karyo
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Posts posted by karyo
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When I first read the forecast I thought 'not too bad' as a slightly above average winter is better than what the Met Office are predicting. However, I then saw the chart with the dominant Azores High controlling our weather and thought 'oh no'!
I'll take a cool anticyclonic month anytime than Atlantic dominated!
Karyo
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hI Steve,
If it was 1st December with short days and little sunshine on the Northern Slopes ,I would be confident for it to stick around for much of the winter above 1500m. The present snow level is 700m and is expected to rise to 1200m during the next 7 days. However, the mountain forecast centre in Salzburg indicates that a base has now been made above that level with a continued good chance of renewed snowfall in the present weather pattern. A flow from the Adriatic would quickly thaw the snow lying below 1200m, if that were to happen ?
C
Another one for you snow lovers. Thats Fieberbrunn mountain around the corner from Kitzbuhel in the Ost Tirol. A real snow pocket this , 4Ocm of the white stuff fallen at only 790m asl
C
Thank you for the updates and wonderful photos Carinthian. I am impressed by the amount of snow that there is already. I hope the weather remains cold.
Karyo
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I don't like the projected track as it should stay away from the US. On the other hand, at least Mexico and the Carribean will get a respite after Dean and Felix.
Karyo
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Hello Weather-watchers
Is 99L the same storm they are talking about here?
http://wcbstv.com/topstories/local_story_248185549.html
Cheers
Ned
Yeap, that's the one!
Karyo
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Not for the feint hearted this chart, much mildness for December - taken from todays update on our lrf system (based around the cfs)
That would be a disastrous December with Russia and Eastern Europe 3 degrees above average. It would mean that the only wintry incursions would be rare and from the Atlantic!
Thankfully, the last winter's lrf was wrong and hopefully this one will be too.
Karyo
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Philip Eden's Manley CET has risen slightly upto the 23rd to 15.9C, expect further rises this weekend as maxes and mins rise slightly, then a cooling off next week may see a slight drop, around 16.0C give or take 0.1C seems a good bet atm.
Saturday should be the last day where a small rise is expected. From Sunday the cooling trend begins.
Karyo
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They say;
Most likely to be warmer than the 1971-2000 average, though cooler than last autumn
Average or below-average rainfall is more likely rather than above-average rainfall
I said;
Above average temps. Below average rainfall.
Hows that not a good summary?
Key to their forecast is the placement of the high pressure to the west of the UK. As I said earlier, this can allow n/nw incursions from time to time.
Also, the high pressure in the latter part of autumn can suppress temperatures significantly with fog and frost.
Karyo
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Heres the Met's autumn forecast;
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...2007/index.html
Above average temps. Below average rainfall. Sound familier?
That's not a good summary I'm afraid Gavin!
They are actually expecting the high pressure to be centred in the Atlantic so no Euro high this time! They say temperatures likely to be above average but cooler than last Autumn - they always say above average anyway.
The set-up they describe should give northerly incursions from time to time. It's a matter of the Atlantic high linking with Greenland.
Karyo
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The Met Office have released their Autumn forecast - in a nutshell
High pressure to the west - more frequent
Dryer than normal - good news I would think for most of us
Less windy than normal - goody goody - I hate wind
Cooler than last year but not cold
Perhaps more mist/fog toward the end of Autumn
www.metoffice.com
Very good news! This will prepare us nicely for winter - no anomalous warmth, no southwesterlies, no high ssts.
The bad news would have been for a Euro High and a rampant northern arm of the jet.
Karyo
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Hahaha, yet again My pre-emptive skills strike again!
I just made a post in the waves thread about a wave in the W.Atlantic to the north of the leeward island and what do you know its been declared invest 92L.
SHIPS have just run making 92L a hurricane by 96hrs. The early Statistical models take Dean pretty far north heading roughly NW as a hurricane however these models aren't all that good when it comes to systems this far north as they aren't dynamic in nature. Most global models I've seen that do anything with the invest take it WNW towards S.Florida but its very very early days yet. Current movement is NW then possibly a turn back to WNW.
This is certainly one to watch and odds on to be out next tropical storm to watch, just as Dean decays over Mexico 92L should be ramping up through the levels.
Well, the US has managed to dodge Dean so it is only fair that the next storm system will affect them. I just hope that the system won't shift northwards and all the warm moist air towards us.
Karyo
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I am not really into hurricanes but I have to say the satellite images of Dean look absolutely impressive. What I find disappointing though, is that Dean is affecting all the poor countries that will take long to recover (Leeward islands, Jamaica, Mexico) and leaves the wealthy and overpolluting USA unaffected! Oh well, maybe the next one...
Karyo
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Hi, not sure whether this is the right place, but I'm just curious as to whether the arctic/antarctic (during the planets entire history) have ever been completely devoid of snow and ice, if not what the minimum might have been? Also during any ice age, how far south has any cold/ice extended?
Thanks.
I was watching a documentary on discovery channel a few months ago which mentioned that Antartica was covered by rain forests. The documentary was about dinosaurs in different parts of the world. The documentary said that there was frost and snow only during winter and only for short periods of time. The Artic was not mentioned but I assume that the Antartic was best for snow thanks to the large land mass.
