Duane S.

Having watched the models inthe following order, GFS, ECM, METO I have to say I went from a bit dejected to very pleased to absolutely delighted. Shame they are just models projecting the future but if the ECM and METO (& I'm glad it's these two) are onto something then some serious fun and games to be had towards the end of next week. I'll feel more confident if the 06z can trend, even a little bit, towards the Euros this morning though.

How often do we see the first 9 days of the GFES ensembles with not one member at any point going above the mean line! Quite extraordinary.

Hands up who likes the ECM? If the answer is 'no' I suggest you look for a new hobby! :lol:

No we're not Have patience, it is all coming together VERY nicely. The Sunday 'event' always looked to be being a result of some models being a tad over-progressive.

And now the METO has followed suit. Better ones than even I was hoping for. Not perfect but what is. A great way to start the weekend. Plenty more upgrades to follow. ECM likely to follow on from a very good 00z. Although I suspect the GFS will be one of the cooler members when the ensembles come out in 20 minutes or so.

Personally I think a Northerly is a natural progression following on from the Easterly in this setup. I said earlier to expect upgrades and this is one of what I expect to be many more (although there will of course be poor ones in amongst them which goes without saying)

This is a much better run than the 06z. Liking it a lot. No point speculating about it any further out than where I currently am at +150, very happy. Interesting little SW to the SW if you get what I mean

Talking about the AO, at last we see the projected drop in values take place. Today's update... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Interesting to note that in 5 days time not one member goes for anything above -4 This has been on the cards for a while and I really believe this is affecting the chart's behaviour. The NAO too has started to drop and there is fairly uniform agreement that it will a bit more before plateauing for a few days, before slowly heading back up - but there is no sign of anything positve (in term of the pressure anomoly, not the outlook!) Not sure what the MJO is likely to do next (i.e head to phase 8 or dropdown into phase 1/2?) but it is in a very favourable position ATM, which ties in with what we are seeing. There is quite a lot of doom and gloom at the mo on here, all things considered. Under a more 'normal' recent-type setup I would think we may be looking at a gradual small daily downgrade to something cold, frosty with occasional snow next week but that is not the case. I just have a feeling that over the next few days, with plenty of blips, we are going to see upgrades and good ones.

I know I posted this just now but the previous thread is just about to close. Reference that November 2005 event, who on here would have gone for quite such a good chart on the 25th after the one on the 22nd?

Reference that November 2005 event, who on here would have gone for quite such a good chart on the 25th after the one on the 22nd?

So true. If this was happening xx years ago, all that 99.9% of us would know at this stage would be the forecasters starting to tell us on the BBC/ITV that colder weather was on the way next week. There must have be hundreds of occasions in the past xx years before the internet age that the METO had been watching a potential severe cold spell about to materialise, only for it to downgrade a few days before. Being realistic, how would we ever have known? Living where I do, I expect nothing but hope for something, anything in fact...! A passing light snow shower here is like a 5cm covering in other places in terms of expectations, really! However as I've said many times in the past, we in the SW are in a prime place to receive the jackpot payload of snow, the likes of which most other places in the UK would never be able to match. Problem is the amount of things you need to fall into place for it to happen!

Totally disagree. The 'cold spell' is now 'nailed on' and I won't waver from that belief. You could of course accuse me of being ambiguous when I say 'cold spell' in inverted commas and maybe I am a bit, but - the fact remains that a cold spell IS going to happen in the UK from very early next week. I don't see what could scupper this now. I didn't say it will be a SUSTAINED cold period (although personally I think it will be, relative to our usual cold snaps), I didn't say it will dump bucketloads of snow on every inch of the UK. Cold though it will be and unless all the models and all the signals are telling us porky pies I simply don't see any way in which this whole thing could implode to the point that we don't get a 'cold spell'. Unless you can tell me one of course...

As Nick and some others say above it really is as simple as wishing for low pressure in the med and a whopping heights over Greenland. As long as that is the case, sit back and watch the fun. Some need to remember though that there are going to be mild(er) interludes but on the flip side with this setup in place there will also be snow events, potentially big ones. Where and when though? Well let's just get to this setup first...

I think some in the North half of the country are getting agitated as the HP does seem now not to be going as far North as it was once progged to do but this is likely to evolve into a very potent North ot North Easterly later on and give them all a pasting. If I was being fussy I would have the high positioned a little more NE than it is, we don't want it to slip too far to our NW. But really, I need to give myself a slap for saying that, this is 1060 TRUE Greenland High, in DECEMBER !! All in all another great run, keeping the same theme just with a slightly different evolution, although did anybody really genuinely expect every run from now on in to be an upgrade on upgrade??

What are people talking about above, what is soooo bad about this run so far?? Maybe I am looking at a different run to some. Most bizarre.

