Norrance

January 12

19 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

-3.5c here at 5pm, up to 4.3C now. It was always forecast to warm up into Saturday, before we head back into the freezer on Sunday.

Still -2C here just now and can still see stars through a haze but milder air not far away I think. Could still make an ice day if you count a max of 0.0C as ok

January 12

7 hours ago, A Winter's Tale said:

At the moment it looks like this cold spell will be closer to Dec 2022 and Feb 2021 than 2009/10. The models are showing a week long cold spell which is a decent length but obviously not as impressive as the two week+ spells in 2010. Since then there haven’t been too many cold spells longer than a week. Here’s a list of spells with 7+ consecutive days of 5c or lower maxima at Glasgow airport: Jan 2011 (7), Jan-Feb 2012 (9), Nov-Dec 2012 (9), Jan 2013 (14), Mar 2013 (8), Jan 2015 (7), Jan-Feb 2015 (7), Jan 2016 (9), Jan 2018 (7), Feb-Mar 2018 (9), Dec 2020-Jan 2021 (13), Jan-Feb 2021 (10), Feb 2021 (8), Dec 2022 (10).

I just wish it was like Feb 2021.Here with 36cms the deepest snow since Dec 2010 (or 2013 on slightly higher ground locally) and the lowest temp since early December 2010. Sadly at least for those south of the Highlands and Grampian it doesn't look likely at least for snowfall. Having said that once the cold is in you never know and after a warmer blip plenty signs that there could be more to come, hopefully some from the East for imby and through the Central belt.

January 12

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Too young to remember 1984 and 1985. 1984 gave significant snow here, over a foot easily, though temp wise was never especially cold. Conversely Jan 85 was largely very cold but not much snow here.

Overall for persistant cold and lots of snow, 1979 best in last 50 years here. Jan 10 came close to beating it but the cold eased latter half.

Interesting to note how since 1979 severe cold and snow has only occured for about 2-3 weeks tops, 1985, 1987, 2010 and 2013.

1984, 1991, 1996, 1997, 2001, 2009, 2021 less 10 day spells or less really.

Interesting that where you were that it was not very cold. We had -20C and numerous ice days despite the cold coming from polar maritime air. It was however a month with a huge differential for snow and cold north to south. From Trevor Harleys records

January. A westerly month, but it was very wintry in the north.The month was very wet: the wettest January since 1948 in England and Wales. Snowy over Scotland and Northern Ireland. A violent gale in the Midlands on the 11th, and another on the 13th gave a gust of 104 mph in the NE England. On the 13th, the north suffered prolonged snow showers and strong winds. There was a destructive tornado in Doncaster on the 14th, and lightning in Leeds. It was very cold in Scotland: there was a minimum of -23.6C at Grantown-on-Spey on the morning of the 20th, and -20.6C at Aviemore, followed by a maximum of only -8C at Tummel Bridge the next day. More snow in the north on the 21st. On the 23rd snow lay 65 cm deep in parts of Scotland, with many places cut off. Snow lay for 30 days of the month at Kindrogan, 20 days at Glasgow and Edinburgh, but only 6 at Manchester , and just one in London. Another tornado, with large hail, hit Teignmouth on the 26th. It was milder than average in the south.

January 12

1984 by a country mile from when I lived in Highland Perthshire. Frequent and heavy falls of snow from mid month with drifting. 2 feet level snow that lasted for four weeks.

From that era 1978 and 1979 were also stand outs. By 1987 I was in Dundee and experienced blizzardy snow at -6 to -7 for a few days with drifting down to sea level so that was memorable too. Since then can't really think of any really severe January spells except perhaps Jan 2013 which had around 45 cms in my home area of Perthsire and similar near me in Dundee but only above 159 mtrs asl. Early Jan 2010 and 1982 were also very snowy.

January 12

3 hours ago, edo said:

I think the depth of cold and the artic source and given how raw it feels already that we will get an above average spell of winter weather particularly a row of ice days for many and very low temps at night particularly over snowfields. I see KW is typing so hopefully some wise perspective incoming.

Max temp here just at edge of Dundee was 0.0C so far today before the cold arrives! Just hope when it does that there is something that will bring precipitation to this part of the country. My daughter up in Aberdeen looks odds on though for at least some snow.

Here after a cloudy morning the sky cleared in the afternoon with a slight WNW breeze. Feeling raw out there.

January 12

53 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

1.9c the minimum at home so still waiting on that first January air frost.

Chillier over at St Andrews/Leuchars, min was -2c and currently 1c.

