Norrance

January 10

5 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

Can you send the link plesse

It has been updated on the Met office thread.
Please go there to read it and discuss. Thanks

January 10

Remember that there is a thread for Met and BBC forecasts etc. Plese use it or posts will go missing.

Ta.

January 10

Yep, gfs has joined the party big style. Just for fun

January 10

11 hours ago, thebigyin said:

With the GFS op "different", and many of its ensembles bouncing about, and generally being warmer than ideal later in run, reading above then if op gets something different (maybe wrong, hopefully!) Is same difference/error across all ensembles to an extent? Or if we see another (I.e like a few years back where ECM was right and GFS stayed stubbornly different until just a few dsys until coldbreak occurred) correction towards other models do fundamentals in all ensembles change too.?

Very messy questions, apologies if makes no sense or daft!

The only worry is that it is consistently wrong. Certainly all looking good next week for the Highlands and Grampian with some potential elsewhere even on the gfs which could give a snowmaker to Southern/Central Scotland later in the week.

edit. Just looked again and ecm has moved potential snow further North later in the week. Gfs just not a clue.

January 9

35 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

It hammered down at times here tbf but just wouldn't settle

Probably the wet bulb temperature not being low enough.

January 9

4 hours ago, Norrance said:

Out at the Palace of Versailles.

Meanwhile here it is milder and cloudy but so far dry today. 3.8C

Following on from this she has missed her plane home and is stuck at least until tomorrow as on the way back through Paris her boyfriend wanted to stop and take a photo of the Eiffel tower in the snow so missed bus link to the airport and next one was held up by traffic. He is from Boat of Garten so you would think that he has seen enough snow scenes and likely to see more next week!

edit. To make matters worse the snow had melted around the tower by the time they got there.

January 9

50 minutes ago, Halfamilefromnowhere said:

Magical, and good covering at my folks in Normandy first for a few years

Out at the Palace of Versailles.

Meanwhile here it is milder and cloudy but so far dry today. 3.8C

January 9

Cloudier and milder than of late here this morning. 2C

Meanwhile my youngest is in Paris right now and woke up to this

January 8

Damp, cold and miserable sums up this afternoons weather. 0.8C with drizzle. I really do dislike it when it is raining at a surface temperature that could be snow

January 8

Some light showers here. Temp has just risen to 0.8C from 0.0C at lunchtime so air aloft must be warmer as definitely of rain and the frost has gone.

January 8

45 minutes ago, Halfamilefromnowhere said:

Thick freezing fog coupled with hard frost at minus 5.2, off out in the van to get stocked up ahead of next week. Sleet falling in Normandy too.

My youngest in Paris with her boyfriend and said it was snowing lightly there this morning. Heavier stuff for tomorrow forecast.

January 8

24 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

Morning all,

3c, a few (rain) showers to start the day. Overnight low 2c.

Just up the road here it is -3C with a light ENE breeze. Partly cloudy.

January 7

14 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

It's a perishing 4C here just now. What am I (as a Southern Softie) supposed to do?!

Move back up to the Highlands. Its going to be toasty up there from next week I hear.
A balmy -2C here now and the skies have cleared after a mostly cloudy and raw day.

January 7

When is this cold coming?
Max temp here today has been a raw 1.8C under cloudy skies and a light NE breeze.

January 7

A cloudy and raw day here though last nights frost has lifted. Max temp so far is a chilly 1.8C.

January 7

Remember that there is a thread dedicated to the Met O and BBC forecasts. Please leave this one for model discussion. Thanks.

January 7

My daughter and her partner are off to Chamonix in a week or so and are hoping that there is a fresh fall just before they go as from experience that area can be a bit of a bugger if it is icy. Looking good for some snow right now then dry and cold.

January 6

42 minutes ago, Dundeeguy said:

How long before beeb and met get fully onboard?

I think that the Met O are at least partly on board already for the foreseeable though the Beeb are not really going for anything but a coolish week ahead.
Here a lovely frosty sunny winters day at 2C with no measurable wind. Latest BBC outlook below.

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC Weather Centre.

January 5

44 minutes ago, PsychedelicTony said:

Polar Lows aren't picked up until they form I think?

Correct. John Holmes has a topic in the learning area that explains.
https://community.netweather.tv/learning/basics/polar-lows-r76/?do=getNewComment&d=1&id=76&_gl=1*drj0nm*_up*MQ..*_ga*MTM4NTUyMDkxNy4xNzA0NDk4Mjg3*_ga_PB759SXNQX*MTcwNDQ5ODI4NC4xLjEuMTcwNDQ5ODI4OS4wLjAuMA..

edit. Just to add that this one in the 18z is a low forming in the polar regions and coming down in the flow. Not the same thing.

January 5

Yes, cool and drizzly this morning but sky cleared pm and now -1C so an air frost. Maybe not the last one this month if the gfs 18Z is on point.

January 4

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Slight concern then, given UKMO text forecast still odds against deep cold, are they seeing another Hadley cell scupperment of a UK cold spell, as their forecast mentioning snow showers more for the North than anywhere else.

sounds like they're seeing a West based -NAO

They may be thinking of the initial push from the North when the high retrogresses later next week rather than any thing before.

January 3

Dreich sums today up right enough. When not heavy rain it has been misty and drizzly. A bit milder at 7C.
Went for a stroll down to the river in a drier interlude this afternoon. Looking misty and murky up towards Perth and the tiny hint of brightness didn't last. Just missed the swans making a perfect heart shape by a couple of seconds.

January 1

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

my favourite setup is lows attacking from the S/SW with easterly cold air in place, a bit like storm Emma, also happened so many times in 90's

Storm Emma ruined a brilliant convectional Easterly imo tho temporarily good for the SW and particularly SE Ireland .

January 1

1 hour ago, Derecho said:

Steady on.... it's a chilly easterly yes but that is an exaggeration. Remember the February 2021 easterly?

Perhaps there would be a bit more then shown here but SSTs are a bit colder then in December... and you'd need uppers to be a bit colder or a more cyclonic flow to get big amounts from this particular set up.

This is not accurate. Shows no snow in my location but here is what fell in my front garden.

January 1

A sunny but cold New Year's day here with frost and ice lingering in the shade. Max of 2.5C. Took a walk down to the river. The young lady in the first photo was sun worshipping I assume rather than sun bathing at that temp.

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