This morning is the morning when a 'cold spell; has been nailed on. TBH as I said in my last post last night, I couldn't see how the ECM was NOT going to backtrack from what it had showed the past 2 days. It went against all the signals and the other models. Someting was wrong and that seemed a bit of a no-brainer. What concerned me was that the GFS was going to start to falter, it hasn't and in fact has produced a Stella run which if offered I think anybody on here would take in an instant. The METO isn't quite as good but is still excellent (to put it into perpective to an average mid December UK weather chart!) For my neck of the woods it doesn't matter what the charts forecast 3,4,5 days ahead, even taking into account a good level of accuracy, it is always going to be marginal for me out that far. But it is looking better initially for the South and East before the whole country joins in the fun later on next week. A major backtrack is now VERY unlikey IMO (but not totally impossible). That block is going to take some shifting and yes there will no doubt be milder interludes but I struggle to see the Atlantic steamrollering back in any time soon for sure. Regards the ECMWF. No loss of face, I think it's still a very good model. It has been outperformed by most other models in the lead up to this cold spell (assuming of course it does take place), it may be as simple as it doesn't seem to know how to handle the incredible -AO (with a decent -NAO) forecasts that are out there, although the sharp falloffs in values down towards -4, , -5 :o :o and possibly even -6!! :o :o :o are still to actually occur (however all the signs are it is a high probablity that a very negative AO value will be reached). I will rest easier on this time tomorrow but it hasn't been a bad week so far!

Would do but need some beauty sleep for the Xmas party tomorrow. I just have a feeling the ECM is going to come back in line on the 00z. If it does I would say the cold spell is nailed. Intensisty, duration, percipitation etc all to be determined obviously... No doubt the GFS will then decide to throw a wobbly if the ECM plays ball though! Not sure why I'm laughing, stranger things have happend with these charts! :o

Soon we will be getting to the inevitable point when two notable things happen... 1) Some get so wrapped up on wanting continual upgrade after upgrade shortly after the 'event' has started that they forget to actually 'enjoy the moment'. 2) We get the "it's an upgrade!" "no it's a downgrade!!" scenario when Bill from Dartmoor and Ben from Scotland argue with each over over whether or not a certain run/chart is an upgrade or a downgrade. The futility of these arguments between people often living at opposite ends of the country never fails to amuse/amaze me.

This is exactly what I have been constantly saying as well. I have been incredibly impressed with the consistency of the model, like no other I have ever seen in the run up to a cold spell, without qusetion. But of course, at this stage, you can only be impressed with consistency, not yet verification. Hopefully though we will be lauding it as the king of models in a week's time and not writing it off before it has even begun! All very intriguing to see how this pans out...

FAX does NOT follow the ECM but is a little bit disappointing nevertheless, I was expecting better. All in all though another good day and another day closer to it all kicking off.

It's always the same at this time, a good old Mexican standoff ensues! Yes I agree the ECM is incredibly stubborn at times but then I suppose the same could be said of all the models at times. The thing is the past two ECMWF runs have been sooo far of the mark and now with the ensembles which on the face of it give the op some credience, surely something here is adrift?? If it really IS on to something however, and I have to say I give that only a 10% chance, then it will certainly go up in my estimation as I've never really bought into all this ECM worshipping.

Jeeeez, I'd forgotten quite how fraught it gets in here when we start getting close to the 'reliable timeframe'. Some of the posts I have had to trawl through here are an absolute joke and quite pathetic TBH. Try to be objective. Listen to what the few experienced forecasters and experts on here have to say. Listen to them, don't take each run as gospel. One chart which I WOULD say is fairly important is the FAX later on but let's get it into perspective, it won't be ALL OVER' even if that is a downgrade! Ah what's the use... :lol: As for the 18z, looks good to me, certainly seen enough up to +102 to say it is not keen so far on an ECM evolution. ECM just looks flawed, as it did on last night's 00z. It won't happen like it tells it. Sorry I have to say this bit but really, Ian Brown, your outrageous comment earlier (you know which one), for somebody who predicted the warmest December CET on record and mild SWerlies all month, I would think you may wish to be a little less condencending in your posts and a little more humble, no?

Interesting charts this morning. Would I take a GFS solution right now? Well I would certainly take exactly what the 00z has predicted in a shot but if it is going to be like that then it becomes a lot riskier and potentially a lot more marginal, especially living on the south coast. HOWEVER, the potential would be there for a massive massive battleground snow event for the south. As for the ECM, I'm not saying it just because it doesn't show what we want but I don't buy it, it just looks wrong.

Seriously, when will people ever learn to stop fretting over this run and that run. It won't turn out like this! :lol:

I think that part is already nailed on. Too many signals for that part now not to happen IMO. It's what happens next that is understandably up in the air! Not a bad position to be in though as you say!