minus86BriJ

I'm going to jump in with a light-hearted question before the onslaught of moans, what are the things people like most about snowy weather? As a child of the 80's living in a snowy sweet spot in the east of Ireland I've a good few memories to draw from, beasts, stalled fronts etc etc. For me when there's fresh lying snow with snow falling at a medium rate and light winds there's no better feeling. Your senses take a hit from the dichotomy of the dulled sky mixed with the brilliant white sheen from the snow. The way the acoustics are distorted, absorbed or cushioned if you like by the pack (a dog barking in the distance giving that strange echo effect is one of my favs). I could and have walked in it for hours just soaking up the experience, the fact it's so rare in these parts is what makes it so special.

I'd like to see the model's recent hints at semi favourable ridging leading into Christmas pick up some traction over the next few days (duh!), I'd even bank a cold and frosty one now if it was going tbh. From a wider perspective there is a lot to be optimistic about this winter IMO. Members who were lurking these forums back in the noughties would have sold both kidneys for even a sniff of a scandi high in November and December. The fact neither has delivered a snow event is again IMO irrelevant especially considering their early season timing. The mere fact they even happened is something to celebrate! Top that with positive signals from the main players here on SSWs, swans flying 30 meters higher than normal etc and of course the amazing BFTE last year, anyone posting whingey doomsday rubbish needs either A. Friends or B. a polite kick in the baubles.

Schadenfreude entry #162. Johnp pointed out that the meteorological winter is just 6 days old, an indisputable fact that implies there's plenty of time for the 98% of us on here hoping for cold. Anyway, I for one am fairly optimistic going forward after reading some of the top players assessments of the potential SSW towards the end of the month. Thumbs up emoji!

Best hangover cure ever!!

Absolute whiteout here for the last hour, proper flakes, strong winds, HEAVY heavy ppn, at least 4”. Monsuer, with these beasts you are really spoiling us

Try telling that to us here in Ireland, as far as I can see this weekend will be a like beast #1 sneezing sarcastically on the east coast. It definitely will be stupidly cold for the time of year and there will be accumulations but nothing compared to the craziness that went on here a couple of weeks ago. The foreign visitors who flew in for paddy's day are in for some shock to the system tomorrow! Anyway it looks good for a lot of you in the south of England from this mornings updates, here's hoping you all get your fill.

"snow pervert", lmao at that one

Just to be a kn*bhead for a moment, I'm often tempted to copy and paste the before and after posts of the serial posters on here who emotionally cling to every single run, change their opinion every 6 hours and get upset over output that is over 10 days away that will never ever verify good or bad. When will people learn to accept the models are not designed to predict the weather, they are designed to produce possibilities based on a billion interacting variables that are immediately incorrect from the second they are released. On a different topic I "feel" like we've had the coldest winter since 2010 in my part of the world. We've had more frost and snowfalls than I can remember and if this easterly does by chance spring into life I'll be clocking the winter of 17/18 in the back of the old skull as one of the best in my memory.

“Models have been all over the place”....the single most posted sequence of words on these forums over the last 15 years. Death, taxes and model inconsistencies.

I understand your frustrations Rochey but unless we get a proper beast or a once in 20 year battleground bonanza we here in the east of Ireland are always going to miss out on the fun. Last night was never in the running for anything truly worth getting excited or more especially disappointed about.

Seems to have stalled a bit just in the right spot (pour moi)

Coming down nicely here now, not heavy but starting to get a covering. Leixlip Kildare.

I'm a huge fan of cold and snow and the only real solace I find in mild winters with poor cold prospects is the disappointment felt by the bitter few who don't deserve another 2010. Plenty of time yet.

Just to boost the spirits even if only a tiny bit, I stumbled on this quote from an American met site this morning. Zero in the way of specifics but nice to see this mentioned in context with the US further outlook. "There is the potential for such a pattern to begin to take shape during the first week in December with a block [an atmospheric traffic jam] anticipated to develop near Greenland," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/stormy-pattern-may-return-to-us-by-second-week-of-december/70003378

I have to say I like wet and windy weather at 4C that freezes you to near death and saturates you to bone, there's pleasure in the inconvenience of it . Saturday was a blissfully miserable day IMO. A whiteout, show stopping blizzard that delivers 3-4 feet of snow would be top of my list but anything in between that and the lifeless zilch we've had to endure this winter will do me nicely. The stormy winter of a few years back was brilliant (obviously apart from the thousands who were affected by it), we hadn't seen a run of storms like that in long time.

Id like to know exactly how these computer models are programmed or more to the point how they work at all. I'm sure there's a few on here who actually know a lot about it so forgive my ignorance before I start babbling. When I think about the nature of prediction programming ie, the prediction is based on past data and in the case of forecasting models it is likely based on an insane amount of interactive added variables ranging from temps, dates, macro models, sun spots etc etc, I can't but imagine that no matter how complex and powerful modern programs and their supporting hardware may be they just don't have enough past data to cover the infinity of possible outcomes. The latest programs might only stretch back as far as 5 - 10 years with data prior to this being re-entered manually(so to speak) including 2 or 3 centuries of basic readings that get more scatty the further back you go. Throw in a few global temperature anomalies caused by volcanic eruptions or minor orbital deviations etc and it would make sense to me that the supercomputers driving the models aren't wrong, they are just starved of relevant data. With that in mind (more specifically in my mind I should say ) the current easterly meteorological setup in our neck of the woods can only but cause the models to struggle. Easterly airflows aren't altogether rare in the UK and Ireland but they are without question in the minority (they seem to be popping up in summer more recently just to add a little salt to the coldies wounds) so it would stand to reason the models will overhype the westerly influence and bluff it's way through the outcome of a west v east standoff. Judging by the past week's output I reckon the models in these situations default after every 2 or 3 runs and start over after running comparisons between their control run predictions and T0's (which I assume they constantly do).

