etched Chaos
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Posts posted by etched Chaos
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Can you see the UKMO/ECM/MOGREPS/NOGAPS/JMA/BOM being wrong at this distance? Any could be!
Dan
Fixed it for you.
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no the ecm only flipped yesterday and the ukmo not long before
Which was right about the time the GFS flipped. The GFS is not the best model so can we stop treating it like some holy grail of weather models. All models are wrong but the trend is for cold, the one lone dissenting voice is the GFS, which isn't even the best model for verification at this moment.
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The GFS is also the one model with a distinct bias to a dominant Atlantic, so really it's consistency means nothing until it gets support from another model.
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I dont see how the GFS can be wrong now thats 4 runs now thats very concerning and it picked up the signal for that big flip back in december before UKMO and ECM
Funny, there's been just as much consistency from every other model, so the GFS' consistency isn't exactly unique right now. So what do you place more weight in, the GFS, or every other model?
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Yes id rather see UKMO and ECM come on board with GFS now because overwise people will still be scratching there heads.
The GFS is the one dissenting voice right now and you want every other model to fall in line with it, just to alleviate confusion?
How about some positivity, that the GFS is wrong and it falls in line with everybody else before the weekend.
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I have to ask why the GFS' consistency is used as reason for the cold not holding? Every other model have been just as consistent as the GFS and all of them agree on sustained cold, so why are posters focusing just on the consistency from the GFS? If the UKMO think so little of the GFS that they use the EC over it then surely it's consistency is only worrisome when another model falls in line with it. Sure it spots trends but then with 4 runs a day it has twice the chance to spot trends and not to forget that other models spot trends too.
It just seems that there's a underlying want for the cold spell to never materialise so people can have something else to moan about this winter.
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-2c!? It's a balmy 3.2c here
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The Day after Tomorrow is on E4... Spooky.
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why have i lost my location? i see you have too.
Must be the Snow-shield, is affecting the forum too.
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it is ridiculously, and i mean ridiculously, warm outside here today - tshirt weather! so i can't see it snowing here or there either!
Was 9.9c at midnight, mild must really annoys me.
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New GFS has dropped my snow chance from 68% to 39%
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Thought it would be more busy in here, just tried making sense of the mod thread, now need a lie down
We all had our hearts broken in December, so we're holding out until we know there's actual cold coming.
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hi there.Do you have any reasoning behind your thoughts or is it just a hunch?The uk could go threw winter totally zonal but id be guessing if i said that .all the "fi strat warming and nao values"aside id be interested to know why you come to this???thanks
It's just common sense, with two months left, writing off winter now is a ridiculous notion.
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Etched, I've just looked out and the roofs are white.I'm over by Gapton, would you know if that's snow or frost, I'm not sure.
Been too wet today for frost, so probably some snow. You're further North than I am, so the spots of snow have been hitting you more often.
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Appparently it snowed today and I missed it! I chose that EXACT timeframe to take a long bath with no windows!
It was a shortlived affair, hardly lasted a few minutes.
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I've my fingers crossed that the beasterly comes to fruition. But if I end up in the snowless corridor again, I may explode.
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Now 1.3c, it's now getting warmer
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0.9c here, have the feeling i'll be the last to see sub-zero temps.
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on the contrary, its great cos it mean half the country is very close to being snow covered. note the 30hpa strat forecast takes the strat vortex towards eastern siberia late on again.
Ah, but that's if you exclude emotion from the process. Alas, I've never been very good at staying unemotional when it comes to cold weather.
It's why I'm glad GP hasn't erred from positive comments.
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It should still be cold though for you down South if we were to receive something wintery up here.
True, only for us Coastal fools it's going to be warmer than everywhere else. It's why I'm really hoping for a beast from the East and some good old-fashioned North Sea convection.
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YAY! I wondered where you were!!!!!!!!!
Unlike bears, I hibernate until winter
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etched, How are you my friend. Gonna try and get you some snow this time.
I'm jonesing for the white stuff, so send it my way if it comes by you
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A scalding 3.9c here
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no it is rather different from the 2208 issue on 25/11/12
It had updated after i posted.
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Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Actually they can and will continue to happen, the weather is not some stable thing that is easy to predict. No matter how much money you throw at it, the weather will still cause problems in the future, to think otherwise is to underestimate the complexity of the weather and the chaos it throws up.
Really? Seems to me from all signs from Ian F that they tend to ignore the GFS, so why would they be all confused? They believe it'll be getting colder, every model they place importance in agrees with that.