memories of 63

Just a quick post to bring this up to the top of the page again. I've noticed that there seems to be a slight warming event over Greenland at the end of the month. Am I reading the chart correctly or is this just wishful thinking?

Damn damn damn. I'm stuck in Swindon this week and have just been told it's snowing at home Any reports from NW of Leeds?

I'll give it a go at 4.0 Deg C

This is addressed to the site engineers/techies. Yet again I've reached deep into my pocket and invested in the NW Winter special. I know I won't regret it. On the GFS Extra chart display there is the option to look at the previous GFS chart. JH has been advising everybody NOT to compare sequential GFS forecasts but to look at 06z to 06z, 12z to 12z etc. I was wondering if it would be possible to have this option available for forecast comparison on the Extra site. Even better, and if this were possible, if the previous (and earlier in 24 hour lumps) forecasts could be called up but with a 24 hour offset, it would be possible to compare directly what is currently forecast with what was forecast up to 4 days previously for the same time - hope that makes sense. Anyway it's something I've been thinking about for a while and don't know if it's technically possible. I can already see difficulties when we get to the low res part of the frecast but I suppose that could be got round with a clever algorythm

Roger, I agree somewhat. I've only experienced freezing rain a couple of times, the worst being 1992 (I think). We were living in Cumbria at the time, on the fells (about 1300 ft asl) about 5 miles SE Brampton. One morning we woke up with it being darker that we expected and when we opened thecurtains, we couldn't see out - very strange. When we got downstairs, we still couldn't see out and I went to open the main porch door ( a VERY old church door). After much effort (it opened inwards), it opened and I was confronted by a sheet of ice about 1 inch thick. Outside, the whole of the house was covered with ice, the ground likewise, and my car (which was outside also) was covered by about 2 inches of ice. I couldn't get the key in the lock, the ground was like an ice rink and it was Cooold. So I turned round and went back to bed. I eventually managed to get the car free of ice by about lunch time. A very interesting experience at the time but I wouldn't want it to happen often as it would be extremely dangerous for anyone trying to travel.

From chionomaniac I reckon that link is just for over the North Pole whereas the NOAA one is the mean average anomaly from 60N to 90N. So it may be slightly warmer over the North Pole but cooler in the latitudes north of 60N. In that case, could the brief warming event at the beginning of November be reflected in the height rises over tepole now?

I've just read John's LRF from 5 Nov and was intruiged by the last sentence. Thought I'd post here to bring the topic up the page. I really think that stratospheric warming will play a big part this winter and hope the more experienced/knowledgeable members can keep us updated.

In addition to cooler seas around the UK, there's colder water up around Greenland/Iceland and the La Nina is much weaker

From what I understand there are massive (I use that word advisedly) beds of methane clathrates (a type of ice that holds methane in a cage structure). The MP of these are just above FP of water and there are fragile so a rise in sub sea temps or earthquakes can destabilise them and cause a huge (catastophic - from the mathmatical definition) release of methane.

Is this an issue with methane clathrates destabilising. If so we're all doomed :o

I'm going for a hopefull 17.1 Deg C

Soooo 16.5 Deg C is the average. Seeing as I punted 14.3 deg C for June and I expect a little further warming and I'm a cold lover at heart who has profound scepticism about AGW. I'll give it a go at 15.5 Deg C

14.2 Deg C for me please

Not sure if this is the correct thread but I can't seem to find the THC thread any more. This is a serious question and I'd like to hear some views. Assumptions - for this query GW is happening Sea temps - especially NA are increasing Arctic ice cap and Greenland ice sheet are melting. THC relies on density/temp differences to keep going Therefore: If the ice sheet over Greenland melts, dumping lots of fresh water in the sinking reagions of the NA then the THC is likely to weaken and eventually stop. This will alter the thermo balance of the NA leading to reduced SST's around the pole and northern latitudes. This will increase likelyhood of HP over Greenland leading to more cold air over N Europe. This will increase snow cover during the Winter months, increasing albedo and increasing heat loss increasing the probability of multi year snow/ice thus 'repairing' the loss of ice at the pole. As the THC takes decades to change strength what is the opinion of the above happening and this leading to a prolonged cooling effect in our regions?

Morning all, I don't usually post to these threads as I find the constant bickering a little tedious. I came across this article this morning however and think it will provide food for thought. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7376301.stm Couple this with all other effects and factor in that gases (like CO2) are more soluble in cool liquids rather than warm and it may be interesting over the next 10 - 20 years (as long as I'm around to see it )

Arrrggghh I thought he was stong enough already

I've just realised it's 1 April damn. 6.3C please

Third time lucky?????????? 4.1C for me

Many thanks WF I'm actually going to Summit which is about 20 miles west of Newark. I'll be spending most of the time indoors but have to go outside for a fag cigarette http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif so I'll pack some thermals.

I'm after a bit of help. I'm off to New Jersey next Sunday (20th) and not sure what to pack - crampons and arctic gear or short sleeves and slacks http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif . Any ideas?

I'll give it a go at 4.1C

Hope it's 5.0 as that was my punt about this time last month!!

John, Any chance of an update? I'd love to see how we've done ofer the last few days.

The largest area of permafrost in the UK is around Grimsby

Sorry John, where can I find that?