karyo
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Posts posted by karyo
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The heaviest snow shower of the day so far! Lovely medium sized flakes.
The hills have disappeared from my view.
Karyo
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its a balmy 5C here at the moment :lol: so any snow will probably melt on impact with the ground if it were to fall.
Your temperature is 2c higher than mine! I would have expected you to be a bit colder with the wind coming from the East (miniman sea effect).
Light snow continuing here and we've passed the snow grain stage - the flakes are nicely fluffy!
Nothing settling at this stage although the flakes take their time to melt when they hit my balcony.
Karyo
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I have to say this is turning out much better than expected! The bbc local forecast was going for a dry day with plenty of bright spells.
We are only getting light flurries at the moment but it is so important that they make it over the Pennines. Yorkshire and Lincolnshire ae starting to get heavy snow showers so hopefully some moderate falls for us in the next few hours.
Worth watching the satellite as well - it shows the speckled clouds over the North sea getting more organised as the colder upper air digs in.
Karyo
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Light snow falling here as well. It bodes well for later as this is just a light band of precipitation and it still made it over the Pennines.
Karyo
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hi everybody,
the countryfile weather was the best i've ever seen! Significant upgrade in terms of precipitation. They showed a lot of snow showers crossing the Pennines in the latter part of today and especially tonight! Yes, the heaviest stuff will be to the east of the Pennines but even ith some moderate falls we should get a nice covering by the morning, helped by the sub zero temperatures.
Then heavy snowfall from the southeast moving north tomorrow late afternoon will bring some heaier snow and we should avoid the noisance of sleet or rain according to the forecast. In fact the forecaster didn't nebtion anything else apart from snow for this event!
Dry on Tuesday with 3c so some slow thaw but still hopefully with plenty of snowcover left. After that a wintry mix was shown in places with a stalling front over the midlands. Of course, the exact position of front and precipitation for later in the week is not decided yet.
The wintry theme continues for the end of the week with fronts from the north bringing a wintry mix.
All and all, a classic countryfile forecast.
Currently here, it is turning cloudy agai after a sunny slot. There is band of light snowfall on the Pennines and i expect to see a few flakes in the wind here in a bit. But as i said above, the heavier snow showers won't affect us till much later.
Karyo
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Interesting that the Winter temperature spikes seem to occur on or very near dates where there have been previous spikes in the maximum series - viz. the current one and those of late January and late February in 2008.
That's an interesting observation and certainly quite often one major strqtospheric warming is followed by others! This happened for example late last winter. The difference this time, is that the stratospheric temperatures are not falling quickly after the main event but very slowly which is a good things for more long lasting effects (i.e. northern blocking).
I wonder what do the experts think about the possibility of further warming events occuring into February?
Edit: i've just read GPs and SMs posts in the model output thread - potential for further warming events to be trigerred.
Karyo
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It's a great relief to hear you are ok!
By the way, i don't know what i would do without internet access for 3 days...
Karyo
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It is a good morning indeed!
I have to say things are looking better every day! As already mentioned, the stratospheric warming has already started and the zonal winds are not only expected to go negative but also stay negative: http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...xes&alert=1
Also, as tundra mentions, it will be interesting to see to what extend the Met Office will take into consideration this warming in their update for February.
Karyo
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It should. JMA is usually a little behind ECM forecasts - and this has been predicted and slowly upgraded over several days now. But we are very close, and need to keep everything crossed! NCEP/GFS forecasts have been bullish about this warming too.
Edit - I am wondering if that link has been updated for at least a few days. The warming is actually starting now already.
Yes, it has been updated - i visit it every day! I often find that it doesn't directly correspond with the ECM forecasts but picks up the same trend. For example, this can be seen from November's minor warming.
Anyway, as you say it should show a steep rise in the next couple of days!
Karyo
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The forecast looks very promising but we need to see a rise occuring here as soon as possible: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/...e/pole30_n.html
Hopefully, it will start showing in the next day or two.
Karyo
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ah but, remember it is a forecast, like I said a little way above, forecasts, as I know from experience do not always come off
It's always a good practice to be cautious with forecasts in general. However, the stratospheric ones have a good rate of accuracy and success. Last year's events were forecasted very well with only minor changes.
Besides, this stratospheric warming event is expected to begin in a couple of days, so the margin or error is very small.
