afternoon (about 3 p.m.), it will be sleet and rain over EA / SE. Hope that's wrong; BBC forecasts this morning show a few hours of snow before it turns to rain about 6 p.m. in my neck of the woods. Real knife edge stuff! In the meantime, lots to look forward to later today / tomorrow morning!

Off and away again in Ipswich, nice big flakes now. Kold, what's your progonosis for Suffolk over the next couple of hours? Anything headed our way? Cheers

Seems to be turning increasingly to sleet here in Ipswich. A bit concerned that the rising temps that TEITS mentioned are going to kill off any chance of further accumulations here.

Snowing fairly steadily here in Ipswich, probably about an inch of lying snow now. Currently, the flakes are pretty small and I have the feeling that this will turn to sleet before too long unfortunately. Anyway, still good to see! Just spoke to someone near the Norfolk / Suffolk border who said it's snowing hard there, so hopefully it's heading your way.

Thanks TEITS, as long as I see something snowy falling from the sky in Ipswich, I'll be happy!

--> QUOTE(Paul B @ 7 Feb 2007, 03:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> .East Anglia will see some snow too, but it may well turn to rain near to the eastern coasts with the wind coming in off the sea. Thanks for the reply. I fear this may be the case; these situations have been very marginal in the past (I'm about 10 miles inland). Thanks John, will keep an eye out for it.

Was wondering that myself! Also, the NW forecasts based on the 06Z run show no snow for Suffolk at all, which appears to be contrary to what I am hearing elsewhere, or is it? Perhaps the 12Z will change things.

Moving into selfish mode, what do people think about the modelling of the Easterly limit of the ppn tomorrow? East Anglia hasn't been mentioned much today and a lot of the charts posted on here suggest that everything moves North quite readily but rather more slowly Eastwards. How are the models looking with regards to the track of the frontal system? The 06Z GFS doesn't seem to want to give us all that much chance of snow over in the extreme east; in fact none at all according to the forecast pages! What should I be looking for in the 12Z? Sorry, not much good at interpreting them myself!

Looking through some of the posts on here today, I am starting to get a bit concerned about the Easterly limit of the ppn tomorrow. There's a lot of posts about the Northerly limit but East Anglia has not been mentioned much. Is it likely to get across to East Suffolk or is the alignment of the front such that it will not reach here?

Just for the sake of completeness, here's the JMA for Saturday; somewhere between the GFS and ECM by the looks of it. Certainly doesn't back up the GEM and NOGAPS, so that's the outside bet at the moment. JMA

Yes, it certainly isn't going with the GFS re the weekend; it brings back more "standard" Atlantic weather on Saturday, especially for the South with the Low tracking to the North. Having said that, there's almost an Easterly at T216!

I'm working here in Martlesham about 3 miles North-East of Ipswich and we just had a fairly hefty hail/snow shower which left a light dusting but nothing even close to 6cm , so looks like we just missed out on all the action!

See what you mean Nick, the 216 chart is really close to something special. Of course, being the ECM it has to go and blow it all away and reintroduce the Atlantic at 240, but plenty of opportunities for cold on those charts. ECM 216

It's all been a bit disappointing here in Suffolk, considering that we were allegedly in the firing line for loads of showers. All the ppn charts pointed to this last week and earlier this week but the showers never really got inland at all and just drifted out to sea. We were just too far East for the Tuesday night event and just too far North for last night's (although we did manage a dusting here overnight so at least we got a little). I think the cold spell was a letdown here mainly because of the Northerly component of the flow; we really need an E'ly or a ENE'ly here. However, it was good to see some areas of the Midlands and Central Southern England getting some snow because they are not usually favoured for it. I think that hopes were raised last week by some stellar GFS runs which never quite came to fruition. The ECM generally performed better but even that model toppled the High too quickly, so the answer turned out to be somewhere inbetween the two. Back to model watching then as I still have high hopes for February!

Snowing lightly here in Ipswich, not much and not laying, but still nice to see! :blink: