Duane S.

For many of the reasons stated above, I am liking the 06z.

Due to the swear filter that link won't work. The best bet is to go to http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/index.asp and click on the 'Check out Joe's European Column' link on the left hand side

Ah well, that's that then. I suppose it's all about your take on things. If you go looking for positives you will find them, if you go looking for negatives they are there too. In all honesty we probably need glass-half-empty posters like yourself to keepmost members' feet on the ground at times like this. I think it's a small step forward in terms of the fact we are another day on and there have been no significant downgrades, certainly no major upgrades but every day that passes by that shows a potential cold scenario getting closer increases the chances of something happening. Although, expect to get very frustrated with that Euro high before it finally produces something a few days before Xmas.

I think all in all the 00z runs are very promising. METO looks to be heading in the right direction, which is a bit of a relief. The GFS is good again and the ECM very decent indeed. The one downside for me is the GEFS ensembles which are not brilliant but at this stage I am not too concerned about this.

Reference the ensembles. Firstly, wow, never quite seen an outlier like the Athens one posted above and secondly, I am very encouraged by tonight's ensembles for my neck of the woods after looking at the GFS (18z). Nothing spectacular and the operational wasn't what I would class as an outlier but there are more members looking to go cold and VERY cold to boot. I await the next few days with baited breath, but - my gut tells me we are looking at a HP cell sat smack over us with Europe getting the brunt of the cold, however, IMO, our big chance comes a few days later.

Yep the these are definately a cause for concern. Hopefully just a blip but we need to see other members start to go cold over the next half dozen chart runs or so or I am going to start to get worried.

Remember folks, we are dancing with the devil with this HP cell. High Pressures rarely retrogress in the manner we are hoping this one will, although, this time it is plausable that it could. I think we will have to content ourselves, initially, with an inversion high similar to that of last Xmas before a shot at the real cold just before Xmas itself.

The models have swung back dramatically in favour of a cold spell over the past 24 hours or so. With this in mind remember that it will NOT now be a progressive countdown to T-0 whereby every subsequent run is as good or better than the last! It could easily go very pear-shaped, I struggle to see it ending up being a blowtorch but we are asking a bit of a favour of the old enemy (the Euro high) here We have to prepare for some serious downgrades and not get disheartened when, inevitably, they hit. The word you can't use enough when viewing charts in 'trends', nothing else counts for much and what we have been seeing is a trend for HP retrogression (how often do we see that happen?), Cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe (Note I said Europe and not the UK ) and the jet to act very favourably in due course. I stick by my original belief that we are going to get a short-lived relatively cold blast in 8-10 days time but it will be a precursor to a bigger one 4 to 7 days after that. Get your bets on for a white Xmas. Obviously still much more likely that it won't snow but there haven't been many early December periods of late when things have looked this promising for a Xmas day flurry.

The rollercoaster is in full flow ATM and for those that missed the cracking 18z pub run last night will be able to find solice in the equally good 12z. This morning's parallel run was good (haven't looked at the latest parallel run yet). Now, could we get the ECM to show it's support please? Don't forget, the ECM came up with a couple of cracking operationals about 5 days. What we are seeing is the almost inevitable northern heights building being reflected on the charts. I doubt we will end up copping for it as good as the 12z would have us believe but the trend is building for a pretty special pre-xmas treat. Whatever happens from here on in, VERY VERY interesting model watching days ahead.

I saved a couple of them

So many are so quick to dismiss charts that show cold purely and simply because we don't normally get proper cold here in the UK. Fair enough but it is a bit of a rubbish way of looking at it. Often the only basis of rebuffing a particular chart run is as simplistic as that. We are all pragmatic enough (I would hope) to understand that the FI scenario the 18z is far more likely not to happen than to happen. But... IMO the scenario being painted here is VERY plausable. As some have already alluded to, possibly our best route in is with the Euro high building at the same time as the Atlantic tails off and heights build to our N / NE. A classic dogleg movement of VERY VERY cold air COULD (if we got lucky) be sent steaming down from the arctic towards us, aka the 18z. The prospect that for once the timings could be on our side is what interests me the most at the moment.

Yeah yeah, it's FI and all that. But come on let us have our moment. The 18z is an absolute picture of beauty.