Karyo
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Last winter took more than one bite before the warming fully propagated down to the surface. Memories play tricks and in fact the initial warming surge timewise was not as different as expressed and suggested yesterday. And it followed up with two more. The third and final one was at the end of February. (Tried to insert a link to show this, but has not worked for some reason)
It depends how the forecast unravels over the next day or two, and if the 30mb level can stretch a bit further,but a full warming to all levels is probably yet to come, and like last year it may take its time. Perhaps taking that view though, any advance on timing can be seen as a bonus.
hi Tamara,
i think last year's first warming was not reflected much on the 30hpa level hence we had to wait for the 2nd and 3rd to see the results. This year, the warming is also expected to affect the 30hpa so fingers crossed.
I am also hoping for further episodes of warming during February so as to see a cold start to spring.
Karyo
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Furthermore, there is a suggestion on this forecast that this is as far down that the easterly wind will reverse to before the westerlies increase again.
c
That's still a significant stratospheric warming! As for the zonal winds, this is the first time they are expected to turn easterly since the beginning of this period (Nov 1st). Even the slightly above average stratospheric temperatures of November resulted under a period of westerlies. So we should do better this time!
Besides, GP in one of his posts (post 161 to be exact) said that zonal wind anomalies in the 25-30m/s mean value are 'acceptable'.
I am very pleased with the current forecast and hopefully this will be the first in a series of warmings like it happened last year.
Karyo
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Being a idiot at all this, those predicted temps seem to be incredible.......possibly even unprecedented ?.
What on earth would the impact be...
It looks spectacular, doesn't it?
The truth is it has happened before. I think the last significant warming was February last year which lead to northern blocking in March and April. This resulted in the potent wintry spells we experienced in the first half of spring. This time, the warming is occuring earlier which is good news.
The excellent news is that the lower part of the stratosphere (30hpa) is also likely to be affected as this was a bit of a concern in the last couple of days.
Karyo
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I think a little time has to be given regarding the 30mb level. I don't think we can assume it will happen immediately, just like that, necessarily.
I wouldn't be surprised to see an initial slight to moderate warming - evough to weaken the PV. Any warming will weaken the PV after all. Then, further warming which will complete the exercise. But I think we need to let events unfold - this evolution isn't over yet. A faily major warming is still quite possible IMO
Indeed, this is what happened last year, an initial warming was fallowed by a few others which gradually had an impact on the 30hpa level. Besides, even November's minor warmings allowed enough blocking to develop for the cold spells in December.
Karyo
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yes caution indeed, we have the cooling effect to work through before we even think about a possible warming; its unlikely that (any warming) will impact before early to mid February in my view.
That is NOT to say we cannot have cold before then.
Absolutely, i am not expecting any positive effects before mid February at the earliest as my post states. My optimism is also based on the drop of zonal winds which should encourage a significant stratospheric warming. The next few days should hopefully show this.
Until then, some cold zonality or northwesterly episodes will be our best chance for cold and snow.
Karyo
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Yes, yes, yes! This is what we've been waiting for: http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...mps&alert=1
The beginning of a significant warming event! Coupled with a major drop in zonal wind anomalies: http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...xes&alert=1
If this happens, the second half of February and March look promising!
Karyo
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Thanks for that
It certainly is predicted to rocket up.
Nice to see the stratopheric zonal winds expected to reduce considerably hopefully signalling a further recovery of the stratopheric temperatures.
Karyo
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Worth noting that despite the falling temperature anomalies at 30 hPa, the zonal winds are forecast to decline considerably:
That's some good news and hopefully the first signs of a warming event that many of us are hoping/praying for! It doesn't even have to be a major one, just to edge the temperature upwards a bit closer to average for the time of year. This can be enough to slow the jet a bit and open the door for the latter part of February and March.
Karyo
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hi guys,
just a question from me. What are your thoughts for end of winter early spring? We often get some decent wintry events in March and i wonder whether you expect this to be the case again this year.
We have the developing La Nina which favours cold spells in the start of spring but as the La Nina is developing quite late this year in comparison to the last one, will it still bring those early spring cold spells?
Thanks in advance and well done on your efforts so far!
Karyo
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Why is the 60N graph showing a possible marked rise in temperature for the 10hpa?
No idea but it is interestingly accompanied by a small rise at the 90N. Worth watching over the weekend.
Karyo
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Latest update
c
Thank you for the update. A grim outlook!
Karyo
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That would be a blessing. A stratospheric warming event mid January would considerably increase our chances for northern blocking and cold outbreaks in February (especially the 2nd half).
I have everything crossed!
In the meantime, mid latitude highs will be our best chance for cold.
Karyo
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Very surprised to see snow falling and settling in Manchester city centre (on untreated side roads and pavements). I was just expecting rain and sleet!
Karyo
Snow Watch: Nw England
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Horrizontal snow now! :lol:
Karyo