frozen_north
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Posts posted by frozen_north
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FN - I think there is something wrong with last February's images, take a look at the 1st and the 28th, they are exactly the same!
I didnt notice that but when I look at it more. Thes the same amount of ice between the 31st of January and the 11th of May. I dont know why that has happened because the snow cover is correct.
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Yes the ice isnt doing that bad this year even though it is still way below average. It was probably helped by the lack of hurricanes pumping heat into the artic.
The difference is all too apparent.
Compare 2006
to 2007
The main differences are St Lawrence, Barents sea where there was next to nothing last year coampeared to this year and the sea of Othotsk. Hopefully the ice will survive much better than it did compared to last year where it just managed to be more than 2005's record sea ice minimum.
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There is a dusting of snow in Edinburgh but none in Glasgow which is expected.
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-5C already in Glasgow, gonna be pretty cold by dawn.
Its pretty cold now. But I dont think it will get much colder by dawn. At most 2C colder.
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It could be worse, you could live in Glasgow where it gets warmer as the night goes on under a clear sky or not. It was -£C earlier on but has risen to -2C.
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The ramping is getting out of control on here. I wouldnt pay much attention to the percipitation charts just yet as they are going to change alot over the coming week. But one things likely, some cold weather for us.
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Not not long till the cold front passes here. Currently a tropical 7C.
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The sypnotic comparisons to 47, 79 and the 80s are for once valid (a look at the archive charts can verify this for any doubters).
My only concern relates to how these sypnotics will pan out in 2007.
For example, in the eighties usually an 850 isotherm of around -5C or -6C aloft was pretty much guaranteed to deliver an event - today that is on the worse side of marginal with even -7C and -8C 850s often accompanying cold rain.
So maybe our snowless problem is twofold these days
1) We dont get the right set ups as often
2) When we do it has to be super cold because they don't deliver at the same temp as they used to
I'd love to be proved wrong (not least to reign in some of the GW rampers) however I don't hold out much hope for my own Central London location
Well you seem to have forgotten the snow that we had up here before the cold snap down south had pretty strange conditions. The 850 isotherm was around -1 or -2 and there was no 528dam line. But yet we still got snow.
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The Nogaps run always provides laughs as it is always wrong even 96h ahead. If the 18z run is the pub run the no gaps model lives in the pub.
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Cold front passed about an hour ago. Temps dropping, the wind easing off and the sky clearing.
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I think we should raise the SATSIG Level to 5 for the first time of the season. Ramp mania has hit the model outout discussion.
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The same reason its mild in the states is the same reason its so mild over here in Europe as well. Due to the redicolously high AO currently +4, all the cold is locked up in the Artic. Its not till the AO drops back to Neutral or Negative figures will lower latitudes see any cold weather.
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Yeah the snow does look nice. I never had the chance to go up North yesterday but driving between Stirling and Perth you could see the mountains covered in snow from about 600m up. It just looks so nice. Shame that quite a bit will be lost with the heavy rains. Oh well.
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Its a nice mountain that but I never knew it was so tall 1000+m. I though it was more 900m after going past it.
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We have had showers throughout the day.
There was a short time snow/sleet shower.
Current weather
Temperature 2.5C
Percipitation Rain shower
Cloud 8 oktas
Wind Light NW
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I'm sure it was colder down in the valley than at the top of the mountain. No wonder it baffled them.
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This place is pretty much dead compared to last year. SATSIGs has remained dormant for the whole of December with really only 2 or 3 proper rampers.
Although ramping does get annoying eventually it gives this place some life. Otherwise its too depressing like right now.
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Too bad some of that snow is going to melt over this coming week. Hopefully there will still be some left and we will get some NW to bring some more snow. The worst scenario for the Scottish Ski industry would be this mild spell followed by raging SW.
It looks good up there. I'm just amazed at how the Cairngorm has had better skiing than most of Europe.
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carinthian, how are things at the frozen pole now in your opinion?
I've had a brief glance at the latest charts; total NH ice area now close to average. There must be some serious, I mean, serious, cold there because many areas have positive ice gains! (Compared to last year).
Kara sea - big positive anomaly.
Laptev sea - big positive anomaly.
Barents sea - significant positive anomaly.
Greenland sea - significant positive anomaly.
Baffin/Newfoundland - significant positive anomaly.
Arctic basin - significant positive anomaly
East Siberian - no anomaly.
Beaufort Sea - no anomaly.
Canadian archipeligo - no anomaly.
Hudson Bay - no anomaly.
Chukchi sea - massive negative anomaly (currently icing over accounting for most recent gains?)
Overall: amazing cold! How high will it go?
Perhaps Europe has taken a hit for the arctic. Lots of cold air up there now... some point it will have to give you would think.
I dont understand where these massive positive anomolies are. I looked hard at every one and one are even way above average. Some are close to average but many are still way below average.
Hudson bay looks to be freezing over nicely now. Lets see if it can beat last year where it took till 26th December to freeze over. Theres only the east of it to go now.
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Its good to see Hudson Bay starting to come on. You should see the sea ice indicator on the graph head up vertically over the next couple of days as their is a slight lag time between the charts and the graph. Expect us to catch up with last year soon.
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It may be just a dusting but that is at about 2000ft. The main snow line in the Highlands right now is about 3000ft from my own observations today. Ben Lomond looks good with snow on it.
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Amazing pictures there. The joys of a continental climate. Hot summers and the chance of heavy snow storms in the winter where the snow lasts more than 1 day.
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Well with the cold set to return to round about Svalbard the ice should start to grow again. The ice in Hudson bay is starting to grow rapidly due to the cold pooling over Canada right now. It looks like the ice pack is going to wxpand rapidly over the next month.
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The only bad thing is that the recent thaw has melted most of the snow. Heres to plenty of snow this winter.
Carinthians latest Arctic reports
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Artic ice has reached 14 million square km (about 5 days ago) which is more than 2005's peak at about 13.75 million square km. I still think the ice could grow to around 14.5 million square km as the peak is around 3 weeks away, before the melt starts.