ScottSnow

January 16

16 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS 12z deterministics idea of a Scandi high is a huge outlier amongst the ensembles.. but it’s an interesting one.

It’d usually be rather easy to ignore given it’s an outlier but what it shows does fit with the background forcing that has been discussed to death in recent weeks.

MJO progression east > +FT > +MT > Rising AAM tendency with the MJO eventually pushing into the Pacific, tropics & sub tropics then singing together for high latitude blocking.

I wonder if the GFS Det is picking up on this signal but being too progressive with it? Evidently there’s zero support currently but it’s a very curious one. The next few days could be interesting.

The GFS was showing mild outlier ops for next week that look like they will turn out to be true, so hopefully it’s picking up on something for a return to cold.

There were quite a few times last week where we heard that the op was on its own in the ensembles regarding the return to mild.

January 12

I think it’s pretty certain cold next week now, possibly seven days of cold weather. Although it looks quite dry at the moment, often we see disturbances cropping up at short notice. I wouldn’t get too downbeat about snow chances yet.

I know it’s been mentioned before but we only have to look at the past Nov/Dec cold snap for examples of this.

January 9

Certainly fascinating changes going on.

Regarding the volcanic eruption which has been rumoured on here to be the trigger for this increase in extent, do we know how long it’s impacts may last ?

January 9

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It’s over….no doubt about it…it’s over…….barr the 18z….which shows that a daily run means diddly squat. I read John Holmes’ post earlier today….many must have….and to me the ‘singular’ very changeable gfs rubs are garbage.

nothing is sorted yet, details are certainly not bagged….and raging SW’lies are way down the list

BFTP

I’ve just looked at the GFS 18z and thought exactly the same. People will be saying it’s the best model out there now.

To me we are still just looking at the general pattern coming up, which is still promising across all of the models.

Still a few days to go until we can even nail down what’s going to happen at the start of next week.

Very exciting model watching at the moment.

January 8

2 minutes ago, Zero Visibility said:

Yes very reminiscent of March 2013, snowed none stop for 30 plus hours here, but the cold was quickly gone and winter ended the day after.

The cold persisted until early/mid April in 2013. Check the model archives.

There was a big frontal snow event on the 22nd March. The cold won and then persisted until mid April.

You may be thinking of Jan 2013 when after two weeks of snowy weather, the mild air blasted through very quickly.

January 8

Messy setup on the GFS 12z but not unlike some of the ensemble members that we see. Still cold and potentially snowy run and maintains the overall theme.

We are still five days away from the beginning of the northerly flow so there is going to be some changes from run to run. The theme is the most important thing at this stage.

January 8

Great news in my opinion.

Thanks for the updates @Midlands Ice Age

January 8

Just now, sheikhy said:

Look at this belter of am ecm06z control at 144 hours!!!.....

It seems like the models are ‘upgrading’ the coming cold spell in terms of potency and duration, after the slight wobble a couple of days ago.

Definitely very exciting model watching coming up.

January 7

Not weather related but I took these photos of the coast up by Warkworth this morning. Fantastic coastline we have up here.

January 7

5 minutes ago, NorthEastSnow said:

Hoping this will be a sign to come, get the cold in and we just never know do we. Still don’t think we will get much, would love to be proved wrong though.

I don’t think we will see anything this week, possibly the hills might, but next week is supposed to be when the proper cold comes. I am not going to get too excited yet, if by Weds evening the cold charts are still showing then I will.

January 7

1 hour ago, NorthEastSnow said:

Just come back from playing football, it was like someone switched on the freezer half way though.

I was playing golf up in Northumberland earlier and driving back it started to rain as we approached Newcastle. The rain did become quite sleety in the heavier showers.

To be fair I was expecting it to be mainly dry today.

January 7

I’ve been out playing golf today and then doing some work this evening so I haven’t really looked at the models until now.

It’s going great as far as I can tell. The general pattern is there across all the models. Obviously the theme varies on each model but that’s to be expected a week away.

I think if we get to Wednesday evening and everything is still intact then we can start to get excited.

Regarding snowfall, there’s no point in even thinking about amounts at this stage. Let’s get the cold in first and opportunities will arise. Take parts of Cumbria in early Dec, heavy snow popped up at very short notice.

Overall though we are definitely heading in the right direction.

January 6

Have people not learnt their lesson from yesterday ?

Yesterday the GFS had a wobble but then had a couple of great runs in the 18z and 0z.

ECMWF has thrown out a run that could be better this morning.

The direction of travel is still the same. We are heading in the right direction. We are still over a week away from when the cold weather is forecast. There is going to be ups and downs.

I’m not going to worry. If we see some cross model agreement of what the ECMWF is showing then fair enough but at the moment, in my opinion, we are still on course for where we want to go.

January 5

After the disappointment earlier, what a run this is

January 5

It’s like the GFS is playing with us.

222hrs and polar low incoming to Scotland.

