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snowdrifter

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    North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    The Great 2021 BFTE Snow Depth Prediction

     

    Frosty the Snowman - Blackburn 15cm

    Andypvfc - Cheshire 2cm

    iand61 Bacup - 10-30cm

    Snow Free Zone - 0cm

    Joe Snow - Sandbach 4cm

    Slidergate 17 Sale 2cm

    Winter Hill - Horwich - 10cm

    Chicken Soup - Blackburn - dusting 

    William Glossop - 15cm

    Osca31 - Brigrigg Cumbria- 1cm

    Robbo - Hattersley - 8cm

    Cheshire Snow - Northwich - 12cm

    Chris78 - Preston - 1cm

    Raul_sbd - Sale - 3cm

    Thundersnow - Carlisle - 0.5 cm

    Dy 10 - 5cm - Wirral 

    SnowWatcher2 - High Crompton - 8cm

    Face Like Thunder - Crewe - 0cm

    Fellmike - Crewe - 2cm

    ManchesterSunset - Stockport - 5cm

    Swainclubber - Littleborough - 7cm

    Mark Blackpool 2cm

    Had Worse - Glossop - 19.05cm

    Kasim - Buxton - 16cm

    Hailseizertoo - Wavertree - 6cm

    Dkeane3 - South Manchester - 3cm

    JamesM - Saddleworth- 12cm

    Jam2010 - north Manchester 4.5 cm

    Captaincroc - Halmer End - 14cm

    Mark88 - Merseyside- 0cm

    Shaun L - Wallasey - 3cm

    toccylad - Mossley Hill - 0cm

    Snowmad79 - Sholver - 30cm

    Fell Mike - Crewe - 15cm

    Ramp - Newhey - 14cm

    Weather History - Irlam - 0.5cm

    Crewe Cold 1c

    Miamay Liverpool 0cm

    Dodge - Oldham - 4cm

    Loubie_4 - Maghull - 4cm

    Dexter - Northwich 2cm

    Cumbria Marra 0cm

    SP1986 - Heswall -0

     

     

    Deadline 5pm Thursday 

     

    £5 to the Winner for a fish Supper! 

     

    Final measurements on concrete 5pm Wednesday, allow for drifting - best guess. 

    I'm predicting a lucky 0.5cm here. (perhaps a decent breakdown snowfall but that's for another day)

    North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

     

    This feature keeps popping up shooting the precip right across the country out into the Irish Sea above Liverpool on various models, over the past few days. Presumably some sort of organised trough is shifting westwards to enable that. These areas probably want to keep a close eye on development of this feature, as should it come off you are looking at very significant snowfall.

     

    I think the day it's actually shifted between Sun and Mon but beyond that it's been consistent across different runs. The areas between the red bars here seem highly likely to affected, Cumbria would be feeding off general easterly precipitation anyway, so I wouldn't worry about not being included in this. 

    image.thumb.png.290efea7d56d131a5fd1a4f0c25ec1e6.png

    Hope your'e right, I'll take that - bang in the middle of that...

    North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, chris78 said:

    Thats right, I keep seeing how easterlies can deliver snow to our region, very true, but not for Preston!   Having said that i actually like a really cold spell, if we get ice days and some super cold nights ill e pretty happy.     (while trying to ignore the snow everyone else is getting!)

    Same here Chris, though I see a snowless chill as wasted cold. Simply too far west.

    IMG_20210203_135532.jpg

    • Like 1

    North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Shades of Feb 1996' for the NW with the current output - elevation, uppers and frontal / streamer alignment appear in the favour of many eastern areas (e.g. E Cumbria pummelled), but sizeable amounts (few inches) for East Manchester, Lancashire >100m) > This for circa 120H. Remember the most important factors in a convective easterly for us are high wind strength & lower heights. These both appear conducive for the above ATM unless we see last minute changes --

    E.g. Winds adequately strong for westwards progression of notable showers up to say M6 corridor on ECM12Z @ 116-120h

    Further west accumulations depend largely on frontal activity which IS likely to develop as the cold air pool develops structurally (this happens with cold pools often - 2nd Feb 2009 and March 2018 examples). RETAIN a cold easterly input during this phase == blizzard / heavy snow to most elevations. If too much northerly progression == wet mess (3rd Feb 2009 even turned to rain here @ 400m).

    OR via streamer concentrations with the convective flow > watch for this frontal wedge @ 144h becoming more defined, on the ECM it was a finely tuned significant snow event. Under a frontal wedge strong winds are not important - the westwards movement is enveloped by the higher level trough moving east > this needs a watch

    So as explained still various factors which could change in the NWP modelling & so change our snow fate as a result. Nontheless a strong signal for rife snowfall developments in the NWP.

    Game on!

    Would give anything for a Feb 1996 Blackpool - 3118942825_e861231fba.jpg

    • Like 2

    North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Hi all, been a long time since I posted on net-w, but was exchanging views here 10 yrs ago in the amazing 2010-11 winter when the Fylde got covered truly, madly and deeply! Since then been on and off but so many weather disappointments from being in the NW and near the coast made me hang back! I've enjoyed reading everyone's posts here and finally thought I'd put an oar in. Feel hopeful for Tuesday - even here on the Fylde we might get a few flakes. Hoping the rain/snow boundary line is well away from all north west folks! Apologies for the extended 'hi'!

    • Like 8
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