Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Paul_1978

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,454

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Paul_1978

    The North Of England Regional Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    Checked Met Office radar forecast last night and expected heavy rain over Wakefield as the yellow area was over us from 4.00am.

    As of 8.10am, and I'm stood at the bus stop writing this, the rain is very light, no need to have my hood up. And according to latest radar, intense rain not to reach us til late morning now, then to persist for 24 hours. We shall see....

    The North Of England Regional Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    I've not posted on here for a while, but this has got to be the most heaviest and persistent rain since the floods of August 2007.

    I'm in Wakefield and it's been raining since this morning, but it's been absolutely lashing it down since about 5pm, and it's now 8.35pm.

    Pretty amazing stuff for June. What happened to the summer????

    Model Discussion Thread - January 13th

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Anyone remember if we have had a stand-off like this before? It's been 2 days+ now & in my years here I don't recall it. I keep expecting that one of the big 2 will suddenly collapse but so far it hasn't happened. I suppose the first major blink may have come in the GFS ensembles tonight, although ECM may have just fluttered a little in it's ensembles earlier. You'd normally say we'd have a clearer picture tomorrow, but who knows at the moment?

    I'm sure I remember a similar situation last winter where the ECM was proposing a cold solution and the GFS wasn't, and it got to something like T+144 or even T+120 and the ECM just abandoned the idea overnight. Hopefully we won't get that this time. Can anyone recall the scenario I'm thinking of?

    Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    What always baffles me about this thread is that most people hunt for deep cold charts yet what most of them seem to want is snow. A cold easterly is uselss 9 times out of 10. What the ECM but more especialy the GFS shows is lows coming from the west with PM air mixed in (cool zonality) if the lows can get far enough south then this can deliover the best synoptics for snow in the UK. OK fair enough if you live on low ground in the south it will be transient affairs but further north and over higher ground it can give a pasting.

    I may have rose tinted glasses here because I will be at Cairngorm between 19th and 23rd. Here are a few snapshots of the 06z GFS to illastrate my point

    Good point Tim. Would I be right i thinking that the heavy snow of Jan 1984 came from a north-westerly set up. And were there any similarities then to what we are seeing now?

    Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    And the Ecm has shown something very interesting by T+216 onwards with a pattern change, I love how the T+240 chart finally squashes that high to the south and it pops up again but much further to the southwest. The Gfs 12z op run is flat mild zonal but also attemps a change at the T+240 range but soon defaults back to the familiar pattern. All my hopes are pinned on the ecm being right and the gfs jumping onboard in the next few days.

    The "block" in the Atlantic looks narrow though, and probably what you might call flimsy. Surely the secondary depression to the left would just smash through this and take us back to square one?

    Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    It might be FI Paul, but when was the last time we saw GFS produce a different evolution from T+180hrs? At least this time last week they were toying with greater amplification and some

    cold shots in the pre Xmas week, but across the last 20 or so runs they have been very consistent and as I said previously, if they had been modelling bitter cold for Xmas in the same way

    this forum would be in overdrive.

    (I was just correcting Tinybill's constant use of the term F1 instead of FI). ;-)

    Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    In terms of people wanting to see some colder conditions I'm still happy to stick to my thoughts of yesterday evening, any cold is likely to come from the east and again because of the tendency for the PV to elongate and a developing trend to start building the SIberian high further west then I wouldn't be surprised to see an easterly before we move into 2012.

    Well it will be certaintly hats off to you Nick if we get an easterly, as it's only 3 weeks til the end of the year, and no signs in the models just yet (to the untrained eye). I have to say though I'm enjoying this very active weather at the mo, and an easterly will no doubt be much more calmer and colder, but possibly less interesting. Still, looking forward to some decent snowy spells (fingers crossed), however they arrive.

    Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I have been looking at the world pressure charts on WeatherOnline. These give a wider picture than just looking at the Europe view.

    In summary, too much high pressure to the south, and not enough to the north. I'm only an amateur model watcher, but that basically says to me we are in for a predominantly westerly regime, with perhaps the odd north westerly spell. Something drastic needs to happen to counter this set up, and that's where I look at the posts of the more knowledgable.

    Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A flat jet, strong Euro high and low heights to the north, as far removed from cold as you could possibly find.

    It looks like the worst start to the new skiing season for decades to top off the worst end to the previous season since records began.

    The problem with these set ups is even though the FI may suggest some PM air getting south, this is unlikely to verify, its a model bias with nearer term output shunting the jet north and developing shortwaves near Iceland.

    Either some amplification appears or I fear alot of doom and gloom in here over the next few weeks.

    Hi Nick, I've seen you mention the word "amplification" a few times recently. Can you explain what that is and how it could affect the weather in favour of colder conditions? Many thanks!

    Forum Upgrade

    in News & Announcements

    Posted · Edited by Paul_1978

    The reinstatement of page numbers to the forums on the mobile site is a relief. However how do I know which page I am on? If it says 1 2 3 4 5 etc at the top, all the boxes look the same. It would be useful if the page number you were on was in bold or a different colour.

    Ex Ts Katia In The UK - Chat Thread 3

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    As someone pointed out at work today, the guy who was killed worked as a volunteer bus driver for the local Butterwick Hospice in Bishop Auckland. His duties included collecting donations of stuff for the hospice from local companies. He has collected from my company and I think i'd spoken to him before in the past. Thoughts are with his family.

    Please spare a though when craving destruction from weather events that some people lose their lives tragically because of them. Forecasters are only trying to prevent this happening by giving warnings that some may see as excessive. If that upsets you, then that's just sad. :-(

    Very good post. We all love the weather, and often the extremes, but when it costs lives then the enjoyment of the weather is curtailed. R.I.P.
×
×
  • Create New...