I have to agree with you on this Rapodo, at least to some degree. Looking for exact or close to exact weather conditions for such a small area (uk & Ireland) beyond 4-5 days is futile. When you consider the complexity of any one individual low/high pressure system and it's infinity of cause and effect variables with relation to its intensity, positioning, orientation etc, and then factor in its interaction with every other relative system, each with there own constantly evolving variables, it's not hard to understand why it is next to impossible to make an accurate 'long' range forecast. ...That was a long sentence. Yes there are a number of stalwart forces that drive our climate's long term averages (gulf stream, Jet stream, Donald Trump's tweet stream etc) and there are trends and semi predictable general weather patterns (like the current setup and it's forecast round of Atlantic excretions) but when you try digging into the longer term details there is only one word that seems to sum how futile an endeavour it is for me, and that's random. ....That sentence was even longer. I know this is like saying red is red to most netweather members and the ensembles prove how random long term forecasting is anyway but sharing is caring.

My two cats were kittens back in December 2010 when we had a foot and a half of snow here but after letting them out this morning it was like they saw a hard frost for the first time in their lives (crunchy grass?? wtf?). A sad indictment of the "winters" of today. I was a child of the 80's when hard frosts like this mornings could kick in in October. I remember dodging spider webs made visible by frost on my way to school and having ice sliding competitions trying to impress the cute brown eye'd girls well before christmas. Looking back I recall, probably mistakenly, that we would get at least three decent snowfalls every year and the odd serious snowstorm (thundersnow is amazing!). There were of course the years that were mild exceptions but comparatively speaking I don't classify the winters of today as winters at all in the traditional sense. Yes we will get cold and yes it might even snow every now and then but for me winter is no longer winter.

A not too inspiring forecast for next week from the Irish Met below, although I have been known to email them a bunch of charts that verified along with their original way off the mark forecasts. It keeps them on their toes, lol The upcoming cold spell, like any potential cold spell for the UK and Ireland, is always difficult for the models to evolve accurately at this time frame. As has been the case time and time again in these situations the details beyond +96, +120 will be subject to seriously mood altering changes. If I got a quarter of the 1.5 foot of snow I received in 2010 Id be happy! Actually a good blast of cold air to shake everyone up and make the fashion accessory scarf wearers indistinguishable from the rest of us would almost be good enough. Met.ie "Turning colder for Monday & Tuesday with a northwesterly wind setting in. These will bring showers, some wintry, to northern and northwestern parts of the country, while other areas will stay mostly dry and bright. Afternoon temperatures will be around 2 to 5 degrees and night time will bring widespread frost. Outlook for Wednesday to Friday: there are indications that showers or scattered outbreaks of rain will extend further inland at times on Wednesday. It also looks to become a little milder for a day on Wednesday with southerly winds, before northerly winds set in again on Thursday continuing the cold and drier spell with afternoon temperatures in the low single figures and night time temperatures well below freezing."

Synoptically this set up is the holy grail for snowlovers.....only its 6 weeks too late for most of us. If we had this setup in January we'd already be well into a big freeze with plenty of lying snow and a serious snowstorm on the way with no let up in sight. As it is we have the worst kind of weather, 3 degrees and rain with a wind chill well below zero... Am I just moaning? U bet your bal*s I am.

Weather monkey "Hurricaine is impossible as they are by definition tropical but the winds in the Met Office warning are gusting to hurricane strength - forecast as frequently 60-70mph or 80+ . Poor choice of words by RJS maybe and I'm sure he will place caveats in future" Im pretty sure RJS knows the definition of the word hurricane. He was obviously refering to relative wind strength. I just looked up the word pedantic myself.... Anyway ECM looks interesting and the general trend has being ebbing towards cold over the last couple of days in the models.

Exactly the same here Beaufort, no snow is one thing but not even getting a frost is laughable after all the hype. It is was it is I suppose and I am generally quite realistic bout how many variables have to come together for my part of the world to get a decent pasting but it still sucks when you're surrounded by streamers that won't play ball. What is your location Beaufort?

It has been Lashing sleety rain here all day and its absolutely hammering down right now.... BIG disappointment when you consider there's blizzards going on only a healthy cycle away. Id say im happy for others 40 miles up the road but im not. Its cold but its not bitter enough, i am.

Can anyone see anyway that the cold air might reach 50-100 miles further south west tmoro so more of the east coast gets in on the action. It wud almost be a tragedy to be a half an hour drive away from 20cm of snow with buckets of rain at 2c hammering down just to remind U how close U were

Met eireann rarely get their longer range forcasts of cold scenarios right. If I was to believe everything they said over the last week we'd of seen piles of the white stuff already so their milder outlook for the weekend should be treated disrespectfully. That said I never expect snow on this boulder in the Atlantic until there's a snowball hurtling towards my girlfriends face.