Duane S.

SF, your posts are starting show increasing amounts of desperation with every one made. A shame, as before you started throwing your toys out of the pram I had a lot of respect for what you had to say and your undoubted knowledge.

Yeah, just like the astonishing warmth we are currently experiencing. I too believe we are beginning to plateau. The 'plateau' is likely to be a slow tapering off as opposed to a sharp instantly noticable one. Naturally there WILL be many further 'ups' and 'downs' along the way

Spot on Ribster. It's about time some smelt the coffee and wised up to the fact that us humans and our activities have such a puny longterm effect on the weather that it is hardly worth mentioning. Mother nature must be p*ssing herself laughing at us at the moment.

This is one of the most baffling posts I have ever read.

Very interesting thread indeed. Despite my personal love of hot weather I must admit to 'enjoying' the current weather if only for the fact that it (probably only temporarily) puts a sock in the mouths of those harping on about 'out of control month-on-month temperature rises'. And no, I am not refering to anybody on here (necissarily ) Of course we've been warming up for quite a while now but - I have been of the belief for the past few years that we will shortly see a very distintive tapering off of this trend, leading to an eventual drop. Of course, there will be short-medium term ups and downs along the way and I (obviously) have no idea if this summer is the 'start' of it BUT who knows and - why not? Somebody mentioned, earlier on in this thread about how quiet the Atlantic was 18 months or so ago. I remember that very well. It seemed that nothing would get through and many were predicting that this was the way it was going to be. All the talk was of the UK basking under the AH due to the tendancy of the jetstream to track further and further oop north. I do agree that it WAS an amazingly long period of time and even I was beginning to wonder what was going on as blocking deflected all of the Atlantic's attempts to impose itself on us, time and time again, and with apparant ease. This summer is not just poor it is horrendous, virtually every 'oldie' I speak to about it can't recall one as wet and miserable as this one has been (so far). Many will disagree with this point but IMO A summer THIS bad cannot be put down to a 'blip'. This has been week after week after week of low pressure dominated weather and a southerly jet. Pattern re-load and off we go again! Of course, the second the weather does improve, and eventually and inevitably it will, then May-July '07 will of course be put down to just that, 'a blip'. A 'blip' in this crazy warming trend that is about to kill us all in 25 years or something or another...

For flips sake, it's the middle of July! 'They' haven't got a clue, we haven't got a clue. I can't believe I am even bothering to waste 10 minutes of my time (I'm a slow typer) posting this. What differencve would it've made if they'd said it was going to be a cool winter, at this stage?? They've got the same data we have, it's a speculatative LRF not one for three days time. Surely their response was obvious??? We know they take little note of SSTs and with a very strong possibility of La Nina cropping up, how on earth could they've gone for a blistering cold forecast??

January - 1987. My first taste of driving in the snow as a 17 year just passed his test. How I never crashed I shall never know! February - 1978. A non-spectacular start but the 19th brought a blizzard the likes of which I will never see again in this country, anywhere!!! 20 foot snowdrifts in Sunny Weymouth were not exactly a common sight, even back then! Cut off for four fantastic days and off school for a week plus March - I'll come back to this one... We had a great stormy month but I am trying to remember what the year was! April - 2007, easy one. May - I think it was 1994 and I think it was May (pretty sure). We had the best electric storms I've ever seen, anybody else remember them?? June - 1976. Simply awesome. July - I'll go for '76 over 2006 for nostalgic reasons. August - 1984 seemed to be endless days of sun. Obviously 2003 is a close runner but for the same reasons as cited above in July, I'll plump for the former. September - 2002 gave us a glorious end to the summer. October - I'm going to be predictable and go for 1987 because of the storm. We didn't get it as bad as the SE but I can remember waking up and hearing the radio and thinking that the world had ended! November. 1991, it snowed - and - it settled! December - 1981. Lots of snow! I can't remember another December that produced like this one did.

While you northerners will be getting a few hours of snow, I will be getting absolutely drenched looking at that Fax! I've been looking at the models grasping for something to give me hope and there isn't a lot. Rule out anything next week cold-wise, the atlantic is simply too strong for that block which is a shame as it seems to be developing into something quite decent. I'm hoping that height rises to the NE combined with a slowing jet will give us our next shot at it. Just need that slow-motion LP to shift its butt SE first !! I would look at the weekend of the 18th as when things could start getting interesting again.

