karyo
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Posts posted by karyo
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Seems to still be tracking west to east so only the southern Midlands are likely to be affected - south of Brum only :o
To the West of the Pennines it's a different story. We've had light rain for the last hour which is now intensifying to the south of the city. Getting darker too.
To the west of the Pennines it is still dry and bright but it will go downhill there too during the afternoon.
Karyo
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The day started cloudy but bright here in Manchester with an easterly breeze. The cloud has thickened now and it started to spit.
The main action is much further south of course and I don't expect much rain till the latter part of the afternoon.
Karyo
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Aye, coldest May/June for 20 years, and now the first snow in Bueno Airies in 89 years :o
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6286484.stm
Some folk get all the luck - At this rate I bet Egypt gets more snow next winter than we do :lol:
Nice to see cold and snow making the headlines for a change.
Nice change!
Karyo
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Here
Class
Click on web camera on the left.What a stunning place! Totally unspoilt beauty thanks to the small number of humans living there.
Karyo
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I have a sneaky feeling that this will become a busy and popular thread if the signals remain
BFTP
I really hope so. Something to help me (and other winter lovers) through the summer months.
Seriously though, as positive things may look now, we need to be cautious because I remember many positive signals and winter forecasts that went disappointly wrong!
On the other hand, we shouldn't see another winter like 2006/7 in a hurry - even with climate change.
Karyo
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Apart from some cumulous there's nothing of interest here. Disappointing day!
Karyo
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It looked pretty promising here until half an hour ago with good convention. However, the clouds have moved to my west now and they could become showers as they slowly head for the coast.
To my east, where normally the best convention can be found (Pennines) there's absolutely nothing. Boring blue skies and not a decent cumulous to be seen. It must be some drier air that has moved in from the east.
It certainly looks less promising today with higher pressure than yesterday.
Karyo
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and parts of the Alps are doing quite well over the past couple of days.
The main street in Wengen yesterday, 4,500ft, the report gives 10cm of snow with over 30cm fresh snow higher up.
Perfect! Look at her smiley face!
This picture perfectly represents how happy snow makes people.
Karyo
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Precious snow! It makes me wish it was winter again. Oh well, in less than a month the nights will start getting shorter and the countdown will begin again!
Karyo
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In theory it should be a more active season this time. However, all the forecasts for last year's hurricane season (including NOAA) were wrong as they were talking about above average tropical activity and as we all know it was a very quiet one instead.
Karyo
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Still snowing nicely in Stoke although the flakes are not that big now. Main roads have loads of slush while minor roads and totally covered now. The local bbc foreast mentioned ice becoming a problem as temperature is expected to drop to 0c but that might be a bit optimistic.
A moderate easterly wind makes it look like a blizzard at times!
Karyo
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Hi, just wondering if anyone knows what the temperature in stoke-on-trent is plz? It's been snowing for hours now, but nothing settling still as the ground is soaked
Where about are you? Snow is covering everything in Fenpark which is a bit higher than Hanley. Huge flakes as well. Not sure what the temperature is but it must be falling.
Karyo
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Don't you just love unexpected snow?
I heard about the weather warnings for the Midlands this morning and decided to leave work in Manchester early so as to avoid problems for my return to Stoke. As I was leaving Manchester it started to rain and I thought well maybe low elevation and close distance to the Irish sea is the reason. Then in Macclesfieldrain was turning to sleety snow and I started to get dissappointed. The arrived in Stoke where it was snowing but it wasn't settling and I could clearly see the snow from yesterday was thawing slowly.
However, within an hour the snow has become a lot heavier and starting to settle againthanks to avaporative cooling and my elevation. Looking at the radar and hearing reports here I think I'll have a lots more as it is moving northeast from Wales and the west midlands area.
Great times!
PS What a joke the met office forecasts have been I must say. Yesterday tey were talking about a quite day for Friday with no snowfall. This morning they talked about snow for the southwest and wales moving northeast but warning only for those areas and now they realised how much more serious the situation has got.
Karyo
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The ECM looks bad also. It gives rising pressure to the south and mainland Europe and low pressure to the north. Let's hope things change soon because I have better expectations from February especially after the winter update (met office) earlier this week.
Karyo
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Can sobody please post the 06z ensembles as I they haven't been updated in net weather?
Karyo
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The +48,+60,+72 are now out.
http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVI89.png
http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVJ89.png
http://cirrus.netweather.tv/fax/PPVK89.png
Not much to add following my snow map. What I will say is note how the occluded front becomes almost stationary, also note how on the +72 how the 528 dam moves S and IMO if there is any precip left on this front those areas S of the front that have seen snow turn to rain could well see this turn back to snow as a colder NE,lys moves in as the LP centre tracks E. By this stage though I don't expect much precip left on the front expect this to be more an area of cloud. Somone though could see large snowfall totals from this front and the favoured areas continue to be those that are on my map.
It is brilliant news that as the low moves east is likely to track the cold air back in. As we know, not so long ago it was expected to turn milder.
Nevertheless, the UKMO doesn't look as promising for the weekend unlike the gfs which brings more snow.
Karyo
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More good news! The Met office released their winter update for the remaining winter. It talks about further cold spells and snowfall. This is in accordance with what some models show (inc. the 6z gfs) i.e. northern blocking!
Karyo
Please comment here:
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...mp;#entry912784
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What a brilliant 6z gfs! A Scandi high is evident throughout the run and another shot of cold air from the Northeast. Now compare that with yesterday's 6z which had everything blown away by the Atlantic and what you get is a big upgrade.
Karyo
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Edited as off topic - please post about the media forecasts in the relevant discussion.
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What time will the ecm ensembles be out?
Karyo
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The 12z ECM is even worse than the 00z output. It takes the jet so much further north than the whole of south europe has high pressure. It couldn't have been more different than the UKMO and GFS.
Karyo
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The ECM refuses to show a proper Scandi high and has a strong low pressure system to the North of Scandinavia. This is something that the 12z gfs has also shown. In fact the 12z gfs,despite showing a brilliantly cold and wintry spell, has also downgratedthe strength of the Scandi high as did the 12z UKMO. Yesterday weve seen most models incrase heights to our northeast but today the trend has been reversed.
Karyo
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Even though the Scandi high is not as strong in this run, cold hpa values remain in Scandinavia throughout the run and towards the end pressure builds there again. Although this is wellinto FI I think it's important because weather patterns can become repeatitive in February and that'sone repetition that can never become boring for cold lovers!
Roger also hintedatthis possibility in his earlier post.
Karyo
Click on web camera on the left.
Heavy rain/storms Friday 20th - Saturday 21st
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
I think there won't be any electric activity by the time the rain band properly arrives here. I hope I'm wrong of course.
It will still be heavy though.
Karyo