loafer
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Posts posted by loafer
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Thank you Steve - your input and analysis is one of the key reasons this is my weather site of choice.
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Well this seems the place for a little anecdote...
Over the weekend I was chatting to a guy at a school fair. He has just moved to the country and discovered an enormous bees nest behind some outbuildings.
He called in the bee expert who is arranging to take them away, but also said that the bees were building a hive suitable for a very cold winter...
...make of that what you will! Definitely more accurate than the CFS!
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The comments below the Guardian article are interesting and worth reading.
It is also completely contrary to the IPCC report which says there is little or no evidence of any increase in extreme weather events.
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I don't think a northerly movement of 7cm a year is going to add much natural climate change.
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But we are not looking at streamers.
The lows crossing NW - SE will bring the precipitation.
You will not get a Thames streamer etc initially from this set up as -5c uppers will not generate strong convection.
I am confused by this statement. In order for a Thames Streamer or Kent Streamer to deliver snow, on a broad brush basis, uppers need to be -5 or below.
Are you implying from your statement that colder upper temperatures will deliver greater convection, or have you twisted yourself into a knot by implying temperatures would need to be warmer than -5, in which case precipitation would not be snow, and a Thames or Kent Streamer could not exist...?
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Just back from Finland where it was -15 last night, but even the Finns had got fed up with mild wet, dank weather and were celebrating the first clear, cold and snowy weather of the winter. It's the first time I have seen one smile!
So if the cold is working it's way West, it has a way to go, but has finally started....
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HelloCorrect me if I'm wrong as I'm a bit of a newbie/learner. But shouldn't we be taking the models that have been inconsistent with a pinch of salt (aka ukmo).from what I've seen gem has lead the way on this.
At the risk of being a bit profound, an inconsistent model is only inconsistent until the other models join it!
The best approach, as the more experienced posters have said, it to stand back from the detail and look at the trends.
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Just cleared a tree blocking the country road outside my house with the help of a passing motorist.
Very wet and gusty enough to get me running back for clear ground afterwards!
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You said the South East, hence my post illustrating that wasn't a universal view.I did nothing of note "here" - ie my locality in Essex - just seems a wet and windy day so far
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In order to get home from the station in Kent I was diverted four times due to roads closed for floods, crashes and fallen trees, drove through five floods in my Jeep and drove under one fallen tree. 7 miles took me 40 minutes.nothing of note here in the S-East at the moment windy day yes - but nothing much more-a few twigs down off the trees
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I agree with you, but by referring to short term* weather in Australia you are falling into the same trap.
*in a climate context
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The whopping climate change footprint of two Australian coalmining projects
Two Queensland mines would emit triple the greenhouse gas emissions of the Keystone XL pipeline, or six times the UK's annual footprint
I was listening to Radio 4 this morning and they were talking about how China will hit it's CO2 targets. I wonder if these projects which are essentially offshored Chinese suppliers, are taken into account in those calculations.
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Unlikely, but use raildar.co.uk which has a direct feed from Network Rail and is far more informative than others.Has anyone got any idea if they are running trains to Burgess Hill from Brighton ? I can't get any info from Network Rail only to say they are not running trains until 9 am ...erm I think I just answered my own question...la la laaa
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I know Newhaven well, too. You are correct, I have heard from someone on site that it was right next to the breakwater which meant he couldn't be reached when he got into difficulty. Very sad indeed.I know Newhaven well and unfortunately the kids play chicken etc on the breakwater there. It is actually closed to the public but a little too easy for get on. You can't see the waves coming and it is a very dangerous place to be.
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Indeed - perhaps a lack of energy in the system as a result of a quiet sun in sunspot terms is contributing?
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Very interesting...the London Evening Standard has a tiny "in brief" paragraph on page 4, and that's it. Did the boy cry wolf too often?
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And you think the Posh Boys (whose very existence is only maintained by the dividends they get from multinationals) would want to fund a branch of science that can only threaten that existence?
I have no idea what you are arguing.
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Because it wouldn't be in their interests. Just like green charities.
The government money going into climate research, by contrast, is our money and should be objective.
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I don't think they are. The complaint is that the science is biased because the money goes to those who are more likely to come up with the answer the funder wants to hear...
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Very interesting. I wonder what the latent capacity for heat absorption there is taking into account this affect?
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37 month rolling average is a rather curious metric...any idea why they use this duration?
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It is a problem on both threads, tbh, but I think the mods do a good job walking the tightrope between promoting open discussion and preventing open warfare.
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Meto Uk Further Outlook
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Not so much a forecast as a statistical average, really.