Paul_1978
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Posts posted by Paul_1978
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The latest GFS run keeps the cold going into the new year, and the last few runs have gone off the idea of bringing back in the Atlantic and south west winds.
This is a good trend if you like cold, however the Met Office long range updates appear to be a bit of a spanner, as despite recent output, they are hinting at a return to more normal conditions in January.
Whilst these aspects are at odds with each other, we will need to keep an eye on them to see which way things will go.
As it happens I think the Met Office LRFs have been pretty good this year. As ever with the GFS, many more runs are needed to see which way things might go, but the early signs are promising.
My gut feeling unfortunately is to accept what the Met Office are saying and that things will inevitably turn milder as we head into the new year :-(
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That chart from 27th Nov 1925 doesn't look too dissimilar to what we're going to see later this week.
The first week of November 1925 was very mild with low pressure anchored to the west of the UK and high pressure to the east. The pressure pattern flipped around the 8th and this heralded a prolonged cold spell with very short mild interludes that was to last up to Christmas 1925.
After the first week, November was largely a dry month with frequent frosts and fogs until the last week when repeated blasts of Arctic air flooded the UK bringing severe frosts and snowfalls in places.
Snowfall depths
Hull: 6 inches
Norwich: 7 inches
Scarborough: 10 inches
During the first week of December, high pressure came to dominate with severe frosts. -11.1C at Eskdalemuir
This high pressure slipped away to the east allowing an Atlantic system to move in from the west with the first real mild spell for a month. The rapid thaw (13.3C at Valentia) caused flooding in NE Yorkshire.
The mild spell was short as another Arctic outbreak occurred mid-month with frosts and snowfalls. (13th-15th)
In the week leading up to Christmas, low pressure held sway with rain and snow in places, depths of snowfall approached 18 inches in the north.
Christmas Day itself was very cold, -7.2C as a maximum at Eskdalemuir, falling snow was reported in places.
The week after Christmas heraled a dramatic change in the weather with exceptionally mild SWly winds flooding the country with the warmest spell for over 7 weeks. 16C being reported during this spell
9th November -25th December 1925 CET: 1.5C (cf. 9th November - 25th December 1994 CET: 8.0C)
9th November -7th December 1925 CET: 1.1C
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Great to see a stunning ECM run ends on a high!
Yep - it's not often you see the winds blowing from east to west all the way across the Atlantic!
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The lesson on here that no one seems to learn is that looking at charts after T+144 should be taken with a pinch of salt much of the time. How many times have we seen people posting charts at T+200/T+300 that are never likely to come off.
I don't post regularly but as a model follower, many would be advised never to get excited about anything after T+144. I know FI changes, but I have always found T+144 to be the general cut off point for reliability.
Whilst I am disappointed about losing the easterly, I am not absolutely gutted becuase for me it was never in a reliable time frame in any way, shape or form. Having said that, there's time yet for a turnaround....but don't look past T+144!
Regards to all,
Paul
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At 2pm in Stanley (Wakefield) the snow measured 5.5 inches.
The current temperature (2.25pm) is 0.5C
All the best!
Paul
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Att 11.00am there were 4 and a quarter inches of lying snow in Stanley in Wakefield. Current temp is 1.1C - it's been at 1.0C for the last hour. At 8.00am it was 0C bang on.
Still snowing reasonably large flakes. Met Office last few hours of rader runs appears to show the precipitation not moving very far at all - in fact it's pretty much stuck!
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I don't know if it's just me but I can't see the snow (in W. Yorkshire) being as bad as the models suggest.
On Tuesday there are only two bands of very narrow precipitation on the projected radar. Will this really leave more than 5cm?
And after that I can't really see anything on Weds/Thurs at all, but the warnings are there. I can't understand the warnings and the excitement but I must be missing something.
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Looks fantastic. Is this from the 18z?
If you look at the bottom right of the charts, it says "Sun 18", therfore it's Sunday's 18z. Thus 00, 06, 12 etc along with the day of the week shows the run.
Hope this helps, Paul
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F1 F1
F1? :lol: How long have you been here?
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Here is what GFS 06z last Sunday was predicting for this Sunday
Here is the reality
And there is one reason why I try never to look more than 7 days ahead on the GFS! Everyone should take note!
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fax charts go with ukmo unfortunately.the angle of attack looks poor,little snow for Eng and wales going by the 528 dam line which is being pushed well into Scotland at 120h
Not on the 120 FAX I'm looking at. The 528 DAM line goes right across the south cost of England:
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Snowing steadily in Stanley in Wakefield and settling nicely. Temp outside currently -0.4C
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Just seen the forecast, 5-10cm expected with upto 20cm in places. western parts of north/west/south yorkshire should be highest risk in our region... Lets hope we catch up on what they have in the east
And a huge window for snow showers, 9am this morning till 3pm tommorow.
