[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Most recent op and mean.

No…both are 00z Mean, both 6hr accum precipitation, one for 1pm, one for 7pm.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Modelling appears to have vastly underestimated this mornings convective shower streamer across the SE (all rain currently) which might bode well for tomorrow, wouldn't surprise me if one or two spots saw a bit of a surprise tomorrow morning!

Longer range modelling is good this morning, MOGREPS/NAEFS remain cold, GFS is okay and ECM is an improvement. I think we've lost a real solid Greenland high overall now so we're going to have to hope we see a decent wedge of heights instead & that still seems likely for the time being.

I agree - I pointed out yesterday that sea temps are near record highs, so the convective energy is much more than usual.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

ICON shows mostly light snow pushing south west through the Thames Estuary during Monday, this becomes more widespread during Monday night as the winds veer more easterly and the atmosphere is a little more unstable, and it is this period where a dusting could anywhere south of the Wash (Very little will settle during the day unless the precipitation is heavier). 

Sea temperature is 9.1 deg, close to the Jan high of 9.5, and well above the Jan average of 7.8, which could lead to a lot of convection for streamers.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Monday sees a quite stiff wind coming off the North Sea and a big delta between sea and air temperatures, which can give decent snowfall from Kent or Thames Streamers, depending upon the ultimate wind direction.

Worth keeping a close eye on the Fax evolution to see if this emerges.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Moderate snow in Hawkhurst, Kent. 236 asl. Currently -0.1c.

Even the dog is lamppost watching…

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just changed to snow here...coming down consistently.

 

 

 

 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

1 minute ago, Malarky said:

Dead in here! Thoughts on the pub?

With apologies to the mods...

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Stunning afternoon in central London with some hints of warmth from the strengthening sun. 

Next week is going to be a real shock to the system for the average joe!

Talking of which.. WOW - Sunday's event could result in some historic snowfall across parts of Essex & Kent if conditions are right.

Errr...that purple bit goes right over my house...!

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

8 minutes ago, offerman said:

Sorry for daft question. 
But  why is the UKMO met office charts in French ? 
Do they pay the French for the data? 
Who produces the ECM European Central model ? 
Thanks and apologies again as I genuinely don’t know ! 

He’s viewing the charts on Meteociel.fr which is a French site.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Jan 2021 onwards]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

lol good stuff

have you set it up yet- got app & connected to home WIFI but cant get station ID to add to app connection

Yes....took me a few attempts, though...needed to update the firmware, then start again. With a bit of patience the station ID turned up in the Device list!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Jan 2021 onwards]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

New crimbo present showing up my outdated & over temp sensor !!!

Plus finally I get a dewpoint reading

Still calibrating !

I got the same Xmas present!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

22 minutes ago, jright35 said:

I believe for a Thames streamer we would need a NE wind direction.

I think NE is a Kent Streamer and E is a Thames Streamer.

The point of a streamer is that the wind picks up convection from the warm sea over a decent distance and then dumps it as snow further downwind.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

In my view the SE has the potential for quite a lot of snow Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

The models have been consistent with SEly winds and the upper temps and dew points are sufficient and improving run by run.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Mr.B said:

I know the weather apps (TWC, BBC & MetO) are renowned to be crap but none of them have any snow for my location next week. I keep looking for them to update but everyday nothing. Are they all wrong? I know they all use data in their apps that we have access to. Why don’t they see what we are seeing? 

They use historic runs, and the models are upgrading the forecasts at the moment.

This should cheer you up;

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

Example chart from NMM;

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

There is real potential for a Kent Streamer on Monday in my view.

Uppers are just about cold enough, sea is warm, winds decent.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

5 minutes ago, dallas said:

Paul from the team (site development) has just posted something nice in the MOD thread

Only if you like sleet...!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

Then back for a second bite;

 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

GFS still has most of Kent covered;

 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

A real model battle underway. ECM sees it too far south (BBC use this for their forecast) whereas the GFS and ICON have it right over Sussex and Kent.

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

8 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I can’t find the Uk/ SE view for  the harmonie on meteociel perhaps I’m being dense , can anyone help please ? 

Try this;

weather model knmi - harmonie-arome model - england - rain/snowfall [base + 48] | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

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Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology...

As it is a short term model, the interesting period is not yet in range.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

1.5c here and falling

dewpoint 0.3c

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

Interesting FAX for tomorrow;

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

4 minutes ago, Anti-Mild said:

I wish I could be comfortable with dismissing the MetO's forecasted HP for January, but it wouldn't be the first time they stuck to their guns and came out looking like forecasting wizards.

Well, it's either low or high, so they'll be right some of the time by the law of averages...!

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

18 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Obviously attention is focused further out, but there still could be a few little bonus surprises at selected spots in the east on xmas morning:

 

I agree. Keeping a close eye on this one. Here is the Euro4;