memories of 63

--> QUOTE(Paul B @ 8 Feb 2007, 10:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I would place FI as being at Saturday at the moment to be honest, so T+54/T+60 hours. Cold air is never going to be far away from the north and east, and today's system will pull some of that back south and west later on. I suspect this will be hanging around still on Saturday. Where's Saturday's low tracks is still open to a bit of debate, but the key word again seems to be "south". Interstingly, the jet shows some northerly bulges that dissipate just before getting to the Uk. This is allowing the heights over the north Uk to push the LP lower, flattening it and making a beast more likely. The third bulg in the jet (T+56 - 60) doesn't get dissipated as quick, thus catalysing the rapid change in the position of the LP the E of the UK. I can't see why this would happen so quickly and therefore I agree. Model watching (especially for those unfortunates who are 40 miles too far north) will be enthralling obver the next couple of runs.

06z shows the cold front moving more south than before and then pivoting to give more of an E/W split. W. Yorks is under less than -5º C air (950HpA) until Sunday now. I think FI is still T+96 as the change seems too abrupt with what we've seen so far over the last couple of days. edit - sorry I've just looked at the 500HpA charts and I mean FI is t+60

In the immediate future, and I agree that the next few days are critical, I think the GFS is underplaying the height rises to our North. I've been watching this and each run the height gets bigger and more macho. Wouldn't this tend to flatten the LP further, squeezing it into the narrow slice between the jet to our south and the northerly heights! Looking at the progression, this could allow the Scandi HP to encroach from our East giving rise to a beast over the w/e and reloading the cold/less cold battle, but this time over N mids and points north PS tried to post this last night but was kicked off by the server going down

Very slight evidence of an increased Easterly draw to reflect the increased heights to our North, flattening and extending the Scandi HP and squeezing the LP between the Northern height and the southern jet

I agree, it looks wonderfull. Let's start a campaign to make it the main model

OK Robert, How did you manage to get TEITS's quote to seem as if it happened in the future?

I've got a follow up to the post I put on a couple of days ago. I'm now in Mildenhall (Suffolk) and intend to drive back to Leweds Thursday pm or evening. What are my chances?

Is there also early height rises over North Uk/Scandi and spreading back into Greenland?

That's amazing. I'm in Mildenhall this week and we've had nowt

I'm in need of a bit of advice, so if anyone can help (especially TIETS)I'd appreciate it. I'm driving from Leeds to Suffolk tomorrow and I'm thinking of returning on Thursday evening. What do people think of my chances of having difficulties on my return trip? I'd like to know if I should plan to put in blannkets, emergency food supplies, shovel, wellies, etc etc etc

Today's o6z is depressingly similar to the charts we had at the beginning of Novembef (can anyone dig these out?) where we had a trio of LP's circling arounf the BI and not really going anywhere. It seems the end of Winter is going to be just like the start.

My twopenny worth 10.39

Mods - i don't know if this is the right thread so please move if required. Sounds as if Mid US is getting a hammering. I don't want to be flippant or understate the seriousness of what they're experiencing but I'd love 1/10 of what they're getting at the moment!!!! http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6224345.stm

Shuggee, Wonderful idea. I think this should be pinned so that all new members can scan it to find inspiration if they can't think of their own nickname.

I believe in Father Christmas Rick Leming. 2.0 for me :lol: :lol: :lol:

Yipee. Now that SATIG's back online it MUST mean Winter is here. :ph34r: :huh:

How much more fence sitting could there be!!!!! Even chance of wetter or drier and colder or warmer. Is this a forecast?

Rollo, I logged off so didn't see your reply. Yes I was (just) about for THAT winter. I can remember all the schools being closed and using old sacks as toboggans and having massive snowball fights. It's a funny thing though, I was reminiscing about '63 in the pub a few years ago and an older chap said it was nothing compared with 1947. This was then trumped by an even older chap who said that 1935 (?) was even worse than 1947. It would seem that there's always a 'better' winter to talk about. Here's hoping for something startling this year, the last really good one I can remember was '81, when I worked in S. Wales. Work was closed for a week and the village I lived in was cut off for 3/4 days - the only paths made in the snow went straight to the pubs

Viking how do you join SACRA? I'd like to get myself all prepared for the best season of the year - dreich indeed

1947 being mentioned in September!!!! Is this a record

Yes, I think I know what you mean. I was a VERY firm believer in GW up until about 18 months ago. I'm now edging towards the 'normal' oscillation in global climate. I think the planet's ability to absorb short term effects is underrated, although it's always a good idea to use any sort of energy in the most efficient manner possible. I'm not sure about the thousands of years for a change to occur. There was some interesting biological evidence published that indicated a rapid change in some species of beetle, linked to changes in climate. BTW, grapes were succesfully grown by the Romans in Britain only a couple of thousand years ago, before anyone thought of GW!

Gosh Dawlish, I didn't realise I'd stimulate such a detailed discussion from such a 'simple' question. Don't know if I like your armageddon scenario though!!! If I could I'd join SACRA so you know where I'm coming from. If more rapid warming does occur, could this also increase the rate of melting of the Greenland icesheet, decrease salinity of the NA and reduce/stop the THC - bringing about cooler conditions to the British Isles.

Thanks very much for the comprehensive reply. I'll be watching for any devlopments along the llines you mentioned, it could be interesting.

Morning all, Haven't posted since last winter. I don't know if this is the correct thread but I've just read an article about a strong Il Nino event occuring this year. Any thoughts on what impact that will have on our weather systems in the next few months.