Which forecast? The Met Office website is not showing any snow at all for today....well just showers, and certainly no warnings.
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I live in north Wakefield. At approx 7pm, the pressure dropped from 1013Mb to 998Mb in about an hour. The temp rose to 1.5C from 0.5C and it rained heavily.
Pressure is still at 998 now (00:25) and the temp is -0.5C. There has been a recent light snow shower which has covered the roads, but all in all we've not got very much here at all.
The main issue is now the rain/melt that has now frozen. We've just got back in from a night out and the roads are trecherous, and it's not deep snow causing the problems...Thin snow and ice.
Hope the rest of you are enjoying your whiteouts, because we've pretty much missed it really
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according to 12z charts it will be snowing from 9pm till 12am!!!
That's only 3 hours -
Temp in my garden in Wakefield is currently 2.5C and it's sunny. But I see the Met Office have put out a flash warning for West Yorks now.
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Reading this topic is an extraordinary experience, particularly at times like this. I have only a limited ability to read the models so look to this topic for guidance, and tonight I appear to have been told the following:
1. big freeze still on
2. big freeze might be on
3. big freeze not as big as first thought but still quite big
4. big freeze now "downgraded" to "even larger teapot big freeze", ie not much of a freeze at all
5. cold snap
6. cold snap-ette
7. cold up north but not down south
8. cold down south but not up north
9. ECWMF is the most reliable model
10. ECMWF model is not to be trusted tonight
11. ECMWF is not be trusted in this set up, whether tonight or not
12. GFS is not to be trusted in blocking set ups
13. GFS has been consistent and therefore is to be trusted (nothwithstanding 12)
14. It will get cold shortly
15. ECMWF data is missing tonight according to our new friend from Holland
16. Our new friend from Holland is clearly on the money (although we are all asking each other whether we know if he/she is right or not)
Is it any wonder we are probably all a little frazzled.....
When I was at secondary school second year in 1978 I used to sell weather forecasts to my class mates for 5p. I based them on a presusre chart in the daily paper and by looking out of the window of the science lab towards the West. Surprisingly I had a few sales. Most often I was roughly right but living then near the Severn estuary it was pretty reliable to say it was about to rain. My approach would have been useless in this current scenario so please let's have some measured and considered views (that I can nick and sell on at 2009 prices). Thanks.
AS
Now that is the post of the week. I too am a lurker on these threads, and you get to know which members appear to know what they're talking about and which don't. That's after filtering through all the one-liners of course!
You have summed up exactly how I, and most probably many others feel about what they are reading. It is most confusing sometimes and the info coming out from board members is very different.
However that's the beauty of these boards I suppose, and people have different levels of expertise and different opinions of what's good and what isn't.
I expect us lurkers (and regular posters for that matter) will have to make informed decisions based on what we can best make sense of.
For what it's worth, I'm enjoying the anticipation, and like most others, I'm hoping it doesn't all go t1ts ups. And I may well join many members in bashing one off if we get a sustained wintry and snowy spell
Cheers!
Paul
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Thought I'd bump this as they are due to update with their first full winter forecast any time now (well they did say September!)
I've been checking every day for 3 weeks too!
You know what they'll say, warmer, colder, wetter and drier than average - and we'll all be none the wiser!
Mind you last year's winter forecast went completely out of the window!
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Warnings have been updated for Thurs/Fri, but unfortunately for me, my area (Yorkshire & Humber) is no longer included and is shaded green. I want orange or red shading for my area!
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Snowing moderately in Wakefield city centre (only just over 100ft above sea level), but not settling.
(14:38hrs)
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The lastest Met Office long range winter forecast has just been issued:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2008_9/
I have to say this is the most vague forecast I have ever seen. They are not giving much away, so maybe they are not too sure themselves.
For cold lovers, I feel the signs are promising as they say that January will be "below average" and February "near average", although precipitation will be "below average".
All the best
Paul
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Hi all, thought you might like to see this set I have just come across on Flickr - some great pics!
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A recall a heavy snowfall in West Yorkshire when I picked up my first ever set of wheels (Mk2 Fiesta!).
It was either November 1995 or November 1996. If I was to bet on it I would say November 1995.
Be interesting to see the synoptics of that day.
We had about 2 or three inches in Bradford.
That's only 3 hours
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Posted · Edited by Paul_1978
Hi, I am more a "lurker" on the forum, but come here regularly and also look on my phone quite a lot.
Just wanted to add a note to say I am also having the same problem on the mobile version where I can't skip to a particular page number, or to the end of the thread.
Also, did it used to say "member since" on the left hand side in the profile details?
I hope this is sorted soon as it's quite frustrating. Keep up the good work guys and gals!