XCW app is offering me 1cm of snow between now and next Thursday - can I bank that?

We are still under zero now at -0.5C from a min of -3C despite the cloud. No measurable wind though.

edit just checked and up to -0.1C now.

January 12

Dull here too. Temp still just below zero at -0.4C

January 11

2 minutes ago, aggy said:

Right so am I getting this correct

into the freezer next week

then out the freezer for a week

then back into freezer at the turn of the month

been trying to catch up on the mod however it’s very difficult to get past the noise

That would certainly tie in with the Met O long range and is one possibility from several from the models.

January 11

It has been bright but cold here today with frost lingering. Coule be colder next week in some places if this is correct?

January 11

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Not for me it hasn’t..

Yes, this is the newest version on mine mentioning the milder conditions next weekend and different from yesterdays.

January 11

3 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

Yes just nice to look at, couldn't have been drawn better for me If I'd done it myself lol

Think that it looks more like a trough which was moving South but may stall rather than a streamer bringing in a succession of showers from the North Sea. Anyway getting a wee bit imby so we shall leave it here please.

January 11

Just now, Drifter said:

Could we get a definitive reason why? Everyone wants to read it and it’s helpful to see how Met Office viewing the current output.

Because it derails this thread which is for model discussion. Please use the contact the team thread if you wish to discuss further as this is also derailing this thread. Thanks.

January 11

Please use the Met O thread to discuss their updates. Any more will be removed.
Also remember to use the regional threads for will it snow in x? type posts and reminiscences of previous falls.

Thanks

January 11

The wind has backed a bit more toward the North so the gloom that has been with us here for the last few days has lifted leaving us with a sunny and frosty morning. Looking East though the cloud is not too far away. Temp has gone up a couple of degrees since breakfast and is now 1C.

edit that should have read backed to the North.

January 10

5 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

Can you send the link plesse

It has been updated on the Met office thread.
Please go there to read it and discuss. Thanks

January 10

Remember that there is a thread for Met and BBC forecasts etc. Plese use it or posts will go missing.

Ta.

January 10

Yep, gfs has joined the party big style. Just for fun

January 10

11 hours ago, thebigyin said:

With the GFS op "different", and many of its ensembles bouncing about, and generally being warmer than ideal later in run, reading above then if op gets something different (maybe wrong, hopefully!) Is same difference/error across all ensembles to an extent? Or if we see another (I.e like a few years back where ECM was right and GFS stayed stubbornly different until just a few dsys until coldbreak occurred) correction towards other models do fundamentals in all ensembles change too.?

Very messy questions, apologies if makes no sense or daft!

The only worry is that it is consistently wrong. Certainly all looking good next week for the Highlands and Grampian with some potential elsewhere even on the gfs which could give a snowmaker to Southern/Central Scotland later in the week.

edit. Just looked again and ecm has moved potential snow further North later in the week. Gfs just not a clue.

January 9

35 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

It hammered down at times here tbf but just wouldn't settle

Probably the wet bulb temperature not being low enough.

January 9

4 hours ago, Norrance said:

Out at the Palace of Versailles.

Meanwhile here it is milder and cloudy but so far dry today. 3.8C

Following on from this she has missed her plane home and is stuck at least until tomorrow as on the way back through Paris her boyfriend wanted to stop and take a photo of the Eiffel tower in the snow so missed bus link to the airport and next one was held up by traffic. He is from Boat of Garten so you would think that he has seen enough snow scenes and likely to see more next week!

edit. To make matters worse the snow had melted around the tower by the time they got there.

January 9

50 minutes ago, Halfamilefromnowhere said:

Magical, and good covering at my folks in Normandy first for a few years

Out at the Palace of Versailles.

Meanwhile here it is milder and cloudy but so far dry today. 3.8C

January 9

Cloudier and milder than of late here this morning. 2C

Meanwhile my youngest is in Paris right now and woke up to this

January 8

Damp, cold and miserable sums up this afternoons weather. 0.8C with drizzle. I really do dislike it when it is raining at a surface temperature that could be snow

January 8

Some light showers here. Temp has just risen to 0.8C from 0.0C at lunchtime so air aloft must be warmer as definitely of rain and the frost has gone.

January 8

45 minutes ago, Halfamilefromnowhere said:

Thick freezing fog coupled with hard frost at minus 5.2, off out in the van to get stocked up ahead of next week. Sleet falling in Normandy too.

My youngest in Paris with her boyfriend and said it was snowing lightly there this morning. Heavier stuff for tomorrow forecast.

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