January 5

To me the 12z ECMWF maintains the theme of blocking to our north /northwest the week after next. The evolution isn’t as clean as we would like but the models could quite easily turn back to a more favourable evolution tomorrow.

We are still looking at charts that are over a week away. We aren’t going to know for certain what’s going to happen until this time next week.

I do think one or two people on here have been premature in thinking it’s a done deal for cold. As witnessed from todays runs things can still change but it is still all to play for. Enjoy the ride !

January 5

The GFS 12z, although not what we want to see, is still showing pretty cold conditions and maybe ties in with what forecasters have been saying about colder weather coming towards the end of the month.

To be fair cold and dry will do me fine if we get cold and snow later in the month or early Feb.

Whatever happens it’s going to be interesting weather watching.

January 5

Just now, That ECM said:

Not seen any post in here that says different to that summary.

Yeah next week was always forecast to be cold and dry. It’s the following week that is of interest…

January 5

Just now, cheshire snow said:

Isn’t this just typical of the GFS though.

shows you filth one day then goes AWOL to suddenly showing the filth again.its either picked up a new signal or its going off on one.not to be discounted of course,but I think its been barking up the wrong tree for the last few runs.

we will see.

It happens every year.

January 5

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

If the GFS is right (it's a MASSIVE if), then it'll be a huge dent in the confidence of long range models, teleconnections and global drivers. It would, for me, be the final time that I ever trust them.

If the GFS in wrong (far more likely), it just reinforces the fact that it's a hopeless model.

ECM 12z will be a key run. I'd like to see the GFS also backtrack.

Reading this thread over the past few days there has been so much self congratulation at charts +240hrs away. We may still see a decent spell of cold weather but it just seemed premature to me to be saying it’s a done deal.

Hopefully this wobble is just that and we see the clean evolution return.

The GFS has led us up the garden path so many times and let us down.

January 5

3 minutes ago, TN26 said:

I don't know how people in the model thread have the time or stamina to live in there for 18 hours a day.

I saw one very active member with 3k posts admit they didn't know what a east or west based NAO was yet was happy to give frame by frame analysis of each run.

I just want a 78/79 Dec/Jan or a Dec 2010 spell and if not I can't be bothered with a transient snow to rain scenario or a pot luck 10 mile wide streamer. If that happens great, if not I'll switch off until the summer and hope for a few storms.

The amount of time people must spend in there is mind boggling.

There has been a lot of back slapping the past few days, when we are still over a week away from seeing it through.

I’ve seen so many ‘nailed on’ cold spells go belly up to believe it yet. I’ve seen it go belly up within 90hrs so always try to proceed with caution.

I would love to see a notable spell of cold weather on par with Jan 10, Dec 10, Mar 13 etc. Hopefully it comes to fruition this time.

January 5

I’m not too despondent yet. We still have a long way to go and there are always wobbles.

If I remember the cold spell in early Dec disappeared from the models at one stage and we ended up with six days of lying snow here.

January 5

5 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

In terms of CET least coldest to coldest:

January 2013 and December 2008: 3.5C

December 2001: 3.4C

December 2022: 3.4C

January 2021 and January 2001: 3.2C

February 2018, January 2009, December 2009: 3.1C

February 2010: 2.9C

March 2013: 2.8C

December 1996: 2.7C

February 1996: 2.5C

january 1997: 2.4C

December 1995: 2.1C

January 2010: 1.5C

December 2010: -0.7C

Interestingly last time a winter month had a CET of exactly 3.3C was January 1978. Last time 3.0C was Feb 1981. Last time 2.6C was December 1963.

Thank you.

Very interesting reading.

January 5

2 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

There's a 2m temperature range of 8C for London on 15th, which illustrates how volatile the situation is at that range:

That being said, the highest temperature is only 6C, so certainly couldn't be described as mild.

I don’t think there is any doubt it will get somewhat colder around the 15th, the question is the depth of cold and the length.

We have seen it go belly up plenty of times in the past.

Hopefully with all the background signals etc, and from my amateur view of us ‘being due one’, we get over the line this time and see a notable spell of weather on par with Jan 10, Mar 13, Dec 10 etc.

January 4

19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just resurrected a thread relating to the cold spell of early Jan 97, a month that produced a notably cold CET at 2.5 by today's standards..

It has made me think what are the coldest top 10 months last 30 years.

Dec 10 will be no 1, followed by Jan 10, but not sure the order thereafter. Suspect the likes of Jan 97, Feb 10, Dec 96 will appear, any month below 3.5 degrees.. any answers?

The poster Weather History will probably know.

Ones that stand out to me Feb 94, Dec 95, Feb 96, Feb 01, Dec 09, Jan 10, Feb 10, Jan 13, Mar 13, Feb 21. These aren’t in order of severity.

Feb 05 had a notable spell but I think was warm to start with, same with Feb 06. Feb 09 started cold but ended warm. Feb 12 was very close to being cold but Europe got the worst of it. Feb 18 may be in it but I think the first half was pretty mild.

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