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loafer

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    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

    Morning guys, sorry to interrupt :) I am not quite expert like most of you guys on reading charts. Do we still have a chance for snow in Brighton? Some people are complaining about changing picture ???

    The key to snow is cold, at the risk of stating the obvious.

    All of the models show deep cold coming in very early next week and, for example upper temps of -10 over  Brighton. Compare that to -5 being a reasonable indicative threshold for snow amongst other indicators, and you can see the conditions are good.

    Next step required is precipitation and with easterlies this isn’t big masses of cloud like you see with storms coming over the Atlantic, but is convective showers where moisture is sucked up by winds passing over the sea and wet ground. This is where the snow is likely to come from and is looking hopeful.

    Only when we are 24-48 hours away will anyone have a cogent view on snow forecasting.

    • Like 2

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, drgl said:

    I'll eat my hat if what actually happens is anything like what the computer models are showing. Been here many times, this place goes into meltdown and zip actually happens. Hope I am wrong but until the event actually starts feet firmly on the ground. The forecasts back on December 8th were incorrect, forecasting heavy snow when we had none and vice versa. Comparing these fantasy charts to the likes 0f 47, 63 , 87 etc is just bonkers. Hope I'm wrong and will need to get the shovel out again next week but somehow doubt it......

    Quoted for future use...!

    More seriously, the difference this time is the consistency with the models. Normally we have one outlier calling it diffferently and the models converge on a tepid compromise. This time they all think it’s going to be Baltic.

    SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->

    in Regional

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

    I think now is about as bad as it's going to get. Local gritters said they wouldn't go out until the snow had stopped, so expect them to be heavily busy overnight, with roads clear for rush hour tomorrow. Someone somewhere has actually been using their brain ....

    Not sure about that. I went around the southern M25 at about 4pm and all the signs said "Salt Spreading", which, given the rivers of water on the road, was the very definition of futility.

    • Like 1
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