I see very little to get excited about for the near to medium future. Everything is pointing to a reasonably prolonged return of the atlantic. Saturday will end up being a non-event for the vast majority. And I disagree that the cold snap appeared at short notice, the charts have been showing (or at least hinting) this for a couple of weeks. I should know, I was harping on about it enough back then. Well, now they are doing the same with regards a not so cold spell of weather driven by a GL PV. Good prospects of some decent, if not unusual for February, storms to head our way though. Enjoy today folks.

I with you on that one Evo. This is an awful setup for me so anybody moaning about 'only' having 5 hours of snow and it 'eventually' turning to sleet/rain should think of me living on the balmy south coast first please!

Well, I really am the eternal optimist but happenings over the past 24 hours have convinced me that this will be a no-show snow event for the south of the UK. Without a half-decent block to the east then even if a short wave does develop and run across the channel there no way of it pulling in any decent cold. Rare for me to say it but for the time being at least, it ain't going to happen.

Everything regarding where any snow is going to hit in the southern half of the country is pure speculation at the moment. Reference that LP due to come scooting across the channel during Thursday, IMO a realistic idea about its actual track will not be known until, at best, 24 hours before it hits. These potentialy adorable little beauties are notorious for veering off somewhere totally unexpected just hours before the event. 12z was about as good as it is ever going to get for me but I really need it to go further south on the next few runs to increase thae chances of being in the northern edge snow window, if you know what I mean. If the 18z were to come off then any PPN would surely be rain for me. You would be better placed but very marginal snow-wise.

I agree with the comments reference not getting too carried away down South. It is going to be marginal for us southerners especially those like me at 0m ASL! I think the LP was progged too low due to the over-progessive nature of the 12z. My guess is that the 18z will have it back further north again. Nice to be proved wrong though

MC, looks like the 12z snow god read my post a couple of hours ago as this is just an awesome, if not still marginal, chart for us on the south coast!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

Sure looks to be Thursday into Friday that will be the big one! I reckon tomorrow through until then will restricted to Scotland, NE England and later on parts of SE England/East Anglia receiving small accumulations via frequent snow showers.

I remember that like it was yesterday. Awesome doesn't even begin to describe it! The thing with being stuck where we are MC is that, compared with virtually every other part of the UK, we don't get snowed on a lot or with as much frequency. But - with the right conditions, cold to our east cming up against an LP moving up from the moist SW, we will get far more than most others wil ever see in one dumping. Problem is, it is soooo rare. These charts do however show some promise, much more than any I can remember over recent years. Only around a 15% chance of something a bit special but I'll take that right now.

This has got ALL the ingredients of being a bit special. Of course it could just as easily be a damp squibb. Everything rests on pressure to our east. If it can build quickly enough then it will be VERY interesting and the chance remains that this could happen. The Countryfile forecast will be of great interest. I bet even now they are scratching their heads trying to put it togther!

2.6 for me

A good (cold) Feb'07 with Jan being way above average (virtually unavoidable now). Just below average March and a wet, windy and very mild April. Spring early summer to be a non-event with a lot of cloud and overall coming in slightly below average. Summer itself to be intermittant with both very hot spells and long-lasting unseasonably cool ones. Overal though, to come in at a fraction above average but with a long late end to the summer coutesy of a blistering September. Bang on average October before the start of Nov through to December herald some very cold spells indeed CET 10.07

I feel a bit guilty going for a punt so close to Dec compared to some but I think I'll still manage to live with myself as a consequence. First week or so, nothing doing in terms of cold weather. I reckon we will see a decent cold snap, although fairly short-lived, starting around the 11th and lasting for a good week. Then after it's back to mild with maybe the last few days of the month cooling down once again. CET 5.5

Now that really is a first, winter being written off before the middle of September Words fail me sometimes.....

The balance comes from different peoples viewpoints not from people's differing viewpoints. ummm that sentence made sense in my head, not sure it does now B) What do you seriously expect those who love the cold to do?? To balance out a previously pro-cold posting with an equvilent mild one?? errr don't think so. There are enough people in all camps to put forward pessimistic, optimistic and pragmatic points of view at all times to achieve a balance of sorts.

acbrixton, that is sheer genius. Absolutely hilarious, yet so true

I particularly like the 'The probability of milder weather then returning looks low at this stage' bit of the Met Office's latest forecast