Also, whilst I do agree -AO does not mean the UK has cold weather, the forecast still is for this to drop through the floor. I really do expect to see many more decent Arctic high appearances over the coming couple of weeks or so on the charts. NAO still progged to drop further negative as well at present. I think we will see the charts take on a more promising appearance over the coming days.

Yep, that's pretty much how I see it. Whenever cold air plunges southwards much more often that nor we miss out. The fabled true Arctic high sees us miss out even more so, but as you say, on the flip side, if we do get lucky when this rare beast delivers its payload, it would likely be the jackpot. High risk Arctic high, big payday or lower risk Scandi/surface high smaller dividends. I know which one I would plump for!

+1 on that. I've got the highest respect for GP who is rarely far off the mark. Anybody new to the forum should be reading his posts as a matter of priority. Even if you don't understand it all (I don't) you will be able to glean the gist of his projections and more importantly how he came to them!

Sorry, can't let that pass. Nothing has actually occured yet but somehow the man who has called for the highest December CET since 1988 gets some credit, The models have shown just about every scenario possible over the past week or so and will revert back to another spell of cold forecasts during the next 48 hours no doubt. There looks like there will be a lot of pent up cold 'on tap' in about 10 days time, IMO the likelhood is that this will be for Eastern Europe, Western Russia but we have an outside chance of copping for it. Also, I think that once (if) it does flood southwards there will be more than one bite at it..

I think that is a very realistic view of what is possibly the most likely outcome.

My point exactly which is why it is so frustrating that my criticisms of just that seem to get removed yet Ian's posts remain there laughing in the face of reason. Then again I suppose it's him that is looking increasingly daft so hey... The ECM really is a classic and I don't think it is THAT unlikely either. The signs have been there for a while regarding some serious heights building above us so why not? Yes it's FI but a few more runs like that and we will be on to a trend. Where's SM and his thoughts when you need him??

Whoa!!! the ECM at +216 is a little bit yummy. After a few days of both the GFS and the ECM all but giving up on a strong block, bang, it's back. Even if it doesn't happen it sure is nice to look at.

Back to the models and I have to say that they are more confused about where we are heading early-mid December than most of us. Tonight's 18z is for sure to be consigned to the bin. My gut feeling is that we are going to be in for a coolish couple of weeks but I struggle to see a repeat of the 1980 scenarios many have akined this upcoming spell to. Still can't decide whether or not we are going to see any decent heights building to our N as well . I really thought the models would have started to settle on a trend by now but it appears not.

A fact often swept away under the carpet. What a shame for the moderneraists that the late 70's and early/mid 80's happened, they could've notched a few more years onto the 'christmas pudding' timeframe.

Good post. However, I think it is pie in the sky to expect the perenial glass-half-empty posters to start being positive (it's the same every year ) or that Spin Doctor Ian Brown will be able to post something that does not contain the words 'modern' and 'era' (he is obviously going with the old 'throw enough of the brown stuff and some of it will stick' addage). Isn't it strange how he only pops up when we have Atlantic weather and warm anomolies to attempt to persuade us it is happening all the time (maybe the cold got to his fingers last winter?) We've had a typical Autumn, warmer than average but that is the point of having averages, some have got to be warmer and nobody to my knowledge was predicting a blinding start to the winter so what we have is what was to be expected. It is not out of the question that this COULD continue for the majority of the winter (albeit with the odd cold interlude come mid-winter), not impossible and far from unprecedented either (despite what some will have you believe). I think there is an increasing trend showing for a pattern change and some sort of blocking in the future. This may well not bring about a cold snap for us but I think that by this time next week the charts are going to be showing a different scenario than the one they have predominately been showing us during November. I don't expect (and never did) this winter to be a classic I am just looking forward to the rollercoaster rides that will inevitably occur once winter proper gets up and going.

Yep, after a wild day the wind has now dropped right off here on the Dorset coast

Superb cloud formations out there at the moment and has been for the past half hour or so, made even more impressive with the sun. Pictures don't do it justice (nor my photography :lol: ).

Yep but I wouldn't play down that front squall line which is already a hundred miles east of me, it has intensified and will be giving a lot in the London area some pretty dramatic weather by the looks of things.