Karyo
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However in between these periods of heavy rain we could have a temporary ridge from the azores which will bring max temps to around normal but because of the time of year the min temps will be lower than say in June/July.
I agree totally and yesterday was the perfect example. It ended up reasonably warm here (the first warm day since last weekend) and I thought that the night would also be milder than previous nights. However, after 9pm the temperature dropped suddenly thanks to the clear skies and we had another chilly one thanks to the duration of the night.
As you say, in June/July the temperatues wouldn't be so low because the nights are shorter - it starts brightening up after 3am!
Karyo
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Putin stakes claim to North Pole. God Help the future of mankind. Super tankers breaking through the ice to remove over a potential of 500 billion barrels of oil,natural gas and every natural mineral deposits one can think off. This wonderful natural graet wilderness should be left alone.
NO to the exploitation of OUR pristine Arctic territory.
NO country should own this great wilderness.
POWER should not decide who owns the Arctic.
For ( Christs sake ) leave it alone and to hell with Russias/ Canadian/ American claims. Leave to the likes environmental friendly nations of Norway and Denmark to monitor.
Everyone should kick up a stink. Moan and complain like furry . Super Powers do not give a toss about the Arctic and futher GW.
Support and complain.
C
Your keen interest in protecting the Artic (and generally the few remaining unspoilt parts of the earth) is refreshing and inspiring! We are all weather enthusiasts and the weather is linked with the environment so we should aim to protect it. Unfortunately, most people are more likely to go shopping than take action.
I think that the view that 'it won't make any difference' is wrong and defeating.
One way of taking action is to become member of environmental organisations such as WWF or Greenpeace as they can voice our concerns.
Karyo
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The most impressive thing is this very below average month has come on the back of the warmest 12 month period ever---that is the more re-assuring thing IMO.
I am delighted to see a below average July. From April 2006 till April 2007, it felt like a significant event to get a below average day never mind month!
Let's just hope that it won't take us another year to achieve a below average month.
Karyo
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WSI has issued a revised forecast which expects less tropical activity than they initially expected a few months ago. WSI is a private forecasting company.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070724/sc_nm/...es_forecasts_dc
It will be interesting to see if NOAA will follow with a revised forecast.
Karyo
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SF
Where are these widespread +10-15C anomalies? The pattern of the antarctic was of cooling over the last 40 years...only coastal regions have warmed [probably down to ocean warming]. Also there are records galore being broken/matched in the southern hemisphere.....for cold.
We may not see widespread cold winters ever again...but I have a wager that we will. Surprises happen as we know....look at this summer.
BFTP
I have to say that no matter how much I am worried about global warming I agree with what you say. The expectation was that Summer 2007 would be one of the hottest thanks to the way this year started and especially April's weather but looked what happened. We may even have a below average July CET.
Karyo
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I am very interested in this large area of storms moving north. Recon the met office will put out a warning before long maybe.
This is associated with the low in France. It will affect the southeast but hopefully the worst affected areas will narrowly escape.
There are some heavy showers to the east/northeast of me but they don't seem to move very much.
Karyo
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A band of light rain has passed through and now it is dry and bright with some decent convection kicking-in. This afternoon should have my favourite summer weather: slow moving heavy showers.
Karyo
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Met Office have finally issued new weather warnings for Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire and also S Yorkshire.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/em/...t_warnings.html
At long last! What took them so long? The rain over Lincolnshire is intensifying all the time.
Also, some very heavy showers just south of Cardiff.
Karyo
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Hi Karyo
Yes it isn't looking good now as this thing swings north. There are flood warnings out for the river
Hull which is depressing news for those in the already flooded areas
Regards
Brian
hi Brian,
heavy rain now, very fast deterioration. The rain shouldn't get as heavy here as further south but it is likely to stick for many hours which may become dangerous for flood prone areas.
Karyo
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The 15:30 radar shows the rain is intensifying now over Lincolnshire. The whole band is moving northwards so Manchester can expect a thoroughly wet evening!
I find concerning the persistence of the rain over east Wales - thinking of the river Severn!
Karyo
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Seems to be gathering strengh as it moves northward rather than weakening. Just outside Sheffield at the moment and the shield is up and running deflecting the first pass but a sterner test is on the way.
I wonder if the warning will come back into force for Yorkshire
Rain stopped for a couple of hours in Manchester as the first band moved to the west and south (pivoting rain bands around the low). However, it is starting again now as the next band is coming from the east/southeast. The Pennines are gradually dissapearing to the east of me as the rain approaches.
I am not expecting thunder though.
Karyo
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It will turn wet in the Lincolnshire area shortly according to the radar. The South coast is drying up.
Moderate rain here turned much lighter here now as the rain band moved west. More to come from the southeast later.
Karyo
hard winter in the balkans
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Awesome pictures! The East Balkans do pretty well when a Russian high forms and the winds turn easterly. As the wind crosses the Black sea, it picks up moisture and dumps loads of snow especially in Bulgaria and Romania.
I was in Budapest, Hungary, last month, which is further west and bands of snow made it there from the East although not as much as now.
Karyo